ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE STUDY

1. ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE STUDY

2. WEC Sustainable Energy Goals Accessibility – Reliable and universally affordable modern commercial energy services Availability – Energy quality and reliability requires a diversified energy portfolio Acceptability – Successfully address environmental goals and public attitudes

3. Energy & Climate Change Study:The Study Team • Study Director: Malcolm Keay, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies • Study Team Members: Argentina Australia Canada Côte d’Ivorie Croatia Denmark Egypt France Finland Germany Greece India Italy Japan Korea (Rep.) Kuwait Lithuania Macedonia Rep. Netherlands Portugal Romania Saudi Arabia Spain Switzerland Thailand United Kingdom USA

4. Prologue 1. Throughout history, mankind’s ability to master its environment has depended on energy availability. 2. The World is precariously perched at the top of an increasingly unstable global energy access pyramid. 3. The driving force for technological modernization is resolution of the global energy gap. 4. Electricity is the essential agent for this global energy transformation.

5. Energy and Climate Change -- Key issues • What drives emissions (Part 1) • What determines choice of policies (Part2) • Assessment of policies against WEC criteria (Part 3) • Conclusions and recommendations (Part 4)

6. Inextricably Linked Global Needs • Restore and protect the integrity of the earth’s life-support systems • Manage resources crucial to human welfare • Eliminate poverty • Stabilize population • National Research Council, Board on Sustainable Development

7. Part 1: Sectoral shares of CO2 Emissions • Electricity: 41% -- Largest emitter, but provides greatest reduction leverage. • Transport: 21% -- Growing everywhere. Key challenge for emissions reduction. • Industry: 18% -- Fast growth in developing countries offset by increasing efficiencies everywhere. • Buildings: 13% -- Steady growth. Wide variations in emissions intensity.

8. Part 1: The Importance of Electricity • Growing share of energy market and emissions (growth in renewables & nuclear not fast enough to offset coal growth) • Technical flexibility of energy source + potential for substitution = huge potential for lowering emissions. • Key factor in national emissions variation

9. Business-as-usual Projection Electrified World vs. Business-as-Usual in 2050

10. Sustainable EnergyTechnology Portfolio

11. Part 2: Policy Priorities • Incent technology development and deployment • Decarbonize electricity • Restrain transport emission growth & develop carbon-free alternatives

12. PART 3: Current Policy Limitations • Ineffective and Short-sighted • Confusing and Unfocused • Impose Equity Issues • Inadequate to the Scale of the Issue • MUST HARNESS THE ENLIGHTENED SELF-INTEREST OF EVERY COUNTRY

13. MEETING THE POLICY CHALLENGE • ELIMINATE ENERGY POVERTY • USE TIME & LOCATION FLEXIBILITY • PRICE CARBON & ESTABLISH GLOBAL MARKET • APPLY WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION MODEL

14. Part 4: Strategic Messages • Keep all energy options open • Balanced approach – focus on sustainable development • All countries are different; no single approach works equally well everywhere • Need to assess and monitor impact of policies on all three A’s, including social development • Emphasize urgency.

15. Roadmap to a Low Carbon Future • Phase One: 2015 – Credible commitments & slower CO2 emissions growth • Phase Two: 2030 – Emissions stabilization • Phase Three: 2050 – Sustainable emissions reduction, a low carbon economy

16. Global CO2 Emission Scenarios Emissions GtCO2/yr 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 A B Emissions Stabilization Low Carbon Economy 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 A – Business as usual B – Roadmap to low carbon future