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This report provides an overview of the recent rainfall patterns, current conditions, and prediction update for the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on precipitation patterns over the past 90, 30, and 7 days, as well as NCEP/GFS model forecasts. The report also discusses the climatology and the onset of the Australian monsoon.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 02, 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall over large parts of India, southern Pakistan, and northeastern China have been below normal. Sporadic pockets of above normal rainfall are noted over Nepal, Burma, southeastern China, and in the maritime Indonesian islands.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days rainfall, along the western Ghats region of India and along parts of northeastern India and Nepal were above normal. According to the India Met. Dept.(IMD), as of 2nd of September, the cumulative monsoon rainfall, for India as a whole, so far this season, continues to stay at 16% below long term mean.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall was above normal along the Western Ghats and in the southern central India. Rainfall was below normal for the week over northern India.
Atmospheric Circulation Due to technical issues, this map is delayed is not updated as required.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall over large parts of India, southern Pakistan, and northeastern China have been below normal. Sporadic pockets of above normal rainfall are noted over Nepal, Burma, southeastern China, and in the maritime Indonesian islands. For the past 30 days rainfall, along the western Ghats region of India and along parts of northeastern India and Nepal were above normal. According to the India Met. Dept.(IMD), as of 2nd of September, the cumulative monsoon rainfall, for India as a whole, so far this season, continues to stay at 16% below long term mean. In this past week, rainfall was above normal along the Western Ghats and in the southern central India. Rainfall was below normal for the week over northern India. For the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall over much of India and Burma. It is not clear by how this will decrease the general deficit of seasonal rainfall over India.
