Wood Turtle-Human Interaction and Policy

1. Comp Sci 699 Fall 2012 Wood Turtle-Human Interaction and Policy

2. Is it possible to have sustainable population of Wood Turtles while also having a sustainable (continuous) growth rate for the human population in Vilas County, WI?

3. Model Methodology • Time Scale • Refined down to hours. • Ticks= Hours • Days, months, years tracked

4. Model Methodology • Turtle Behavior • Daily life: eat, bask, sleep in proper • Mating during proper periods: turtles are male or female, during mating periods females have a chance of being “fertilized” if male turtles nearby • For every “fertilized” female new turtles are spawned into world during proper months; number of turtles based on survival rates past first 5 years (we only model turtles that would survive into adulthood, since there is such a high mortality rate in the first 5 years)

5. Model Methodology • Turtle Behavior (cont'd) • Hibernation during winter • Natural lifespan: ~40 years • Can mate if over 15 years old (sexual maturity) • Original population in world starts at age 15 so mating can be observed immediately • Day-to-day survival chance high if not in contact with human development

6. Model Methodology • Human Behavior • Humans move in beginning of each year • If unaffected by policy, prioritize their settlement in following order: • Near other humans AND lakes • Near lakes • Near humans • Any suitable land cover (not marsh, water, etc.)

7. Turtle Memory • Default • Last place food was found is remembered • Return to these locations when hungry • No more food at location initiates new search • Left Leaning walk • Likely the most realistic memory model

8. Turtle Memory • Food Zones • Similar to Default • Multiple food locations remembered • Exhausts memory bank before initiating new search • Avoid Humans- • Turtles crossing developed patches get confused • Intended location lost, random heading • If turtle survives, will remember developed patch as “bad” • Will avoid “bad” patches in the future

9. Wood Turtle-Human Interaction • Passing through developed patch increases chance of turtle death • Developed patches can no longer be food sources • Using Avoid Humans memory model • Possibility for light confusion • Navigating around developed patches challenging with high Human densities

10. Policies • No Build • Our experimental control for the turtle population • No new incoming humans • Free Build • Humans can build anywhere, based on what is most desirable • Most desirable: Near other humans AND Near water (lakefront) • Close to water > Close to humans

11. Policies • 600m Buffer • No new development can occur within 600m of a lakefront • Keeps entirety of Wood Turtle range free of development • 300m Buffer • No new development can occur within 300m of a lakefront • Keeps “inner” 300m free from development

12. Policies • Spaced Housing • No new buildings within 180m of each other • Promotes urban sprawl • Ideally keeps corridors open for Wood Turtle movement • Grouped Housing • New buildings can only be constructed next to a newly arrived human • Limits urban sprawl

13. Experimental Control • Ran simulation with No Build to analyze Wood Turtle behavior • Runs varied • Initial spawn of turtle population random. Problems occurred when near human development • Mating population of turtles can not successfully reproduce near humans • Final mean population decreased slightly after 40 year

14. Is it possible to have sustainable population of Wood Turtles while also having a sustainable (continuous) growth rate for the human population in Vilas County, WI?

15. Our Answer • Modeled “Current” conditions • Free Build Policy • Default Memory • Turtle Population reaches 0 after 71 years • Can not complete lifecycle • No basking • No nesting sites • No food • Poor water quality • Without change to building policy, there can not be a sustainable populations of Wood Turtles while the influx of humans remains constant

17. Turtle Friendly Policy • 600m Buffer • Turtle populations after 40 years remain comparable to control • Slight population increase • Most Wood Turtle activity takes place within 600m of water • Little human encroachment allows greater stability to the turtle population • May not be feasible to implement • Socially unacceptable • Push back from public

19. Middle Ground? • 300m Buffer

20. Middle Ground • Grouped Housing

21. Least Effective Policy • Spaced Housing • Encourages urban sprawl • More humans and roads • Bad conditions for turtles • Success for this policy could increase with better understanding of turtle memory

23. Future Extensions • Future Additions • Integration with GIS • Obtain better data using radio telemetry • Map turtle locations over time • Window into actual turtle memory • Simulating Economy/ Human Satisfaction • Compare versus Turtle population • Policy is a tradeoff between the human and turtle factor but we are only really looking at turtles • Run the model more realistic turtle population for long periods of time

24. Questions?

25. To Do • Add ppt slide with more extensions • Protected lakes/ areas • Differential survival for males and females • Females roam farther, subject to higher mortality chance • Point out research needs