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When the Dust Settles, What the Election Means for Agriculture

Stephen Frerichs October 2012 ASFMRA Annual Meeting. When the Dust Settles, What the Election Means for Agriculture. Does the Election Matter to Agriculture?. Farm Bill Completion Entitlement Reform Tax Policy Regulation. Last Election – Significant Agriculture Committee Changes.

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When the Dust Settles, What the Election Means for Agriculture

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  1. Stephen Frerichs October 2012 ASFMRA Annual Meeting When the Dust Settles, What the Election Means for Agriculture

  2. Does the Election Matter to Agriculture? • Farm Bill Completion • Entitlement Reform • Tax Policy • Regulation

  3. Last Election – Significant Agriculture Committee Changes • Republicans gained Majority in House • Congressman Lucas becomes House Ag. Committee Chair • Congressman Peterson becomes ranking member • Senator Lincoln loses her Seat • Senator Stabenow becomes Senate Ag. Committee Chair • Senator Roberts becomes new ranking member

  4. This Election??? • House majority likely to stay with Republicans • Senator Stabenow up for re-election • Majority in Senate up for grabs • Currently 53 Democrats/ 47 Republicans • 10 current senators are not running for re-election (6 Democrats, 3 Republicans, 1 independent) • 10 Republican seats are up for election • 23 Democratic seats are up for election

  5. Senate Seats up for Re-election * Retiring; ** Lost Primary

  6. Federal Budget Shortfall – The Need for Tax and Entitlement Reform 2012 Receipts $2.450 Trillion (15.7% GDP) Outlays $3.540 Trillion (22.9% GDP) Deficit $1.090 Trillion (7% GDP) Debt $11.318 Trillion (72.8% GDP)

  7. Congressional Budget Office Projections

  8. Major Spending Categories – CBO Baseline

  9. Fiscal Cliff – Immediate Choices? • Expiring income, capital gains and estate tax rates • Employee payroll tax relief expires at end of 2012 • Expiring expanded unemployment benefits • Medicare physician payment rate slated for reduction • Mandatory “sequestration” spending cuts effective Jan. 3, 2013 • Possible need for Federal debt limit increase

  10. Expiring Tax Cuts

  11. Possible Cost to Extend

  12. What About the Farm Bill? • Big Picture – small potato • Too much about food stamps?

  13. Farm Bill Completion • Lame Duck – 2012 Farm Bill • 2013 Farm Bill • 2014 Farm Bill

  14. Probability of Farm Bill Completion

  15. Farm Bill Baseline

  16. House v. Senate Committee Savings 10 Year Savings, CBO Scoring of Senate Bill and House Chairman’s Mark

  17. Thank You

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