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Presentation by Antonio Divino Moura

Presentation by Antonio Divino Moura former IRI Director General and current Director of INMET (Brazil). The IRI Mission.

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Presentation by Antonio Divino Moura

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  1. Presentation by Antonio Divino Moura former IRI Director General and current Director of INMET (Brazil)

  2. The IRI Mission IRI’s mission is to enhance society's capability to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts of seasonal climate fluctuations, in order to improve human welfare and the environment, especially in developing countries. L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y

  3. IRI Underpinning Activities • climate prediction • climate and environmental monitoring • impacts • decision support/tools • institutions/policy • capacity building/outreach/education

  4. IRI DYNAMICAL CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM HISTORICAL DATA Extended simulations Observations GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELS 2°- 3° lat-lon 18 -19 vertical layers ECHAM3.6(MPI) ECHAM4.5(MPI) NCEP (MRF9) CCM3.2(NCAR) NSIPP(NASA) COLA2.x PERSISTED GLOBAL SST Persisted SST Ensembles 3 Mo. lead POST PROCESSING -Statistics -Multimodel Ensembling -graphics FORECAST SST TROP. PACIFIC (NCEP dynamical) TROP. ATL, INDIAN (statistical) EXTRATROPICAL (damped persistence) Forecast SST Ensembles 3/6 Mo. lead REGIONAL MODELS AGCM INITIAL CONDITIONS UPDATED ENSEMBLES (10+) WITH OBSERVED SST

  5. FORECASTS in the context of potential IMPACTS Green (brown) shows areas of persistent OBSERVED above average (below) rainfall and for which the FORECAST shows the upper (lower) tercile to be most likely in the coming season.

  6. Capacity Building Training in the Met/Climate Community Training others involved in the End-to-End process of society adapting to new information – including related academic communities, media, decision-makers Courses, training products, collaborations L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y

  7. L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y

  8. Model Output Statistics Applications

  9. An Integrated Approach for Managing the Impacts of Climate Variability In Ceará, Brazil PARTNERS Brazil USA Objective - to support the continued development of Ceará’s societyand economy by reducing its vulnerability to recurrent droughts. L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c i e t y

  10. RSM Precipitation Forecast from Jan for Feb-Mar-Apr

  11. Jan-Dec Water Macro-Allocation Plan --- Developed July-Oct Ensemble Forecast COGERH Water Agency Demand & Priority Scenario FUNCEME/IRI Assess Feasible Allocation Reservoirs Simulation & Optimization Communicate Water Committee Feedback to revise offers When negotiations conclude Water Users Irrigation, Permanent Annual Allocation User j gets Wj m3 water pj% reliability for price R$ With specified monthly pattern and priority for failure • Propose Contracts: • Desired Reliability • Desired Price Water Users Industry, Canning Revise Revise Revise

  12. Jan-Apr Drought & Agricultural Guidance using RSM Forecasts

  13. Results • Forecasts influence optimal land allocation.

  14. Ceará Economic Structure Evolution of the Sectorial GDP (PIB); Base: 1985 = 100 (Source: IPLANCE) El Niño Index

  15. Dengue Early Warning System MosquitoAedes aegypti • main vector of dengue and also yellow fever • peridomiciliar, diurnal bite • adult female feeds on human blood • live in recipients: water in used tires, bottles, wholes in trees, ...

  16. Modeled Distribution of Potencial of MosquitoAedes aegypti

  17. Forecast valid for Dec2001-Feb2002 density of aedis aegypti Made in Sept 2001 based on Climate forecasts

  18. Health and Climate Programme, West AfricaPurpose • To create the knowledge and capacity, and therefore the opportunity, for health organizations, and their partners, to predict, prevent and manage adverse climate-influenced health outcomes* *E.g. morbidity, mortality, nutritional status, birth weight, etc.

  19. The spatial distribution of Meningococcal meningitis epidemics in West Africa Epidemic meningitis Affected districts (n = 1232 / 3281) Reported to district Reported to province WHO - MDSC LSTM MoH Molesworth, A.M. Thomson, M.C. Connor, S.J. Cresswell, M.C. Morse, AP. Shears, P. Hart, C.A. Cuevas, L.E. (2002). Where is the Meningitis Belt? Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene96, 242-249

  20. Vaccination starts not preventable The forecasting principle Early_______________ Peak_________________Late______________ 7000 6000 5000 4000 Cases -Rain______ 3000 -Rain______ 2000 +Dust 1000 0 2 Dec. January April May February Dec. January March April May

  21. Predictability of Sahelian rainfall using experimental data from IRI. O. Ndiaye, L. Goddard and N. Ward, in prep

  22. Greater Horn of Africa Project Objectives • Improvement of regional climate models and products • Increased availability and application of tailored products for reducing vulnerability to climate extremes and adapting to climate change. • More effective applications of climate products and services to reduce disaster losses and promote sustainable development.

  23. Problem area User(s) Requirement Application 1) Areas of high Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak risk Red Sea Livestock Trade Commission Predict RVF risk areas 3-6 months in advance Identify and treat RVF outbreaks before regional trade barriers are imposed 2) Livestock fodder availability Pastoral communities in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia Narrow the confidence interval of the current Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) 90 day fodder outlook using a seasonal forecast Provide improved 90 day early warning to nomadic pastoralists and sedentary agro-pastoralists of expected fodder conditions 3) Livestock fodder availability Organization of African Union/Inter-African Bureau of Animal Resources (OAU/IBAR) Provide 3-6 month early warning of major regional fodder shortages Support IBAR livestock purchase programs 4) Pastoralist livelihood system stress USAID, other donors and international emergency assistance organizations Simulate climate shock impacts on pastoralist livelihood systems and food security Contingency and operational assistance planning Objective 2: Tailored Products

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