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Migration in version 4

Migration in version 4. Wednesday 23 rd October 2013 POPGROUP user group, Birmingham Ludi Simpson. PGv4 forecast routine changes. Made closely comparable with ONS, NRS – but not exactly! Age at end of year, eg for 2014-15: June 30 th 2015

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Migration in version 4

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  1. Migration in version 4 Wednesday 23rd October 2013 POPGROUP user group, Birmingham Ludi Simpson

  2. PGv4 forecast routine changes • Made closely comparable with ONS, NRS – but not exactly! • Age at end of year, eg for2014-15: June 30th 2015 • Deaths: age the deceased would have been at end of year (not as published) • Migrants: those surviving to the end of the year, age at end of year (as published) • ‘Newborn’ deaths and migrants no longer appear in PG data entry sheets • Births during the year are ‘age 0’

  3. PGv4 forecast routine changes • Fertility rates in PGv4 are applied to the average of start year and end-year numbers of women • Migration rates in PGv4 applied to the population surviving to the end of the year • Impact of these changes on the results: quality assurance

  4. Migration in PG up to version 3.1 (now) • Obligatory schedule of rates • Rates may be over-ridden by entering counts for any or all years • Most users do enter counts of migrants each year (?) • An age-sex profile of counts is optional • ‘Trend age sex’ distributes a total in future years according to the last given age profile • Operation: rates are applied to the area population • Issues • The in-migration rates are not rates • The population at risk is the UK or the rest of the world, not the area • Even when an age-group count is given by the user, single-year populations can be distorted

  5. Solution for in-migration from the UK, in PGv4 • Obligatory schedule of rates • Rates may be over-ridden by entering counts for any or all years • An age-sex profile of counts is optional • Operation: rates applied to a reference population (usually UK) • Extra sheet for Reference population: UK projection taken from standard national files • Standard rates: taken from standard national files and adjusted by user • Data Modules will calculate the rates for each local authority • Most users will only notice that the rates are smaller numbers

  6. Solution for in-migration from overseas, in PGv4 • PGv4 will not require the user to have a world population projection! • PGv4 will not allow rates of in-migration at all • The schedule sheet will hold a percentagedistribution for single years of age and sex, adding to 100%, to distribute total counts • The standard national files will hold a relevant national distribution – eg. Census or ONS/NRS estimates • On Groups and All-Group sheets: • Counts of totals or age-sex groups may be entered (blank will be taken as a total of 0) • Neither differentials, nor Standardised Migration Ratios • It will look different, but may not affect users who already use counts?

  7. For migration discussion groups Share experience and questions stimulated by Eddie’s presentation, and by your questions, eg: • Flows vs rates • Which migration assumptions (e.g. how long a past average? What to constrain to – housing, jobs or something else? Zero total net migration while maintaining migration’s age structure). • Practicalities of understanding migration in POPGROUP – inputs and outputs. • How important is it to know net migration’s age structure (currently only on the dump file). • Using census data, or successive population estimates, to model migration for small areas

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