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The 2005/06 British Election Study

The 2005/06 British Election Study. David Sanders Paul Whiteley Harold Clarke Marianne Stewart. Outline. BES Objectives Overview of proposed study design Continuity Substantive innovation Methodological innovation Why internet surveys are necessary now

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The 2005/06 British Election Study

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  1. The 2005/06 British Election Study David Sanders Paul Whiteley Harold Clarke Marianne Stewart

  2. Outline • BES Objectives • Overview of proposed study design • Continuity • Substantive innovation • Methodological innovation • Why internet surveys are necessary now • Increasing response rates

  3. BES Objectives • Study long-term trends in British voting behaviour • Explain the election outcome • Explain party choice • Explain turnout • Examine election effects on British politics

  4. Continuity With Previous BES • Core survey uses national face-to-face probability sample • Primary instrument is post-election face-to-face survey • Significant over-samples in Scotland and Wales • Retain all key questions that are part of long-run series since 1964. • Retain long-standing questions on ideology, economic perceptions and issue positions, introduced after 1979. • Retain questions added in 2001 to explain turnout and to explore attitudes towards elections, parties, and the democratic process.

  5. Substantive Innovations • Explaining party choice: enhanced measures of valence judgments (e.g., public service delivery), the sources of valence judgements (e.g., leader and party heuristics, role of emotions) and party campaigns • Explaining turnout: enhanced measures of civic duty, efficacy and their sources • Explaining attitudes towards British democracy: enhanced measures of political trust and orientations towards politics and democracy • Results of Consultation Exercise

  6. Methodological Innovations • New steps (including modest financial incentives) to boost response rates and increase the representativeness of the face-to-face sample. • Survey mode comparisons between face-to-face and internet surveys • Sampling frame comparison between ‘conventional’ internet sample and internet users drawn from probability sample • Internet experiments to develop better measures (e.g. feedback to respondents) and ways of assessing media effects.

  7. Why an Internet Survey? • Advantages: Cost, Speed, Experiments • Weaknesses: Demography, Sampling bias • Low response in RDD samples • No theory of low response sample bias • Empirical record basis for evaluation • No significant differences in RDD vs Internet marginals or models (vote, protest, Iraq War)

  8. Increasing Response Rates • BES response rates to 63% in 1997 and 53% in 2001 with postcode addressfile rather than electoral register. • BES response rates 1964-2001 strongly correlated with turnout (r=.75). Both may rise in 2005 but we cannot afford to be complacent. • Experiments and evidence from PSID and BHPS indicates that financial and other incentives boost response rates. We will use a mix of incentives, devised in close consultation with fieldwork agency.

  9. Conclusion: Key Features • Continuity with previous BES surveys • Emphasis on theory-driven data collection • Substantive innovations: valence, turnout, trust • Methodological innovations: internet surveys, experiments, and testing the representativeness of internet instruments • Effort to increase response rates • Early delivery of data to user community

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