Peak Oil: Reaching a fundamental ecological limit; The Community Response

1. Peak Oil:Reaching a fundamental ecological limit; The Community Response

2. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting.

3. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting. • Oil is THE transportation fuel used worldwide.

4. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting. • Oil is THE transportation fuel used worldwide. • Oil makes up almost 40% of our total energy.

5. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting. • Oil is THE transportation fuel used worldwide. • Oil makes up almost 40% of our total energy. • Other energy, industry, mining & agriculture are all oil dependent.

6. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting. • Oil is THE transportation fuel used worldwide. • Oil makes up almost 40% of our total energy. • Other energy, industry, mining & agriculture are all oil dependent. p t

7. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting. • Oil is THE transportation fuel used worldwide. • Oil makes up almost 40% of our total energy. • Other energy, industry, mining & agriculture are all oil dependent. We are here p t

8. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting. • Oil is THE transportation fuel used worldwide. • Oil makes up almost 40% of our total energy. • Other energy, industry, mining & agriculture are all oil dependent. We are here 50%

9. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting. • Oil is THE transportation fuel used worldwide. • Oil makes up almost 40% of our total energy. • Other energy, industry, mining & agriculture are all oil dependent. We are here 50% Human controlled

10. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource that is rapidly depleting. • Oil is THE transportation fuel used worldwide. • Oil makes up almost 40% of our total energy. • Other energy, industry, mining & agriculture are all oil dependent. We are here 50% Human controlled Geology controls

11. There is nothing • that can currently • replace oil to the scale • required. Source: IEEE

12. There is nothing • that can currently • replace oil to the scale • required. • Nothing available with • the equivalent • energy density. Source: IEEE

13. There is nothing • that can currently • replace oil to the scale • required. • Nothing available with • the equivalent • energy density. • Historically has had • a very high EROEI. Source: IEEE

14. There is nothing • that can currently • replace oil to the scale • required. • Nothing available with • the equivalent • energy density. • Historically has had • a very high EROEI. • Energy • Return • On • Energy • Invested Source: IEEE

15. The challenge of scale

16. The challenge of scale

17. Energy Profit Ratio Values Fuel SourceEnergy Profit Ratio* 1970 U.S. oil production 30 Today’s U.S. oil production 15 Oil sands oil production 3 Corn ethanol 1-1.5 Hydrogen from Water <<1 *Source: Cutler Cleveland

18. PeakOil Or Hubbert’s Curve:

19. PeakOil Or Hubbert’s Curve:

20. PeakOil Or Hubbert’s Curve: Founder: ASPO

21. PeakOil Or Hubbert’s Curve: Founder: ASPO Association for the Study of Peak Oil

22. U.S. oil production 1930 - 1957

23. U.S. oil production 1930 - 1957

24. 2X ~ 15yrs. U.S. oil production 1930 - 1957

25. US-48 Peak to Peak 40 years Peak Discovery Source: ASPO/ Colin Campbell

26. Peak Oil:54 of the 65most important oil- producing countries are now past peak.

27. Source: The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)

28. Source: ASPO

31. Correlation between net primary energy production and Economic Growth (GDP).

33. Besides economic risks (high price and volatility), what other vulnerabilities are apparent to determine a course of community action?

35. Vulnerabilities: Transportation: • Food travels 1400 miles on • average from origin • to consumer. • In the 20 largest cities, 40% are urban, 60% are • suburbanites. • Suburbs are oil intensive • living arrangements.

37. Vulnerabilities: • Plastics. • Medicines, and medical equipment. • Chemical feedstocks. • Paints. • High tech devices. • Lubricants. • Numerous industries (e.g., • mining, metal smelting, • glass manufacture, • timber industry). • Oil “pervades • the U.S. economy.”

38. Vulnerabilities: • Plastics. • Medicines, and medical equipment. • Chemical feedstocks. • Paints. • High tech devices. • Lubricants. • Numerous industries (e.g., • mining, metal smelting, • glass manufacture, • timber industry). • Oil “pervades • the U.S. economy.”

39. Vulnerabilities: • Food production: • For every 1 kCal of energy from food, 10-14 kCal • are used as inputs. • tilling, sowing seeds. • Pumping water for irrigation. • Herbicides, pesticides from chemical manufacture. • Nitrogen fertilizers. • Cultivating and harvesting. • Processing, packaging, refrigeration, and • transportation to market. 1

40. Vulnerabilities: • Food production: • For every 1 kCal of energy from food, 10-14 kCal • are used as inputs. • tilling, sowing seeds. • Pumping water for irrigation. • Herbicides, pesticides from chemical manufacture. • Nitrogen fertilizers. • Cultivating and harvesting. • Processing, packaging, refrigeration, and • transportation to market. 10 1

42. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press)

43. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press) Inertia: Humans are linear thinkers, we extrapolate the past into the future.

44. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press) Inertia: Humans are linear thinkers, we extrapolate the past into the future. But, we have been on an exponential trajectory of growth, of economic output, population, and resource depletion.

45. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press) Inertia: Humans are linear thinkers, we extrapolate the past into the future. Our way of life depends on our current system.

46. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press) Inertia: Humans are linear thinkers, we extrapolate the past into the future. Our way of life depends on our current system.

47. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press) Inertia: Humans are linear thinkers, we extrapolate the past into the future. Our way of life depends on our current system. Social leaders and experts that cannot, or will not admit that we have a problem.

48. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press) Inertia In whose interest is it to tell? “Here is an enormous problem, and there is no solution.” (BAU solutions, that is)

49. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press) Inertia In whose interest is it to tell? “Here is an enormous problem, and there is no solution.” (BAU solutions, that is) Message incompatible with campaign speak. Message incompatible with appeal for corporate donations.

50. Why haven’t you been informed? (by government, or the press) Inertia In whose interest is it to tell? Economy is built on consumer culture. Media are corporations that sell audiences to other businesses (through advertising).