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ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation. NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee Current Installed Capacity Requirement/Required Reserves Calculation Methodology Workshop November 18, 2004 David Ehrlich ISO New England. Agenda. Actual and Weather Normalized Peaks

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ISO-NE New England Load Forecast Presentation

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  1. ISO-NE New EnglandLoad Forecast Presentation NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee Current Installed Capacity Requirement/Required Reserves Calculation Methodology Workshop November 18, 2004 David Ehrlich ISO New England

  2. Agenda • Actual and Weather Normalized Peaks • ISO-NE Short-run Energy and Peak Forecast Methodology • Forecast a Seasonal Peak Load Distribution • Based on Historical Weather Distributions • The 50/50 – Reference Case – Most Likely • Do Not Forecast the Actual Peak Day • Summer Weather and Peak Load Distributions • 2004 Weather Normal Summer Peak • 4/04 CELT Summer Peak Load Distributions

  3. More Complete Documentation of ISO-NE Energy and Peak Load Models and April 2004 CELT and RTEP04 Forecasts can be Found on the ISO-NE Website : http://www.iso-ne.com/Historical_Data/forecast/

  4. ISO-NE Econometric Model of Quarterly Energy Aggregate Quarterly to Annual Energy = Number of Households * Energy per Household Energy per Household = Constant + DummyQ2 + DummyQ3 + DummyQ4 + Coeff * Heating Degree Days + Coeff * Cooling Degree Days + Coeff * Real price of Electricity + Coeff * Real Income per Household

  5. ISO-NE Econometric Model of Short-run Peak Load (Cooling Season May-Sep) Typical Daily Peak by Month ( 1992-2004 Non-holiday Weekday Daily Peaks) Create Weekly Distributions by Using Historical Weekly WTHI Distributions Daily Peak = Constant + Monday + Friday + Coeff * CLI * (WTHI-55)**2 + Coeff * CBLI * Base Year Energy CLI: Cooling Load Index CBLI: Cooling Base Load Index Historical Weekly WTHI Distributions based on 37 Years (1963-1999) WTHI: Three Day Weighted Temperature/Humidity Index THI: .5*Temperature + .3*DewPoint + 15 Weights: .59*Current + .29*Lag1 + .12*Lag2

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