Targets and Performance Budgeting

1. Targets and Performance Budgeting 目标和绩效预算 Performance Budgeting Course, APFDC, Shanghai, October 2010 绩效预算课程 APFDC，上海，2010年10月 Prepared by Marc Robinson

2. This session 本节要点 • What are performance targets? 什么是绩效目标？ • When do targets become a form of performance budgeting? 在什么情况下目标会成为绩效预算的一种形式？ • What are the potential downsides of targets? 目标的潜在不利方面是什么？ • How best to set targets 如何最好地制定目标 • Case study of UK Public Service Agreements system 英国公共服务协议系统的案例研究

3. What are Performance Targets? 什么是绩效目标？ • Expected level of performance 预期的绩效水平 • Numerically specified objective 量化的目标 • Timeline for achievement 完成时间 • Examples: 例子 • Increase literate 11 year-olds from 63% to 80% by 2002 到2002年，将11岁儿童的识字率由63%提高到80% • Reduce unit cost of passport processing by 5% by 2011 到2011年，将护照办理单位成本减少5%

4. Don’t confuse targets with 不要把目标和以下内容混淆： • Performance indicators 绩效指标 • All targets are based on indicators 所有目标都建立在指标基础上 • But targets are not indicators 但是目标不是指标 • Indicators don’t set goals or timelines 指标不设定目标和完成时间 • Indicators are only measures 指标只是一种测量方法 • Unquantified objectives 没有定量的目的 • E.g. increase police investigation success rate 如，提高警察侦察成功率 • E.g. improve efficiency of visa processing 如，提高签证效率 • Valid on a continuing basis 持续有效 • Statements of aspiration 愿望陈述 • e.g. zero complaints; abolition of poverty 如，零投诉；消除贫穷

5. Targets and Performance Budgeting 目标和绩效预算 • Targets become a form of PB when 在下列情形时，目标成为绩效预算的一部分 • Targets are linked to the level of funding provided 目标与提供的拨款水平相联系 • Targets are set in the budget process 目标在预算过程中设定 • Targets focus on results – outcomes and outputs 目标关注结果——最终结果和产出 • Issues raised 凸显的问题 • Output targets? Outcome targets? 产出目标？结果目标？ • Relationship between target and funding 目标和拨款的关系 • Consequences of failing to meet targets 未能实现目标的后果

6. Case Study: UK PSA System 案例研究：英国公共服务协议系统

7. Target-Setting in the UK Budget, 1998-2007 英国预算中的目标设定：1998-2007 • Public Service Agreement system 公共服务协议系统 • As operated before radical change in 2007 如2007年大变革之前一样运作 • Performance targets at centre of system绩效以系统中心为目标 • Set as integral part of budget process 设定为预算过程的主要部分 • Targets intended to be related to resourcing 目标要和资源分配联系起来 • A multi-year budget process 多年度预算过程 • Spending Review every 3 years, sets 3 year budgets for ministries 政府部门设定三年期预算，每3年进行支出审核。 • Targets set as part of the Spending Review 目标也作为支出重审的一部分

8. Examples of PSA Targets 公共服务协议系统目标的例子 • Proportion 11 year-olds meeting a defined literacy standard to increase from 63% to 80% by 2002 到2002年，符合识字标准的11岁儿童比例由63%提高到80% • Proportion meeting numeracy standard to increase from 62% to 75% by 2002 到2002年，符合识数标准的11岁儿童比例由62%提高到75% • Reduce health inequalities by 10% as measured by infant mortality and life expectancy at birth 通过出生婴儿死亡率和预期寿命将健康不均等水平降低10% • Reduce crime by 15% and further in high crime areas. 犯罪率降低15%，在犯罪高发区犯罪率降低更多

9. Nature of PSA targets 公共服务协议系统目标的特性 • Focus on small number of targets 注重少数目标 • Outcomes target focus 最终结果目标关注的重点是： • Objective from beginning, but took time 开始就设定的目的，不过要耗费时间 • Initially, many output & even process targets 最初就设定的许多产出以及过程目标 • Improvement targets mainly 主要是改善性目标 • Raises contextual factors issue 提出背景性问题 • Limited controllability of some targets 有些目标的可控性有限 • E.g. unemployment and poverty rates 如，失业率和贫困率 • Government position: 政府的立场： • Outcomes are what matters 重要的是最终结果

10. Comprehensive Spending Review CSR07 Comprehensive Spending Review (1998) CSR 98 Spending Review2000 SR00 Spending Review2002 SR02 Spending Review2004 SR04 30 Objectives A very different framework: Objectives linked to set of performance indicators. Very limited use of targets 600 targets 160 targets 130 targets 110 targets First set of PSAs published Significant changes to CSR model Greater continuity, architecture refined Introduction of standards focus on outcomes Evolution of the PSA System 综合性支 出审核 CSR07 公共服务协议系统的演进 支出审核（2004） SR04 支出审核（2002） SR02 支出审核（2000） SR00 综合性支出 审核（1998） CSR98 30个具体目标 110个目标 130个目标 160个目标 600个目标 采用注重最终结果的标准 更大的连续性、精简的结构 客户服务代表模型的重大改变 一个非常不同的框架：同绩效指标相关的具体目标，对目标的有限应用。 首次公布PSA系统目标设置 Source: drawn partly from Prime Minister’s Delivery Unit

11. How Successful were the PSAs? 公共服务协议系统当初是否成功？ • Great success against many targets, e.g. 许多目标非常成功，如 • Education (literacy, numeracy etc) 教育（识字率、识数率） • Waiting times in health system cut 在医疗卫生机构等待的时间减少 • Even where the targets weren’t fully met 甚至在目标没有完全实现的地方 • And in areas where role of external factors was unclear 在外界因素作用不清楚的领域 • Cancer & heart disease mortality rate reductions 癌症和心脏病死亡率下降 • Crime rates. 犯罪率

12. End of system, 2007 2007年系统的结束 • 2007 Spending Review 2007年支出审核 • Targets completely de-emphasized不再重视目标 • National performance objectives set 国家绩效具体目标设置 • 30, reflecting key policy priorities 30个，反映关键政策的优先性 • Delivery Agreement for each PSA objective 针对PSA系统的每个具体目标都签订绩效协议 • Set of indicators for each PSA objective 对PSA系统的每个目的都设定多个指标 • 2-6 per objective 每个目的设定2-6个指标 • A few of these indicators have targets 有些指标有目标 • But most don’t 但大多数没有

13. Strength of targets/funding link? 目标和拨款的联系强度 • Supposed to be linked: 应该具有联系 • Additional funding → tougher targets 额外拨款→ 目标更难实现 • But outcomes can’t be linked closely to funding 但是最终结果不能与拨款紧密相关 • Contextual factors 背景性因素 • In reality, link is pretty loose 实际上，联系相当松散 • Can’t punish just because targets not achieved 不能因为目标没有实现而进行惩罚 • Process to consider why not achieved 对目标没有实现的原因进行考虑的过程 • Negotiation as part of budget process gives targets muscle 协议作为预算过程的一部分对目标有约束力

14. Criticisms of Target Regime 对目标体制的批评 • Gaming and perverse effects 轻率而反常的效果 • Of course, some truth in this 当然，部分批评是正确的 • But on the whole, exaggerated 但总的来说，言过其词 • Selective target setting & perverse effects 精选的目标设置和反常的效果 • Wrong targets chosen or emphasized 选择或强调错误目标 • E.g. waiting times less important that care 如，等待的次数不如治疗本身重要 • Micro-management 微观管理 • Loss of professional and local autonomy 专业独立和地方自治的缺少 • No space of local choice 没有地方选择的余地 • On service priorities 在服务优先性方面

15. Targets: General Issues 目标：一般性问题

16. Managerial context of targets 目标的管理背景 • Need for plans to achieve targets 设定计划来实现目标的必要性 • Dialogue on achievement versus target 对成绩与目标进行比较沟通 • Performance report 绩效报告 • Discussion of what went wrong 对发生错误的地方进行讨论 • Intervention/support for serious failure 对严重失败进行的干预和支持 • Business Process redesign support 业务流程再设计的支持 • PM’s Service Delivery Unit in UK 英国首相服务提供部 • Incentives for target achievement 对目标完成的激励 • Financial, managerial freedoms etc… 财务自由、管理自由等

17. Outcome Targets 最终结果目标 • Controllability issue 可控性问题 • External factors 外部因素 • E. g. childhood obesity 如，儿童肥胖 • Should all targets be controllable? 所有目标都应可控吗？ • Some argue this 有些人同意这一观点 • But outcomes matter most 但是最终结果最重要 • Handling impact of contextual factors 处理背景性因素的影响 • Identify in advance as “risk factors” 预先识别“风险因素” • Take account of in performance dialogue 在绩效讨论时要加以考虑

18. Choosing the right number 选择正确的目标值 • Agency incentives to set targets too low 代理机构有动机设定过低的目标 • Arbitrary target setting errors 随意的目标设置误差 • “A bit better” “稍有改善” • Big leap: stretch target一大步：延伸目标 • Informed target-setting 目标设置有根据 • Start with good baseline numbers 从良好的基准数字开始 • Identify trends and contextual factors 了解趋势和背景因素 • Consultation with front line 咨询一线人员 • Achievement of more effective units 实现更为有效的单位 • Studies of scope for improvement 研究是否有改善余地

19. Perverse Effects 反常的效果 • Unintended adverse consequences 意想不到的负面结果 • A problem with PIs in general 总的来说，应该是绩效信息存在问题 • Increase with pressure to perform on PIs 随着依照绩效信息而执行的压力增加 • Issue particularly with targets 尤其是与目标有关的问题 • Types of perverse effects: 反常效果的类型 • 1) Unmeasured performance dimensions suffer 绩效维度不可测量 • 2) Lack of incentive for excellence 缺少追求卓越的动力 • 3) Avoiding difficult clients/cases 躲避难以处理的顾客或案例

20. “Gaming” 轻率行为 • Manipulation or falsification of data 操纵或伪造数据 • Some proven episodes of falsification 一些已经证明的伪造事件 • Example of manipulation: 操纵的例子 • “Storming” of accident and emergency wards at time waiting times are measured 意外事故的发生和急诊室等待的次数可能被操纵 • Data is not falsified, just misleading 数据不是伪造的，只是有误导性 • Gaming used by some to also include perverse effects 有些人采取的轻率行为也包括悖谬效果 • We won’t use it that way 我们不会用这种方式

21. 1) Neglect of what is not measured 忽视了未测量的情况 • Example: target for output cost 例子：产出成本的目标 • Quality of output not captured in target 目标中未体现产出质量 • E.g. cost of medical treatment 如，治疗成本 • Easy path: skimp on quality to reduce costs 捷径：对偷工减料以降低成本 • Applies to performance aspects which are 适用于绩效方面 • Not included in the target 未包括在目标中 • Substitutes for measured performance 测定的绩效的替代品

22. 2) No incentive for excellence 没有追求卓越的动力 • E.g. minimized effort on gifted students 如，在天才学生身上付出最少的努力 • In context of targets for minimum acceptable levels of literacy, numeracy etc. 如果把识字率和识数率的最低可接受水平设为目标，就会出现上述情况 • E.g. if the same waiting list target is applied to all hospitals 如，如果对所有医院设定同样的等待名单目标 • Impact on those which already exceed target? 对那些已经超过目标的医院有何影响？ • Applies to all threshold targets 适用于所有门槛目标

23. 3) Avoiding Difficult Clients/Cases 躲避难以处理的顾客或案例 • Literacy targets example again: 还是以识字率目标为例 • Some students difficult to get to the target 有些学生难以达到目标 • Or even impossible (major disabilities) 或者甚至不可能（严重残疾） • Danger that they will be neglected 这些学生会被忽略的风险 • Concentrate on students easier to get to level 主要关注那些更容易达到水平标准的学生 • “Marginal” students bias 对边缘学生的偏见 • Major equity problem 严重的公平问题

24. So, are targets a good idea? 那么，目标是个好办法吗？ • Effects on measured performance clear 对测量绩效的清晰影响 • Perverse effects appear exaggerated 反常效果显得被夸大 • Waiting times example 等待次数的例子 • Research of Kelman & Friedman (2007) Kelman & Friedman (2007) 的研究 • Ethical commitment to service 服务的道德承诺 • Public service motivation 公共服务的动机 • Professional ethics 职业道德 • QA mechanisms 质量评价机制 • Context of target-setting important 目标设置环境很重要

25. Conclusion 结论 • Target setting is a great performance tool 目标设置是一种杰出的绩效工具 • Despite the critics 尽管有批评 • Set targets carefully and selectively 谨慎地、选择性地设置目标 • Gradualism in increasing target role 渐进地提高目标的作用 • Targets appropriate to level at which set 目标在哪一层是合适的