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South Louisiana: Will We Adapt to Ocean Rise?

South Louisiana: Will We Adapt to Ocean Rise?. Edward P. Richards Professor of Law LSU Law Center richards@lsu.edu. Thesis. Worldwide, hard choices need to made about global warming and adaption Ocean rise threatens the lives and communities of hundreds of millions

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South Louisiana: Will We Adapt to Ocean Rise?

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  1. South Louisiana:Will We Adapt to Ocean Rise? Edward P. Richards Professor of Law LSU Law Center richards@lsu.edu

  2. Thesis • Worldwide, hard choices need to made about global warming and adaption • Ocean rise threatens the lives and communities of hundreds of millions • The US must lead by example • Most of south La will be inundated by 2100 • Are we denying global warming by our actions in South LA?

  3. 2100

  4. Is 2100 Realistic? • Green house gasses have a long residence time, so there is a 30-50 year lag • It will be decades before there are meaningful reductions • Southern LA independent of ocean rise • Consolidating river delta on a sinking crustal plate • Huge lose of land due to sinking, NOT erosion

  5. Can Coastal Restoration Save Us?

  6. Coastal Elevations

  7. What about Levees? • Destroy the land on both sides • Cannot resist hurricanes • Katrina did not hit NO, just brushed it • Structural issues • Feds and state will lose interest • Damage to wetlands to get the clay • Require maintenance - LA? USA? • The Dutch do not have hurricanes

  8. Possible Future 1 - Punctuated Catastrophe • Southern LA and NO continue on current lines • Feds put in enough money to limit criticism and keep projects going • Everyone says we are safe now • Region has catastrophic flood • Relative sea level continues to increase • Repeat until there is nothing left to rebuild on

  9. Example to the World • Same thing is happening in Bangladesh • We are trying to avoid regional war over where the refugees will go • India says, what are you doing in LA? • Why don't you build levees and restore our coast? • Can the US say that is crazy and cannot work?

  10. Possible Future 2 • Same as 1, but some local adaptation like floating houses, but no real changes • Catastrophic storm • Population scatters, this time we restrict development, make some land use changes to protect the core • Buys 50 years for the rich and business • Still not a very good example

  11. Possible Future 3 - Strategic Relocation • We think of south LA and NO as if it were one of those island nations that is going to either wash away or be relocated. • We preserve NO-Atlantis • We create cultural NO up river

  12. How Do We Get to 3? • Reimagine land use • Charge mitigation against owners • ?? • Change Incentives in Flood Insurance • You can get bought out before you flood • You can never rebuild • You fill in the rest - this is intergenerational • This is what we want to work on at LSU

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