G lobal A daptatio n In dex ™ (“ GaIn ™ ”) Measuring What Matters

1. GlobalAdaptationIndex™ (“GaIn™”)Measuring What Matters Photo courtesy: Oxfam International Photo courtesy: ugraland Carnegie Moscow Center Moscow, Russia | November 9, 2011

2. The Adaptation Challenge The world is changing Mitigation is not working … Adaptation is essential and urgent Photo courtesy: Citt

3. The Institute The Global Adaptation Institute is a non-profit organization guided by a vision of building resilience to climate change and other global forces as a key component to sustainable development. Our mission is to enhance the world’s understanding of the urgency for adaptation to climate change and other global forces and for the support needed through private and public investments for developing countries. Formed in 2010 First major organization to focus exclusively on adaptation Nonprofit, nonpartisan & private sector led Photo courtesy: thisisbossi

4. Our Work Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Demonstration projects Education and outreach Photo courtesy: Oxfam International

5. Percentage of global population affected by climate-related disasters These Investments Are Not Optional Urbanization, population growth and economic development will and should continue Failure to adapt will lead to an increase in losses We are already suffering an ‘adaptation deficit’ Trend line Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International DisasterDatabase – www.emdat.be, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (Belgium)

6. Adaptation Investment Gap These Investments Are Not Optional $30-100 billion USD per year needed in adaptation investments for developing countries Current flows to developing countries <$1 billion USD per year 1 2 World total Developing countries 1. Allocation estimate is an Institute summation of 2011 annual adaptation allocations by the UNFCCC, World Bank and Global Environment Facility. 2. Parry et al. “Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change.” Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, London and International Institute for Environment and Development (UK). 2009 3. The World Bank Group. “The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change.” 2010

7. Most Investment Needs to Come from the Private Sector Governments must facilitate private sector action through appropriate public policies Greater commitment from UNFCCC and multilaterals on adaptation

8. The Readiness Matrix™ Information to assist private, public and NGO actors in identifying threats and opportunities Rigorous tool to help prioritize investments Simple, iconic index to guide governments on how best to “move the needle”

9. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) State of the World on Adaptation GlobalAdaptationIndex(“GaIn”) A navigation tool to prioritize and measure progress in adapting to climate change Relevant to governments, NGOs, international institutions and the private sector Extensive process to develop, test and review

10. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Criteria for Selecting Metrics and GaInConsultation • Criteria for selecting metrics • Transparent and Authoritative sources • Open Access • Structured and modular • Actionable • Temporal (data tracked through time) • Scalable • Several hundred metrics considered • 38 indicators in current version • Over 100,000 items of data go into GaIn Vulnerability Readiness

11. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Vulnerability Measures Currently 24 measures Quantity and Quality measures for core sectors

12. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Vulnerability Measures Readily expandable Modular design is adaptable to include different inputs 1. Possible indicators for inclusion in future versions of GaIn

13. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Vulnerability Indicators

14. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Readiness Indicators Currently 14 measures 1. Indicators are taken from the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) with permission from The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal. 2. Indicators taken from World Governance Indicators (WGI) with permission from the World Bank. 3. Taken from International Telecommunication Union data with permission from the United Nations. 4. Taken from World Development Indicators with permission form the World Bank

15. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Does the GaIn Vulnerability score relate to the impacts of recent disasters? Testing the Indices Group countries into blocks of similar GaIn Vulnerability Calculate the proportion of their population affected by a climate disaster (1985-2009) GaIn Vulnerability and recent climate risk appear to be related

16. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) The Rankings

17. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Who’s on Top?

18. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Lowest Ranks?

19. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Improvements

20. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Readiness Matrix 2009 The Readiness Matrix The readiness and vulnerability scores are obviously correlated, but there is a scatter of countries across the Readiness Matrix

21. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Recent Performance GaIn performance over time (1995 - 2010) Richness in interpretation of the time series information Vulnerability Low High Readiness Low High

22. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) Vulnerability and Poverty Vulnerability compared with GDP per capita Vulnerability Score All countries (1995 – 2010) Direct measures of income or wealth were avoided in deriving GaIn Nevertheless, still highly correlated Increasing vulnerability Ln(GDP[PPP]) per cap1 Increasing wealth 1. Logarithm of the Gross Domestic Product per capita (in units of 2005 USD) adjusted for purchasing power parity

23. Global Adaptation Index(“GaIn”) The Rankings Income Adjusted

24. Roles for the Public Sector Understand greatest needs for the most vulnerable Determine most efficient use of resources Understand relative urgencies Remove impediments to action by public and private sector

25. Roles for the Private Sector New products & services Risk mitigation Corporate Social Responsibility Ecosystem & environmental markets

26. Demonstration Projects Over 270 projects identified 10 projects profiled for discussion of potential for private sector engagement Currently, a significant lack of purely private sector-led adaptation initiatives

27. Project Selection Criteria

28. Linking Projects to GaIn

29. Partnering with the Institute Advisory Council Council of Scientific Advisors Director and Trustee level of support Global Adaption Index Demonstration Projects Outreach

30. THANK YOU! Questions? Please contact: Dr. Ian Noble Chief Scientist noble.adapt@gmail.com (202) 559-4540 Dr. Bruno Sanchez-Andrade Nuño Director of Science & Technology brunosan@globalai.org (202) 559-4541 Global Adaptation Institute 1747 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 1125 Washington, DC 20006 1-202-559-4549 www.globalai.org