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Analysis Process

Systems Engineering Program. Department of Engineering Management, Information and Systems. EMIS 7305: Systems Reliability, Supportability and Availability Analysis. Analysis Process. UPDATED 01.15.08. Dr. Jerrell T. Stracener, SAE Fellow. Leadership in Engineering.

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Analysis Process

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  1. Systems Engineering Program Department of Engineering Management, Information and Systems EMIS 7305: Systems Reliability, Supportability and Availability Analysis Analysis Process UPDATED 01.15.08 Dr. Jerrell T. Stracener, SAE Fellow Leadership in Engineering

  2. Purpose of Analysis To impact the decision-making process

  3. The Analysis Process • Define the problem and formulate an objective • Identify the analysis options for accomplishing the objective and down-select to the preferred option. • Perform the analysis and draw conclusions • Present the analysis results, both technically and from the layperson perspective

  4. Problem Solving Approach • Define the problem • Visualize • Diagram • Review the problem definition & objective • Formulate possible alternates for solving the • problem and down select to the preferred method • Solve the problem • Review the results and prepare report • Present report

  5. AFSAA TRAINING -- “STEP #1 OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD:DEFINING THE PROBLEM” by Roy E. Rice, Ph.D., P.E. AF OR FAM Course 25 Apr 2005

  6. DEFINING THE PROBLEM Outline • Introduction • The Scientific Method • The Role of the People involved in the Analysis • Explanation of established procedures • The Template • Examples

  7. Decision Making = choosing among alternatives The product of decision makers Choices will be made with or without analysis Key pillars of analysis Helping the decision maker understand problems and candidate solutions Ensure adequate range of alternatives Establish meaningful measures Define issues/ questions Ensure trackability/ traceability The foundations of credible analysis Tools, techniques, and infor-mation surrounding the art of timely, informative support to decision makers Objective / Question Analyst (analysts, scientists, engineers, etc) Models (analytical, simulations, etc.) Data / Assumptions INTRODUCTION Role of Analysis

  8. The Essential Ingredients of Analysis INTRODUCTION Objective/Question Data/ Assumptions Model(s) Analyst

  9. THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD “Operations research is a scientific method of providing executive departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control.” -- Morse and Kimball • Define the Problem • Develop Alternatives • Develop Criteria to distinguish among alternatives • Develop “measures” of the criteria • Determine Analytic Methodology (to include DOE) • Determine “tool(s)” to execute the methodology • Gather data • Exercise “tool(s)” • Analyze results • Report Results Typically we jump to these steps Typically we spend the least amount of our time in this step

  10. THE NATO C2 CODE OF BEST PRACTICES (COBP)- DRAFT

  11. DEFINE THE PROBLEM • Step 1 • “Define Problem” • Step 1a (Roy’s Rule) • “Define the Problem again…because you didn’t do it right the first time!” • Step 1b (Vince Roske’s Rule) • “First find out what the question is - then find out what the real question is!” • EXAMPLE: Close Air Support Study in J8 “It often occurs that the major contribution of the operations research worker is to decide what is the real problem.” -- Morse and Kimball

  12. DEFINE THE PROBLEM- WHY? - • Perfectly right answer to the totally wrong question! • Probably waste resources • Probably lose Credibility • NATO COBP - DRAFT • “In the initial problem formulation iteration, it is critical to begin with an understanding of the REAL problem rather than a determination to apply readily available tools, scenarios, and data.” • “Explicit problem formulation must precede construction of concepts for analysis or method selection…Proper resourcing of problem formulation activities will improve the overall efficiency and quality of the study.” • “An understanding of the decisions to be supported by the analysis and the viewpoints of the various stakeholders is essential to clarifying the study issues.”

  13. THE ROLE OF THE PEOPLE INVOLVED IN PROBLEM DEFINITION • The Decision Maker • Communicate the “context” of the Problem • “Buy into” the Problem and Solution Approach • Provide “Heading Checks” • Have Open Door • Commitment vs. Participation - “ham & eggs” • The Mid-level Manager • Be a Conduit - Major General Robinson (J8) • “What does your FINAL chart look like?” • Must understand analysis - what it can/cannot do • The Analyst • Articulate the Problem back to D.M. • Must put himself/herself in the D.M.’s shoes Problem Definition is an Iterative Process

  14. EXPLANATION OF ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES Principles of Management Science - Wagner • Initial Diagnosis • Identify critical factors • What the principle decisions are • What the MOEs are • Tradeoffs to compare alternatives • Problem Elements • Controllable or decision variables • Uncontrollable variables • Restrictions or constraints on the variables • Objectives for defining a good or improved solution • “Confines” of the analysis - multifold impacts

  15. EXPLANATION OF ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES Naval War College Pub • Decision Objectives - goal of the decision • Problem Context • Stakeholders • Triggers • Influences • Problem Boundaries • Timeframe • Rule sets • Facts • Assumptions • Analytic Objectives

  16. EXPLANATION OF ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES NATO COBP - DRAFT • Context of the study • Geopolitical context that bounds the problem space • Political, social, historical, economic, geographic, technological environments • Actors • Threats • Aim and objectives of the analysis, including the decisions to be supported • Generic C2 issues • Relevant previous studies • Aspects of the problem • Issues to be addressed • Assumptions • High-level MoMs • Independent variables (controllable and uncontrollable) • Constraints on the values of the variables (domain and range)

  17. EXPLANATION OF ESTABLISHED PROCEDURES • Rice’s Method (from Dr. Bill Lesso, University of Texas at Austin) Given: The problem is to: By choice of: Subject to:

  18. RICE’S METHOD Given: set the environment; state your assumptions The problem is to: clear statement of the specific problem to be solved By choice of: determine the decision variables Subject to: determine the constraints and restrictions

  19. RICE’S METHOD Given: - what is the timeframe of the study? - what scenario(s) are applicable? - what alternatives are to be used? - what are “fixed” parameters? - who are the players? - what are the threats?

  20. RICE’S METHOD Given: The problem is to: - not “to analyze” or “to study” - not a statement of fact (e.g., “we have a pilot shortage”) - address the causes not the symptoms - what are you really trying to quantify or measure? - probably related to operational objectives - what...

  21. TYPES OF MILITARY OR PROBLEMS

  22. RICE’S METHOD Given: The problem is to: By choice of: - what are the decision variables? - what does the decision maker get to “play with”? - what does he/she have control over? - what...

  23. RICE’S METHOD Given: The problem is to: By choice of: Subject to: - constraints - hard; inviolable (e.g., distances, 24 hours in a day, ramp space) - restrictions - man-made (e.g., start times) - what are the constraints on the variables? - what might you want to perform sensitivity analysis on?

  24. EXAMPLES

  25. EXAMPLE #1: Mobility Requirements Study - 1991 Given:2005 Scenario with delivery schedules Units to be moved Lift assets, capacities, and cycle times Annualized costs Cost of prepositioning The problem is to: determine whether a proposed mix of lift assets is adequate to meet requirements to close the force on time, and if not, determine the minimum cost mix which will meet requirements By choice of:the number & types of additional lift assets Prepositioning Lift timing & taskings Subject to:Time windows (ALD’s & RDD’s) Air & sea throughput Sustainment build-up policy Initial inventory of lift assets Prepositioning limits Air/sea mode mix PAX arrival limits

  26. EXAMPLE #2: Strategic Force Mix Study Given:the most probable definition of the nuclear threat over the planning horizon and the best estimate of the effectiveness of all possible nuclear weapons to counter that threat, The problem is to: develop the minimum cost strategic force structure (Triad platforms and weapons) By choice of:the number & types of nuclear weapon systems that will make up the strategic arsenal in each year of the period under examination, Subject to:constraints on sufficiency goals by which to measure force effectiveness; START limits, arsenal size and shape; production-destruction-and conversion rates; and the requirement to maintain or improve effectiveness during the transition period.

  27. SUMMARY • Follow the Scientific Method • Step 1: Problem Definition is the most critical step • Problem Definition is an iterative process • Must get Decision Maker commitment • Procedures: • NATO C2 COBP • Rice’s Method “In section 3.4.4 is reported a case where it was nearly decided that it was not worth while to put antiaircraft guns on merchant vessels because they did not shoot down enemy planes. It took an operations research worker to point out that, even though the enemy planes were not shot down, the antiaircraft guns were valuable because they decreased the accuracy of the enemy planes enough to lessen the chance that the merchant vessel be sunk..” -- Morse and Kimball

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