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Prediction of Flare Productivity of an AR from Magnetic Energy Spectra

In this poster session, Abramenko and Yurchyshyn from BBSO present their research on predicting flare productivity of active regions (AR) based on the magnetic energy spectra. They calculate the power index and total spectral energy from the spectra and correlate it with the flare productivity index. They also discuss how to derive the flare index from the spectrum parameters. The results show that the spectrum parameters correlate better with flare productivity than the total unsigned flux.

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Prediction of Flare Productivity of an AR from Magnetic Energy Spectra

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  1. Poster P098, Session: Physics-based “All Clear” Forecasting Prediction of Flare Productivity of an AR from Magnetic Energy Spectra Abramenko, V & Yurchyshyn, V. (BBSO) From Active Regions magnetograms, we calculate the magnetic energy spectrum, E(k). Power index, α, and total spectral energy, W, computed as an integral from the spectrum, correlate with the flare productivity index, A. Flare Index, Am can be derived from the spectrum parameters via: For emerging ARs, the spectrum reflects the future capability for flaring

  2. How to derive the flare index, A, from the spectrum parameters, α and W ? Green- unipolar sunspots; Red – emerging ARs; Blue – decaying ARs; Black – well-developed stable ARs X M Note: For emerging ARs, the spectrum reflects the future capability for flaring

  3. Spectrum parameters correlate with flare productivity much better than the total unsigned flux

  4. Time Variations of the Power Index before a Flare: AR 10930 Before a flare, we observe two periods of enhanced power index – periods of magnetic energy (and complexity) pumping in the photosphere

  5. Spectrum of Multifractality High-Flaring ARs Low-Flaring ARs

  6. Flare Index versus the Degree of Intermittency

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