Climate change adaptation: Land-based primary industry

1. Climate change adaptation:Land-based primary industry Robyn Dynes, Jeremy Bryant, Paul Newton, Val Snow, Mark Lieffering (AgRresearch) Hamish Brown, Derek Wilson (Plant & Food) Tim Payn & Peter Beets (Scion)

2. Land-based industries • Export earnings • $25b • Employment • 156 000 people in Ag, forestry & Fishing • 75 000 in food & beverage manufacture ? • food exports to world • NZ feeds 17 million people [Source: INFOS series http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis. http://www.stats.govt.nz/analytical-reports/labour-market-statistics-2008.htm Food export: AgResearch analysis from: MAF SONZAF (2008), ibid year to 31 March 2008

3. Land-based primary industry = $25b [Source: INFOS series http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis)

4. Our competitive advantage • Temperate growing conditions • relatively free of pests and diseases • efficient production systems • flexible and innovative producers • farmers are consistently adapting • Adverse weather events • Commodity prices • Labour shortage

5. 1990 2001 2008

6. Planted Forests – climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation Impacts: Productivity, weeds, pests and diseases, fire, wind Mitigation: Carbon Forests Energy Forests Lower GHG footprint productivity Adaptation: Breeding strategies Siting and silviculture New technologies

7. Focus on fungal diseases • Cyclaneusma and Dothistroma • Needle cast fungi • Prefers warm humid conditions • Lower needle mass = slower growth • Sites with Cyclaneusma average 20% below maximum productivity • Dothi can be treated (copper oxychloride) • Up to 200,000ha sprayed annually • No treatment for Cyclaneusma • Adaptation responses • Spraying • Breed tolerant genotypes • Plant different species • Move the forests

8. Possible impact of scenarios • Scenarios suggest different impacts on the forests • Regional differences are apparent

9. Adaptation responses for fungal diseases • Breed resistant genotypes • Likely only to offset 25% of fungal impact • Slow process • Change species • Other species do not get infected • Only good if productivity as high as for current species • Move the forests • Focus on warmer sites where rainfall remains @ today's levels • Land price and infrastructure issues • More chemicals • Only works for dothistroma • Added costs, lower profitability

10. Adaptation Strategies for Planted Forests • Improved understanding of climate effects on forest processes • In depth scenario analysis to drive development of adaptation strategies • National approach to development of adaptation strategies • A portfolio of approaches will be needed and will include: • New genotypes, new forest systems, establishment of forests on different sites

11. Broad acre cropping – the arable sector • Grain • Wheat, Barley, Oats, Maize, Peas • Small seeds • Grass, Clover, Vegetable, Forage • Vegetable • Potato, Sweet corn, Onions, Squash, Brassica • Forages • Cereal, Annual ryegrass, Brassica, Maize • Pastoral Phase • Grass/clover pastures

12. Climate change – the impact on cropping • Increased production potential • Doubling CO2 will increase growth 30% • Decreased duration • Crops develop faster in higher temperature • Crop growing areas shift • Increased nutrient demand • More N, P, K and S needed to exploit increased production potential

13. Potential production (fully irrigated) High carbon Rapidly decarbonising Current

14. Water !!! • East coast • Hotter, windier, less rain, more variability • Increased water demand in irrigated crops • Decreased yield in dryland crops • Greater chance of crop failure (multiple years) • West coast • More rain (on average), more variable (???)

15. Water use and production + ET CO2 - Rain CO2 - Irrig + ET - Rain - Fertiliser

16. Adaptation in areas getting dryer with adequate water • Irrigated • Increased crop demand • More efficient irrigation systems • More efficient crop species • Irrigation schemes • Dryland • Less rainfall • Drought avoidance techniques • More resilient crops • Financial buffers • Ensure nutrient supply • Exploit higher yield potential • Longer duration crops • Opportunities for multiple crops per year • Wider variety of suitable crops

17. Fruit Crop Impacts & Adaptations • Poor flowering from inadequate winter chilling • New varieties with lower chill requirements • Increased vegetative vigour • Pruning strategies, dwarfing root stock, chemical flowering • Fruit damage from extreme events (eg hail storms, sunburn) • Longer growing season giving higher quality and yield • Southward movement of production

18. Pastoral sector adaptation – lambs tailed/marked per ewe put to ram • Adaptive strategies: • grazing systems • pasture quality • Nitrogen • ultrasonic pregnancy scanning • Hogget mating. • Improved ewe prolificacy. [Source: sheep numbers and lamb numbers spreadsheets at http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/pastoral/livestock-numbers/, AgResearch analysis. Years are to 30 June] (Photo: AgResearch)

19. Pastoral farming – case study Dairy Farm

20. High/low carbon vs case study Dairy Farm

21. Manawatu dairy farms • Clay & sandy soils 2030 2080

22. Soil map of part of the Manawatu Palmerston North Coastline Manawatu River Sandy soils Clay soils Tararua Ranges 15 km Source: http://gisportal.landcareresearch.co.nz

23. Pasture production - increases in Manawatu Annual production Tonnes dry matter 2000 10.7 2030 12.0 2080 12.4 2000 9.4 2030 10.6 2080 11.5 EcoMod

24. Pasture quality declines • change pasture composition • invasion C4 grasses

25. Pastoral farming – case study Dairy Farm • Manawatu • 128 hectares • calve mid to late July • 260 days in milk • 340 kg milksolids/cow • Conservation of hay and silage • buy-in maize silage • no nitrogen fertiliser

26. Cows produce less milk • despite growing more grass • Less energy = less milk

27. Production and profitability decline

28. Adaptation- the opportunities • more grass • lower quality • = cows must be allowed to eat more • = high risk further decline quality Target = matching pasture cover

29. Adaptation- the opportunities Adaptation

30. Adaptation captures the benefits-more milk Adaptation strategies • Earlier calving date • = more milk in July/Aug • Higher stocking rates • = more milk overall • change with time

31. Adaptation – the bottom line More cows Cows eat more Cows milk for longer

33. Adaptation – Land-based industries • unknown: • weeds, pests, diseases • systems complexity • unintended consequences • community & regulator impacts • Adverse events –high cost to business & community • storms • flooding • fire

34. Adaptation: Land-based industries • adaptation = incremental change = business as usual • enterprise resilience will depend on manager responses • Perceived risk • Tools and strategies to respond • tools, technology and knowledge available in many areas • More tools required • Higher technical skills required for success • adopting these tools within complex farming systems farming within multiple pressures is the real challenge. • unintended consequences • GHG production • Impact of regulation • Community expectations • Current strategies will only in-part meet tomorrows issues

35. Thank you

36. Acknowledgements • Barbara Hock, Lucy Manning – Geospatial analysis • Lindsay Bulman – background information on fungal diseases • FRST for support through the ‘Mitigation of Climate Change and the Role of Forests’ Programme CO4X04706