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This article explores the consequences of Brexit and Trump's election on globalisation, covering topics such as the rise of nationalism, technological trends, and the role of big IT companies. It also discusses automation and the need for governments and suppliers to adapt to the changing landscape.
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Brexit and Trump – globalisation gets a bashing Martin Hingley ITCandor
Agenda • Sizing the global, UK and US ITC markets • Globalisation v Localisation • The consequences
Hardware Other 19% hardware Mobile device 21% 36% Telecom service 37% Enterprise USA hardware 29% 23% Asia Pacific PC 34% 20% IT service 29% Outsourcing/ Implementation Other managed serv. 28% software Software 28% 18% Rest of 15% Americas Infrastructure Rest of EMA Application software 55% 8% 4% 18% Cloud UK Rest of EU 14% SaaS Maintenance 9% 5% 20% 30% The global ITC market – year to the end of June 2017 – total: $6.1T, €5.6T, £4.8T By Country/ Region By Offering
$1,200 $1,000 $800 $0 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% Global ITC sub-market spending ($USb) and growth - <Q217 v <Q216 Wireless Fixed line Implementation Application Software maintenance Hardware maintenance Internet Service Custom SaaS Software IaaS OS Processor Disk drive PaaS Database Analytics
Weak $ Egypt Strong $ 0.0% Turkey UK 0.0% Argentina Malaysia 0.0% Sweden Philippines 104.1% Thailand Costa Rica 23.5% UAE Ukraine China 12.2% Sri Lanka Indonesia Nicaragua 10.4% Canada Romania 8.2% Honduras Saudi Arabia Bangladesh 7.2% Norway Japan 7.1% -0.1% Bulgaria Pakistan Dominican Republic 5.6% European Union -0.1% Denmark 5.2% Mexico El Salvador Singapore 5.0% Colombia -0.7% Croatia 5.0% Hungary Australia Switzerland 4.9% -1.0% Vietnam Czech Republic 4.5% -12.1% Poland Venezuela Hong Kong 4.3% -13.2% -1.5% Jordan 4.0% Chile 3.7% -1.7% 3.6% Peru 3.2% -2.0% 2.9% New Zealand 2.8% -3.0% South Korea 2.8% -3.7% 2.7% India 2.7% -4.6% 2.5% Guatemala 2.5% -5.9% 2.3% Israel 2.0% -6.7% 1.6% Taiwan 1.5% -8.4% 1.4% Brasil 0.9% 0.4% South Africa 0.3% 0.2% Russia 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% Currency fluctuation Q2 2017 – local v $US Strong $ Weak $
10% 5% 0% Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 -5% -10% -15% -20% The growth of ITC spending in the USA ($) and UK (£) – 2015-2017 USA Trump elected UK Brexit vote
ITC – nationalism v globalisation • Globalising trends • IoT, edge computing and machine learning • AI, cognitive computing, blockchain • Amazon, Google, Facebook, Alibaba, Apple, Uber, etc. • Cloud computing and centralisation • Localising trends • Trump’s election to president • UK’s decision to leave the EU • GDPR, data protection and sovereignty legislation
12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 ITC OEM supplier revenues as a proportion of global sales by quarter – 2005-2017
Consequences • The movement towards from global to national interests is cultural and economic – not just political • We should think beyond the boundless possibilities of technology to how it can be best applied to this changing need • Big ITC companies have revenues greater than many countries – governments should stop being influenced by them • Automation will put almost everyone out of work – new luddites and greater nationalisation won’t stop it • Suppliers – please at least modify your ‘big is beautiful’ marketing!
