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Investment Strategy. Bruce O. Kallos Executive Director Federal Investment Seminar September 5, 2002. Arlington Fund. $1 Billion About 125% funded 4600 active employees 3400 retired employees 7 Member Board 5 Equity, 2 Fixed, 1 TAA, 1 GTAA, 1 Cash,
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Investment Strategy Bruce O. Kallos Executive Director Federal Investment Seminar September 5, 2002
Arlington Fund • $1 Billion • About 125% funded • 4600 active employees • 3400 retired employees • 7 Member Board • 5 Equity, 2 Fixed, 1 TAA, 1 GTAA, 1 Cash, 1REIT,1 RE, 1 PE, 1 Hedge managers • Full service consultant
Asset Allocation as of 7/1/02 Domestic Equity 24% International Equity 9 Domestic TAA 18 Global TAA 12 Convertibles 5 Cash and Fixed 24 PE, Hedge 2 (Commitment is 6%) Real Estate, REIT 6 100%
Overall Focus • Reliable Process, Consistently Applied • Manage Risk • Statistically Limit 1 Year Downside • Optimize Return • Expected Return – Each Asset Class • Cash Return – Each Asset Class • Risk – Each Asset Class • Tactically Allocate (Process has worked well for 25 years)
Cash Management • Cash Must Be Available As Needed • Can’t Afford To Sell To Raise Cash • Cash Flow Defined • Maturity Profile Determined • Optimize Return • Meet Cash Needs • Typically Up To 3 Years Maturity • Custodian (BoNY) Manages Account
Fund Management • Understand Liabilities • Maximize Return Within Risk Constraints • Manage Downside Risk Exposure • Monitor Expected Returns (Relative Value) • Requires Broad Diversification • Requires Rebalancing • Requires Active Oversight
How Do We Determine Relative Value ? • Current Price • Long Term (Future) Value Current PriceFuture Value Over Priced Œ Fairly Priced µ Under Priced Ž Current Price Changes Frequently Future Value Changes Very Slowly
Overriding Requirement of Practice • Establish the Process • Understand the Process • Understand How the Process Has Yielded the Results • Have Confidence in the Process • Implement the Process • Stick to the Process • Even When It Hurts • Especially When It Hurts