Search and Rescue Scenario Description: Concept of Operations

1. Wolf-Sim Agent-Based Computer Modelfor Distributed Network Forces (DNF) Preliminary Analysis Briefprepared by:Dr. Richard A. Katz, Stephen D. BasileNaval Undersea Warfare Center Division, Newport RIand Jeffrey Cares, David GarveyAlidade Corporation, Newport, RIDecember 10, 2004

2. Search and Rescue Scenario Description: Concept of Operations • Operation consists of a number of mobile surface crafts comprising “Blue Units” whose collective mission is to search through a number of non-targets (“Green”) and rescue a disabled friendly vessel (”Red”) in a hostile area off shore of a “Third World” country harboring terrorist activities. • Area to be searched spans a square ocean grid of 100 nm X 100 nm. • Mission objectives are to disperse Blue Forces as quickly as possible • and rescue the disabled craft in the shortest possible time.

3. Exploration Rule Sets • Blue Surface Forces begin to randomly disperse into the search area from the upper left quadrant heading toward the lower right quadrant. • RULE SET NO. 1, Single search: Blue searches without a neighbor. • RULE SET NO. 2, Paired Search: Blue picks up a nearest neighbor within its communications range.

4. Exploitation Rule Sets • If a Blue unit sites a potential target (Green or Red), that unit reports the sighting to its nearest neighbor. • The nearest neighbor, if within communications range of the reporting unit, closes to help interrogate the target-of-interest. • When both boats close to within 2.5 nm of the target-of-interest, target is identified and simulation ends.

5. Menu of REPAST Simulation RunIllustrated Input Parameters

6. Illustrated Positions at Start of Run

7. Illustrated Snapshot of PositionsInto Run

8. Illustrated Snapshot of PositionsFurther Into Run

9. Illustrated Snapshot of Positionsat End of Run

10. Illustration of Average DispersionOver a Run

11. Latin-Hypercube Based on Range of Values for Four Input Parameters • Number of non-target interferers (I) minimum value = 10 maximum value = 200 • Searcher-to-searcher (inter-connectivity) communications range (II) minimum value = 5 nm maximum value = 145 nm • Searcher Speed (III) minimum = 5 kts maximum = 60 kts • Searcher contact range to target (IV) minumum = 5 nm maximum = 70 nm

12. Latin-Hypercube Based on Range of Values for Four Input Parameters and 17 Excursions I II III IV 1) 69 145 50 29 2) 22 40 53 42 3) 34 66 8 21 4) 46 93 22 70 5) 153 136 29 13 6) 200 49 26 58 7) 129 31 60 25 8) 117 128 46 66 I II III IV 09) 105 75 33 38 10) 141 5 15 46 11) 188 110 12 33 12) 176 84 57 54 13) 164 58 43 5 14) 58 14 36 62 15) 10 101 39 17 16) 81 119 5 50 17) 93 23 19 9

13. Single Search MTTR DIFF R2 .676 .874 F 6.28 20.82 Paired Search MTTR DIFF .722 .673 7.82 6.17 Latin Hypercube Statistics

14. Single Search 1. 22 Orange Boats Blue Comms Range, 40 nm Blue Speed, 53 kts Blue Det. Rng., 42 nm MMTR: 1.98 hrs Avg. Diff: 24.4 nm 2. 129 Orange Boats Blue Comms range, 31 nm Blue Speed, 60 kts Blue Det. Rng., 25 nm MTTR: 2.4 hrs Avg. Diff: 30.6 nm 3. 69 Orange Boats Blue Comms. Range, 145 nm Blue Speed, 50 kts Blue Det. Rng., 29 nm MTTR: 2.4 hrs Avg. Diff: 28.49 hrs Paired-Search 1. 22 Orange Boats Blue Comms Range, 40 nm Blue Speed, 53 kts Blue Det. Rng., 42 nm MMTR: 2.4 hrs Avg. Diff: 41.8 nm 2. 129 Orange Boats Blue Comms range, 31 nm Blue Speed, 60 kts Blue Det. Rng., 25 nm MTTR: 2.6 hrs Avg. Diff: 40 nm 3. 69 Orange Boats Blue Comms. Range, 145 nm Blue Speed, 50 kts Blue Det. Rng., 29 nm MTTR: 2.8 hrs Avg. Diff: 41.7 hrs Top 3 Performers, Mean Time to Rescue (MTTR) and Mean Dispersion Range