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Resource Efficiency for Green Growth: Is much of the Asia in an advantageous

Resource Efficiency for Green Growth: Is much of the Asia in an advantageous position to Low Carbon World?. International Conference on Green Industry in Asia 10 September 2009, Manila Shuzo Nishioka Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

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Resource Efficiency for Green Growth: Is much of the Asia in an advantageous

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  1. Resource Efficiency for Green Growth: Is much of the Asia in an advantageous position to Low Carbon World? International Conference on Green Industry in Asia 10September 2009, Manila Shuzo Nishioka Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan

  2. To stabilize climate, demand side energy saving, especially in developing countries, plays a big role globally % OECD nOECD Share 35 65 Energy saving -47 -59 Supply side Demand side 2050 2005

  3. Key conclusion: 1.Japan has the technological potential to reduce its CO2 emission by 70% compared to the 1990 level, while satisfying the expected demand for energy services in 2050. 2. Energy saving and LC primary energy contribute almost equally. 3. Innovation necessary not only in technology but in social infrastructure and institutions as well Japan Low Carbon Society 2050 ScenarioAresearch result to endorse Japanese policy of 60-80% reduction in 2050 by NIES, Kyoto Univ., TIT, Tokyo Univ. ＋α(2004-2009) Prime Minister Fukuda in Congress (Jan. 2008)“..maximize Japanese environmental power, lead world transition towards Low Carbon Society…” (May 18) Japanese long-term target 60-80% reduction until 2050,

  4. How to reach Low Carbon Society:Japanese case and Asian opportunity

  5. 0 100 200 300 400 70％ CO2 reduction can be attained by (Mtoe) Passenger transport Freight transport 2000 Industry Household Eco-efficient product and consumers’ smart choices can reduce energy consumption by as much as 40-45% Business 2050 Scenario A Reduced energy demand 2050 40-45％ reduction Scenario B Passenger transport Freight transport Industry Household Business Equal effort by demand & supply side - 100 200 300 400 500 600 (Mtoe) 2000 Coal Oil Gas Low carbon shift in primary energy sources via introduction of renewable energies Hydro 2050 Use of centralized energy Scenario A Nuclear 2050 Use of distributed energy 一次エネルギー供給 Solar/Wind Scenario B Biomass Coal Oil Gas Biomass Hydro Solar/Wind Nuclear

  6. Energy Efficiency is the key, but not enough Step 1 Social change Step 2 Service demand Step 3： Energy demand Step 4： CO2 emission CO2 Emission＝ Energy CO2 Energy GDP Service Demand × Pop × × × Service Demand Pop GDP Energy Popは 0.8 GDP/Cap 2.7 Low Carbonize 0.5 CO2 0.3 Service Industry Shift 0.45 Energy efficiency 0.6 【Demand side】 Saving energy devices, hi-insulated housing, renewable energy, Compact city 70% 40％ reduction Service Demand Same as 2000 【Supply side】 Nuclear, Renewables,CCS with Coal 30％ reduction 2050 Japan LCS Scenario

  7. Significant CO2reduction Potential in demand side Secondary energy demand (million tonC)） 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Passenger Cargo Industry Res. others 2000 Office 2050A 2%/yGrowth 2050B 1%/yGrowth

  8. CO2 : 1/2 Population : X 1.5 GDP/Population : X 3.4 GDP/PopulationX Population X 1/CO2 = 3.4 X 1.5 X 2 EnvironmentalVision 2050 Factor 10 by 2050 Simplified eco-efficiency GDP/CO2 Toshiba aims Factor 10 • The ideal situation in 2050 • People lead rich lifestyles in harmony with the Earth • Common goal to reduce CO2 emissions by half to prevent global warming • Reducing the environmental impact generated by human beings by half • An increasingly growing population • Reducing the environmental impact generated by each person by 1.5 times • Economic development accelerated, especially in developing countries • Creating 3.4 times more value Takeda (Toshiba): 2009

  9. Eco-efficiency and Factor *The higher the value, the greater the eco-efficiency is. Value of a product Eco-efficiency = Environmental Impactof a product *The value of the factor indicates to what extent the eco-efficiency of the product has increased. Factor = Degree of Improvement of Eco-efficiency Toshiba’s Approach: “Factor T” integrating three environmental perspectives - To optimize the trade-off between Environment and Lifestyle - • Integration of environmental impact by the LIME Method • Integration of value of a product with multiple functions by the QFD method • Integration of product and business process eco-efficiency

  10. What is Product Value? QFD matrix • Voice of customer is translated into engineering metrics. • Customers’ evaluation of a product is reflected in an indicator to enhance customer satisfaction. • We adopted QFD* method to reflect customers’ evaluation in determination of product value. *QFD (Quality Function Deployment):A systematic process for integrating product functions based on the degree of importance customers attach to them when selecting a product.

  11. Process of Integrating Environmental Impact Easy-LCA＊ Recycling Procure-ment Distribu-tion Consum-ption Wastetreatment Manufa-cturing * A simplified LCA tool developed by Toshiba, incorporating a database of 30 inventory items based on the input/output table of Japan Environmental Load HFC, SOX, T-N, T-P, CO2, NOX, etc ・・・ Ozone Depletion Acidifi-cation Global Warming Air Polution Eutro-phication ・・・ Plant Production Aquatic Plant Decrease Respiratory Diseases Dengue Fever Cancer Malaria Social Property Biodiversity Primary Production Human Health Integration **Life-cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling : developed by AIST as part of a NEDO project. LIME**

  12. Factor Description and Applications • “Factor T” is already applied to 80% of all Toshiba products. • Factors are calculated on the basis of FY2000 models. • Graph shows factors of products using two axes: • “Value Factor” • “Environmental Impact Reduction Factor” • Lines indicate enhancement of the value or reduction of the environmental impact. Factor Value Factor Environmental Impact Reduction Factor × =

  13. Asian Opportunity 1: Low carbon technologies already availableiｆ technologies commonly shared (2020) GHG Reduction Potential Huge reduction potential when Best Available Technology applied Negative cost！ • China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there are large reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials in the world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.

  14. Infrastructure is importantExample: Passenger transport sector can achieve 80% reduction in energy demand via suitable land use & improved energy efficiency Change in passenger transport volume Decline intransport volume Change in passenger transport methods Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities') Land use・ Reduction intransport volume Improved energy efficiency Grid electricity Energy efficiency improvement Energy Demand (Mtoe) Hydrogen Solar energy generation Biomass Natural gas Petroleum oil 2000(Actual figure) 2050(scenario B) 2050(scenario A) Energy demand in 2000 Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.) Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities'): reduced travel distance due to proximity of destination Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids, lightweight designs etc.)

  15. Beijing 北京1975 北京1997 北京1984 北京1991 深圳1985 深圳1997 深圳2005 Ｔｏｋｙｏ　＆　Ｏｓａｋａ Seoul ソウル2006 ソウル1920 ソウル1960 東京1927 東京1967 東京2001 大阪1927 大阪1967 大阪2001 Ｍａｎｉｌａ マニラ2060 マニラ2000 台北1920 台北2003 Bangkok バンコク2000 バンコク1950 Rapidly Expanding Asian Cities From Kaneko: 2009

  16. 100% Modal share of motorized private mode ＊San Francisco Ｎｏｒｔｈ　Ａｍｅｒｉｃａｎ　Ｐａｔｔｅｒｎ ＊Rome European Pattern ＊Munich ＊Tokyo Most efficient pattern daa ＊Beijing ＊Manila ＊Hong Kong 0% 50,000 GDP/Capita (USD) Asian Opportunity 2: Designing efficient Infrastructure From IEA: 2008

  17. Technology: Projected Car CO2 Emission/km Gasoline Diesel FC EV Hy. Aug

  18. Asian Opportunity 3: Technological leap-fogging starts now Electric Car: Experiences in Mobile Phone (ELIICA) 4 PASSENGER SEDAN370km/h MAX.SPEED Prof. Hiroshi SHIMIZU, Keio Univ.

  19. From Toyota to Pansonic? No engine but only motors in every wheel PLATFORM by SIM-Drive

  20. Let’s design customized Asian Eco-car Body Panels Lighter, wider, and flexible design, when move engine away Body Frame Chassis

  21. NEW SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY “PLATFORM by SIM-Drive” IN WHEEL MOTOR MOTOR DRIVE SYSTEMS ARE INSERTED IN EACH 8 WHEELS ・HIGHER EFFICIENCY ・LIGHTER WEIGHT ・WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN CABIN TANDEM WHEEL SUSPENSION TWO WHEELS ARE CONNECTED BY AN OIL PIPE ・COMFORT ・FASTER CORNERING SPEED ・WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN A CABIN ↑ COMPONENT BUILT IN FRAME MAJOR COMPONENTS ARE IN 16cm HEIGHT FRAME UNDER THE FLOOR ･LIGHTER WEIGHT ･LOWER CENTER OF GRAVITY ･WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN A CABIN ↑

  22. Asian Opportunity 4: Free from past high-energy-depending technology track Long-term Trends in Energy Intensity (energy/GDP) ＊ Japan’s leap-frog China？ India？ Possibility of Asian countries’ catch-up • How can wefacilitate technology leap flogging to promote low carbon development? • What would be mechanisms (international and national, market and non market) that could facilitate those leap-floggingsto low carbon technologies? 22

  23. Considerations (1) Acceleration of Technology Essential to Realize a Low Carbon Society Carbon intensity（excluding CCS） Energy intensity Carbon intensity （CCS equivalent） 1.25 Past 0.65 2.36 0.78 0.53 Scenario A Scenario B 1.70 1.41 2.79 0.85 0.61 UK 1.72 1.62 0.68 France 2.38 0.45 1.26 Germany 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Rate of improvement in carbon & energy intensity (%/year)

  24. International decoupling competitionstarted Energy Intensity Japan almost caught up by European countries IEA Energy statistics

  25. New Energy competition : distributed energy Germany Spain Japan USA Solar Panel Capacity Growth 米国

  26. Asia: Tightening material linkage: cooperation From NIES

  27. Embedded Water to Japan (Virtual water)accompanied with food, meat, industrial product,,tightening of mutual dependency in natural resource usage 27 出典：T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003. 2002年に穀物、肉、工業製品として日本に輸入されたバーチャルウォーター 世界の水資源への影響が、日本にも及ぶかもしれない。 出典：T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003.

  28. ADB-IGES Joint Publication in 2008 Toward Resource Efficient-Economies in Asia and the Pacific Results From “Toward Resource Efficient Economies in Asia and the Pacific” March 2009 Taku OHMURA 3R Project Team Leader Asian Development Bank

  29. The Report: • Propositions: • Current inefficient development patterns do not allow the region to continue support high demand resource without negative impacts: • higher price, severe degradation, growing internal competition • Government around the region have the ability to follow an alternative path not only to avoid such impacts but also to take advantage of opportunities to invest in infrastructure and institutes wisely: • Strengthen competitiveness, generate jobs, provide clean and productive environment

  30. Resource Inefficiency in Asia • Resource efficiency has huge room to improve in developing countries • Energy consumption per GDP of PRC is 3 times higher than US, 10 times than Japan) • In many mega-cities, non-revenue water of water supply is around 40% • In developing countries, 75% of water intended to for irrigation is lost to evaporation, leakage, seepage of bad management • Fresh water is a renewable resources, but world demand for water has tripled over last half century, it increasingly emerging scares commodity due to population pressure, intensive irrigation, erratic weather pattern, and pollution caused by human activities.

  31. Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (1) • Asian economies is continuing its growth, even its growth rate is slowing down. Economic expansion is associated with rapid urbanization (2.21 Billon in 2040  1.56 Billion current) • Necessary to improve services to the people, to reduce poverty (54% of population living less than $2/day poverty line or 27% for <$1.25/day) • more than 600 million people lack access to safe drinking water and nearly 2 billion people have inadequate, or no, sanitation facilities. • Resulting in rapidly increasing demand of resources (material, energy and water), and waste generation (solid waste, pollutants, GHG) • Asian energy consumption will grow by 112% from 2005 to 2030 • GO2 emission from Asia will be doubled and represent 36% of world emission in 42% in 2030 in comparison to 29% in 2005 • Solid waste generation will be doubled in 2050

  32. Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (2) -- Not only for environmental objectives, but also economic competitiveness and sustainable economic growth -- • Tackling Local Environmental Problems • Mitigating Climate Change • Ensuring Energy Security (+water/food security) • Preserving Natural Capital • Improving Economic Competitiveness • Minimizing Disposal Costs • Developing New Business Opportunities • Pursuing Social Benefits • Avoiding Resource Conflicts

  33. Government role: Develop National Policy Framework • Overarching Policies, such as “Circular Economy” • National Policies to Support Material, Energy and Water Efficiency • Targets, Monitoring, and Benchmarking Report examines wide range of policy instruments: Regulatory, Economic and Financial, Information-based, Voluntary Initiatives, Substance, product or technology bans, Extended producer Responsibility and take-back, Green purchasing, Biomass policies and programs, Construction and demolition debris, Energy Audit, Energy Efficiency and Emission Standards, Energy pricing and taxation, Favorable subsidies (tax credit & favorable loan), Energy service company, Demand side management, GHG reduction project, Improving allocative efficiency, River basin planning, Water Pricing, Water market

  34. Government Role : Investing in Resource-Efficient Infrastructure • Infrastructure investments often establish a country’s pattern of resource use for subsequent decades. If traditional low efficiency infrastructure is introduced, the economies and the sustainability of resource use will suffer in the long term. • ADB estimates: US$60 Billion/yr is needed to expand urban services – water, sanitation, SWM, road, and mass transit. • US$8 Billion/yr over the next decade to meet MDG targets for sanitation and safe drinking water • Investment in industry and energy sectors is continuing to meet the increasing demands • US$6 trillion needed for energy investments by 2030

  35. Conclusion • Resource efficiency for reducing energy demand is the key to shift to Low Carbon Society, front- runner to the stationary world • Embedding resource efficiency concept into management is indispensable to win international competition among countries and business as well • Fully integrated application of resource efficiency concept required: innovations in products as well as in infrastructure and institutions to activate them. Immediate action of Governments based on firm future oriented plan is indispensable • Much of the Asia now situates in an advantageous position to leapfrog to resource efficient society, avoiding locked–in with past inefficient developing pattern, if their current rapid and massive investment aims properly to our common future • Collaboration first, competition second: collaborative improvement of resource efficiency benefits widely over the countries in Asia, under tightening regional flow of materials and energy, within stationary world

  36. Can we live with such a catastrophe? Projection of surface temperature from 1900 地球シミュレータによる２１００年までの気候変化予測ー地上温度 CCSR/NIES/FRSGC＋Earth Simulator 東大気候システム研究センター・国立環境研究所・地球環境フロンティア研究センター

  37. Earth System Integrated Mod Kakushin = Innovation Program (2007-12)気候が変化すれば生態系も変化し、炭素循環が変化する。気候と生態系の相互作用も考慮して将来の地球環境変化を予測できるのが地球システム統合モデル（ESM)であり、これの高度化をはかる。 Stratosphere process Chemical process Aerozol Ice sheet 力学的植生モデル Marine bio-chemical process Land area C cycle Land energy water cycle Ocean circulation

  38. [PgC/yr] 4 No FB With FB Estimate No FB *present With Feed Back 0 1850 2000 2100 2250 To stabilize climate, emission = absorption, but absorption capacity decreases while temperature rises. Almost Zero emission ultimately needed 1000ppm stabilize More than 6 degrees PgC/y 550ppm stabilize 3.2-4 degrees Estimate Slow absorption to deep see Interim research findings of "Innovative" Earth System Model JAMSTEC(2007)

  39. Products: Energy Infrastructure Wastes: CO2 Resources: Fossil F Nowwe are stepping into stationary society Solar Energy as source of resources as sink of residuals The earth is finite Moriguchi ＋SN

  40. Thank you for your attention! Can you see and feel the blessings of the mother nature?

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