Sanju Koirala PhD Candidate Department of Geography University of Otago, New Zealand

1. Anticipating Displacement: Impacts of Involuntary Displacement on Locals Likely to be Displaced from Large-Scale Hydropower Project Sanju Koirala PhD Candidate Department of Geography University of Otago, New Zealand

2. Background • Dam projects including large scale hydropower project have contributed in meeting the necessities of many people and increasing the economic growth of several countries. Nevertheless, it has also worsened the living standard of many people living in the dam area and its vicinity. • World Commission on Dam has estimated that the construction of large dams alone has displaced 40 to 80 million people worldwide in last few decades. • It also estimates that yearly 160 to 320 dams are being built. • This indicates that yearly millions of people are affected, uprooted, and impoverished by dam projects.

3. Gaps in the Literature Ample literature on involuntary displacement and resettlement explains the impacts that might occur to local people during displacement, after displacement or post resettlement phase. • Very limited research examines the impacts that local communities experience during the pre-implementation phase. • Negligible research conducted on communities that are affected by the longer gestation period of project.

4. Focus of the Study Considering the research gaps, taking the case study of proposed West Seti Hydropower Project (WSHP) located in Nepal, this study attempts to: • Explore the experiences of potential displaceesduring the pre-implementation phase of WSHP • Highlights the impacts caused by long gestation period of the project and explains the factors that have further intensified these impacts

5. Arguments • Since most of the problems of involuntary displacement begin during the pre-implementation phase, if the problems occurring during this period are not properly understood and addressed, it will create long-term impact on people, community, and overall development processes in the country. • Hence, an adequate understanding of the pre-implementation dynamics of large-scale development projects is crucial to address various problems related to displacement and resettlement of people likely to be affected by these projects.

6. Case selected and Methodology • WSHP is Located in far western region of Nepal, the most underdeveloped region of Nepal. • In 1994 , the project was handed by GON to Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation (SMEC). However, it did not manage to begin the project work hence, its license was cancelled in June 2011. • In July 2011, GON handed the project to China Three Georges Corporation. It was supposed to start its construction work in 2014. However the work has not started yet. • The project is going to affect 18, 269 people of four districts (Doti, Baitadi, Dadeldhura, Bajang) of Nepal and displace 1,579 households. Methods-Household survey :Potential displacees of the project area In-depth interviews : Local leaders, government officers, teachers, local political leaders, women groups, and potential host communities members

7. Pictures of study area

8. Major Findings

9. Factors that has Heightened Impacts 1. Limited Information : Government, project investors, political leaders are not giving enough information to locals on project happenings. Due to which, feeling of fear, uncertainty, and suspicion has heightened on locals. 2.Lack of Meaningful Participation: The locals of the WSHP area expressed that they were not well consulted during the EIA surveys . They stated that few times project staff, government employees, and political leaders came to their area and gave speeches and left. Such tendency has made locals feel that their fate is in other’s decisions and acts. 3. Uncertainty of Project Construction: Locals are not confident that the project will be construction soon. They are eagerly waiting for the answers to questions such as: Will the project be built? When will it be built? Where will we be resettled? What will be our future like?

10. Factors that has Heightened Impacts cont… 4. Absence of concerned government authority in the project sites: According to the locals, during the last 17 years, the employees of Department of Electricity and Ministry of Electricity were present in the area only twice or thrice. Hence, the locals have an impression that they have been overlooked by the government. 5. Political condition of country: During the Maoist armed conflict (1996-2005) as well as at present stage, political instability has affected the progress of the project and lengthened the gestation period. This has ultimately lengthened the period of uncertainty and has further intensified the dilemma among the locals .

11. Conclusion and Policy Implications • The assessment of the WSHP demonstrates that the project has worsened the life of people even prior to its implementation. • This research indicated that the government and project developers should give attention to the likely impact that arise after the project is announced and be prepared with the plans to minimize the impacts that may occur at this stage. • Government as a responsible body should come up with interim development plans for areas affected by long gestation period of the project. • Measures to minimize the impact that may occur during pre-implementation phase should be incorporated in involuntary displacement policy.