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Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels. Tyler Svitak Clean Cities Manager. PRESENTATION OVERVIEW. Clean Cities, Refuel Colorado Fleets Alternative Fuel Benefits Lifecycle Cost Factors Electric CNG/LPG Fleet Analysis Example Variable Fleet Homogenous Fleet.
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Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels Tyler Svitak Clean Cities Manager
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW • Clean Cities, Refuel Colorado Fleets • Alternative Fuel Benefits • Lifecycle Cost Factors • Electric • CNG/LPG • Fleet Analysis Example • Variable Fleet • Homogenous Fleet
2. ALTERNATIVE FUEL INFLUENCES Lower lifecycle cost Energy independence, stability Cleaner burning
Alternative Fuel Benefits Lower Lifecycle Cost ROI Opportunities
LIFECYCLE COSTS Price tag is just 1 factor • Life cycle cost comparison factors: • Unit price • Delivery, shipping, transportation • Fuel (increasing over time) • Routine maintenance • Cost of money over time (net present value) • Resale value
Lifecycle Costs • Higher incremental price tag • Gain ROI through fuel cost reduction • CNG $2.12/gge, LPG $2.56/gge, Electricity $1.14/eGallon • Fast ROI: • High VMT • High fuel consumption • Home base fueling
NO SILVER BULLETAlt Fuels most likely to succeed in each vehicle class: f
FUEL PRICE VOLATILITY COST PER GAL $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Diesel Retail price $4.43/GGE (early 2008) Gasoline Retail price $3.77/GGE (early 2008) 10% Taxes Distribution and Marketing 5% CNG Retail price $2.10/GGE (early 2008) 10% Taxes 21% Refining Distribution and Marketing 5% 10% Refining 64% 75% Electricity Retail price $1.14/eGallon 18% Taxes 6% Electricity Pipeline 9% Operations Maintenance Amortization 42% Crude OIl Crude OIl Taxes 15% 30% Transmission and Delivery Natural Gas Capital Costs 30% 26% Fuel Costs 25% Source: US DoE EERE, EIA, and NGVA
Analysis • OK, Alt fuels MAY be cheaper… • How much cheaper? • When will I see an ROI? • What is my initial capital cost?
Lifecycle Cost Factors • Comparing Conventional Replacement with Alternative • Operating Costs Only • Lifecycle Analysis isn’t Exact
Analysis Detail • Simple analysis • Groups of similar vehicles • Consistent duty cycles, operations • Trucking operations, HVAC, aggregate, refuse • 2 EXAMPLE • Comprehensive fleet analysis • Variable fleets with multiple duty-cycles • Long term planning • Large government, corporate fleets • EXAMPLE
Simple Analysis - AFDC • http://www.afdc.energy.gov/tools/ • http://www.afdc.energy.gov/calc/
Limiting Factors • Vehicle Availability • OEM vs. Conversion • Daily Range vs. Vehicle Range • Infrastructure Location vs. Vehicle Location • Space/tank limitations • Performance is NOT an issue
Considerations • Analysis doesn’t cover: • Infrastructure Cost • Vehicle Service • Maintenance Bay Upgrades • Operating savings will determine justification
Conclusion • Products are proven • ROI opportunities can be found within most fleets • The problem is only going to get worse • Rising fuel prices • Volatile fuel budgets • It’s a process – but a process worth making… so, PLAN NOW!!
Mike OgburnCleanEnergyEconomy.net • Maria EisemannNorthernColoradoCleanCities.org • Tyler SvitakDenverCleanCities.org