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Salem Harbor Reliability Impact Assessment

Salem Harbor Reliability Impact Assessment. Purpose. ISO-NE, NGRID and NSTAR conducted an Transmission Adequacy Assessment of bulk electric system reliability in the North Shore and the Boston Import Area* for 2003 through 2012 to assess the dependence on Salem Harbor Generation

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Salem Harbor Reliability Impact Assessment

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  1. Salem Harbor ReliabilityImpact Assessment

  2. Purpose • ISO-NE, NGRID and NSTAR conducted an Transmission Adequacy Assessment of bulk electric system reliability in the North Shore and the Boston Import Area* for 2003 through 2012 to assess the dependence on Salem Harbor Generation • Identified resulting deficiencies if Salem Harbor units were unavailable. * Boston Import Area includes North Shore (NGRID) and most of Boston Edison and Cambridge Electric

  3. Transmission Adequacy Assessment • The Transmission Adequacy Assessment found two facets of dependence: • “Operating Capacity” - reserves needed to cover the loss of the largest unit or worst transmission contingency • “Un-served Energy” – Amount of load deficiency calculated using existing generation resources and transmission imports

  4. Methodology • Operating Capacity calculated per NEPOOL PP3, OP19 & NPCC A2 criteria, considered most severe of largest generator or transmission facility (extended outage), in addition to an average amount of capacity (sudden forced outage) • Un-served Energy calculated as the area load minus generations resources minus transmission imports • Reference and High Demand respectively bracket the minimum and maximum capacity deficiencies • Summer peak loads forecast for 2003 through 2012 • These assessments also considered: • The existing system • The retirement of New Boston 1 when Mystic 9 becomes available (2004) • Proposed NGRID North Shore upgrades (Package 2) in service by Summer 2006

  5. Summary of Results Boston Import Area & North Shore resources are needed 2003-2012 to: • Provide capacity to satisfy Operating Reserve requirements for both: • North Shore • Boston Import Area • Provide Must Run generation to reliability serve load to: • North Shore

  6. Analysis Results: Salem Harbor 1-4 Removed From Service 2003-2012

  7. Boston Import Area Operating Capacity Deficiency for Peak Hour

  8. North Shore Operating Capacity Deficiency for Peak Hour

  9. Analysis Results: Salem Harbor 1-3 (Coal Units) Removed From Service 2003-2012

  10. Analysis Results: Salem Harbor 4 (Oil Unit) Removed From Service 2003-2012

  11. Conclusions • All of the Salem Harbor generation is needed to ensure both North Shore and Boston Import Area reliability, unless new resources are added or transmission improvements are made. • Area of greatest requirement/deficiency if Salem Harbor unavailable: • 2003-2005 – North Shore • 2006-2012 – both North Shore and Boston Import Area

  12. Mitigating Measures • Long-term – North Shore and Boston Import Area transmission enhancement • New 345 kV transmission across NEMA-Boston & Boston Import interfaces • New transmission within Boston Import Area, including North Shore • Integrated solution to address regional needs • Interim Alternatives for Consideration • Boston Import Area and/or North Shore measures • Retain some/all Salem Harbor generation • Replacement generation (“base-load” and reserves) • Pre & Post contingency Load Shedding • Boston Import Area measures • Connect Mystic 4-6 to Mystic 345 kV (relieve short circuit concerns) • Retain New Boston 1 • System modifications to allow temporary Dewar St. load shift to SEMA • Add Phase Angle Regulator and close Dewar St. to N. Quincy 115 kV • Additional short term North Shore transmission modifications?

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