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Program B: Water Sensitive Urbanism Nigel TAPPER ( Monash University) Darryl LOW CHOY (Griffith University)

Program B: Water Sensitive Urbanism Nigel TAPPER ( Monash University) Darryl LOW CHOY (Griffith University). Program B: Water Sensitive Urbanism.

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Program B: Water Sensitive Urbanism Nigel TAPPER ( Monash University) Darryl LOW CHOY (Griffith University)

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  1. Program B: Water Sensitive Urbanism Nigel TAPPER (Monash University) Darryl LOW CHOY (Griffith University)

  2. Program B: Water Sensitive Urbanism • “This program focuses on the influence of urban and peri-urban configurations on resource flows across a range of landscape scales. It is applying green infrastructure and climate responsive design principles to water security, flood protection and the ecological health of terrestrial and aquatic landscapes from neighbourhood to whole-of-catchment level. The program aims to establish integrative socio-technical urban and regional planning and design processes that will deliver practical tools to improve resilience of Australian urban environments and their regional settings”. • Key issues: • Ecological values/Ecosystem services • Planning /Design • Socio-ecological landscapes Combining state-of-the-art science of climate change modeling, surface and sub-surface hydrology, streamwaterecology and chemistry, and urban climatology with the best new thinking on urban and regional planning, design and practice

  3. B1 Catchment-scale Landscape Planning for Water Sensitive Cities in an age of Climate Change • B2 Planning, Design and Management to Protect and Restore Receiving Waters • B3 Water Sensitive Urban Design and Urban Micro-climate Water Sensitive Urbanism Society Adoption Pathways Future Technologies B4 Building Socio-technical Flood Resilience in Cities and Towns B5 Statutory Planning for Water Sensitive Urban Design

  4. B1 – Catchment-scale Landscape Planning for Water Sensitive Cities with Climate Change

  5. B1.1 Urban Rainfall in a Changing Climate (Cities as Water Supply Catchments) Bhupendra Raut1, Lorenzo de la Fuente1, Michael Reeder1, Christian Jakob1 and Alan Seed2 1School of Mathematical Sciences, MonashUniversity 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, BOM

  6. Project B1.1: Urban rainfall in a changing climate Climate scenario uncertainty • This project is: • Providing rainfall projections at appropriate space/time scales to support planning and design decisions • Providing quantitative estimates of the uncertainties in rainfall projections. • Key outputs: • Rainfall regimes determined for cities at 5km2scales for use by other Programs/projects. Global model uncertainty Regional model uncertainty Unpredictable scales

  7. Immediate Plans • Refine and complete regime analysis for the dynamical model simulations • Refine the statistical model • Test the entire downscaling chain (GCM, Dynamical Model, Statistical Model) for current climate • Test leaving the regional model out of the chain • Extend the model to future climates and CMIP5

  8. Summary • The project is developing urban-scale projections of the future rainfall over the selected Australian cities with estimates of the uncertainty in these projections using a combination of dynamical downscaling and regime-dependent stochastic downscaling • The approach quantifies how well the different observed synoptic patterns are simulated in the regional climate model, and whether the model correctly predicts the fraction of rainfall attributable to each class of weather pattern • The statistical properties of each of the rainfall regimes can be determined from radar and rain gauges, and used to construct a multifractal cascade model of the rainfall distribution and its evolution

  9. B1.2 Catchment-scale landscape planning for water sensitive city-regions in an age of climate change Silvia Serrao-Neumann1, Darryl Low Choy1 and Steve Kenway2 (still recruiting) 1Urban Research Program, School of Environment, GriffithUniversity 2Advanced Water Management Centre, School of Chemical Engineering,University of Queensland

  10. Project B1.2: Catchment-scale Landscape Planning for Water Sensitive City-regions in an age of Climate Change • This project will: • Derive a first order urban metabolism evaluation framework for the city region across urban, peri-urban and rural landscapes. • Encapsulate this framework within a whole-of-landscape planning and management city-region model that links cities ecologically and hydrologically to their region whilst accommodating the assessment of urban growth adapted to climate change. • Ground this inquiry in statutory and non-statutory regional (catchment) scale planning processes. • Key outputs: • Scenarios of plausible futures for rapidly growing metropolitan regions that adopt a whole of landscape regional scale outlook that links cities ecologically and hydrologically to their regions.

  11. The Metropolitan Region Biophysical environment Socio-ecological systems Socio-economic environment (Human use and occupation) Landscape Scale “…an area, as perceived by people, whose character is the result of the actions and interactions of natural and/or human factors” (Selman, 2006: 6) Urban Centre The Peri-urban Landscapes Zone of Resilience Interests Rural Landscapes Rural Landscapes Dominant Urban Forces Strong Non-Urban Sector

  12. ?

  13. (Kenway, 2012)

  14. Demands on the Regional Landscape Regional LandscapeValues Habitation Values Biodiversity Values Scenic Amenity Values Indigenous Values Cultural Demands Urban Demands Rural Demands Rural Production Values Water: a linking element in the Landscape for “joined-up” planning Cultural Heritage Values Peri-urban Demands Outdoor Recreation Values Ecosystem Services Environmental Demands

  15. Towards a Conceptual Model for a Resilient “Water Sensitive” Metropolitan Region Adapted Mass Balance & Urban Region Metabolism Model Future Population in a changing Climate “n” yrs Present Population evapotranspiration Open Space system Ecosystem Services Flooding Total Water in the metropolitan regional system Quantity ? Modified Mass Balance & Urban Metabolism Model Precipitation Carbon Energy Water Recycled water Groundwater Stored water Quality Surface water

  16. Roles of Water in the Metropolitan Region • Water functions as a: • Element in the landscape contributing to landcsape values (aesthetical, recreational, tourism, cultural, ecological, hydrological and natural resources) • Process and agent of change • Commodity and product • Conductor and transporter of goods, materials and energy (and other flows) What is the managerial connection between these roles?

  17. Statutory Vs Non Statutory Regional & Local Planning Mandates Statutory Requirements (GI) Voluntary Requirements (GI) Avenues to Incorporate Science into Planning Mandatory Optional Statutory Planning Regime Non Statutory Planning Regime) Alternative Metabolic Futures (urban form, density, GI investment, climate)

  18. Thank You

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