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Science, Technology & Public Policy

Science, Technology & Public Policy. The CTBT. RPDS. Prologue. Wave Functions. U. c 0  0 + c 1  1 + c 2  2 + . . . . + c n  n. Schrödinger, Annalen der Physik, 1926. Science, Technology & National Security Policy. An Exploding Wire Studying the obscure;

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Science, Technology & Public Policy

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  1. Science, Technology & Public Policy The CTBT RPDS

  2. Prologue Wave Functions U c00 +c11 + c22 + . . . . + cnn Schrödinger, Annalen der Physik, 1926

  3. Science, Technology & National Security Policy An Exploding Wire Studying the obscure; Exploiting the power of knowledge

  4. Exploding Wires: Triggers of Power Nagasaki, August 9, 1945 Robert Oppenheimer Enrico Fermi

  5. Scientific Understanding: Knowledge and the Root of Power Fission & Fusion Lise Meitner Otto Hahn Leo Szilard Edward Teller Stan Ulam Andrei Sakharov

  6. Testing the Theory; Building the Arsenal Science in pursuit of knowledge and influence upon policy

  7. Other Nations, Other Testing NationFirst Nuclear Detonation USA 1945 USSR 1949 England 1952 France 1959 China 1964 India 1974 Pakistan 1998 South Africa ? Israel - Craig, Jungerman, Nuclear Arms Race, 1990.

  8. Fallout & Detection of Nuclear ExplosionsThe Collision of Politics and Technology From 1945-1963, there are 650 test detonations of nuclear devices --most exploded in the atmosphere. In 1963, international fear of radio-active fallout prompts the LTBT. From 1963 to the present, a twilight struggle to ratify a CTBT ensues --and another 1100 nuclear detonations occur.

  9. The Motivations for Testing Nuclear Weapons • Stockpile stewardship • Innovation • Sustaining technical expertise • Modernizing nuclear explosion detection systems • Weapons effects • Political

  10. CTBTThe Science & Technology of Stockpile Stewardship • The explosive core in the primary of a nuclear weapon is plutonium. • Plutonium decays (half-life = 24,100 years) 239Pu 235U + 4He • Alpha particles induce crystal modifications within the core that reduce its explosive yield and the reliability of the weapon. Sidney Drell, et al, Science, 2/19/99.

  11. Nuclear Weapons Testing: New Realities • High-speed computing and microscopic ignition of fusion • Growing global supplies of fissile fuel • Underemployed weapons scientists • Escalating regional conflict • Global commerce • Ease of information flow

  12. The Comprehensive Test Ban TreatyCTBT The purpose of CTBT is to discontinue experiments like this one C&E News, October 19, 1998

  13. The History of CTBT:The Collision of Political and Technological Thought • 1956 - 1958 --Failed American Soviet negotiations • 1958 - 1961 --Testing moratorium • 1963 --The LTBT • 1976 --The TTBT • 1996 --CTBT (Yet to be ratified)

  14. CTBTTechnology and Detection:The Hinge of the Dilemma CTBT is a ninety-nine page document, largely concerned with establishing and operating the International Monitoring System (IMS) IMS is a collection of 321 seismic, infrasound, hyroacoustic, and radio-nuclide sensors distributed among 89 nations and Antarctica Each nation will establish National Data Centers (NDC) and links to an International Data Centre (IDC), for purposes of sharing data

  15. Big Government and Big Science The Science & Technology of CTBT

  16. CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions 50 Stations http://www.ctbt.rnd.doe.gov/ctbt/introduction/infrasound_mon.html

  17. CTBTSeismology and Detection of Nuclear Explosions Developing the algorithms and databases required for reliable detection at 167 stations Los Alamos and Livermore National Labs

  18. CTBTSampling the Atmosphere for Radionuclides 80 Stations The Automated RadioXenon Sampler/Analyzer

  19. CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions Under Water 11 Stations The work of LLNL , The Naval Research Labs, and Scripps School of Oceanography

  20. CTBTSatellites and Detecting Nuclear Explosions from Space Forte´: Fast on-Orbit Recording of Transient Events Fast http://nis-www.lanl.gov/nis-projects/forte/

  21. CTBTAssembling the Data International Monitoring System

  22. CTBTThe Challenges of Verification and Reliability

  23. CTBTThe Architecture of an Agreement C&E News, 10/19/98

  24. CTBTListening for Explosions, Interpreting the DataWhat Does it All Mean? • 1949 -USAF aircraft capture radionuclides that announce the first Soviet A-bomb • 1979 -Satellite optical sensors detect the signature of nuclear explosions • 1985 -Seismic measurements suggest illegal testing by the Soviets, disputed by independent seismologists • 1998 -IMS monitoring of Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests C&E News, 10/19/98

  25. Epilog A Tale of Parallel Universes Hanford Nevada test site Sarov Livermore Oak Ridge Los Alamos Lesnoy Savannah River Snezhinsk Zelenogorsk Seversk Aleutians Ulam, Teller, Oppenheimer, Lawrence, Szilard, Pauling, . . . Kurchatov, Sakharov, Smirnov, Khariton, Fuchs, . . . And Global Anxiety

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