300 likes | 377 Views
Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument. Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich. Why are we here?. Understand your needs. DSS for Ironwood Applicable Elsewhere. Create a useful product. Agenda – Day One. Present prototype models for Ironwood
E N D
Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich
Why are we here? Understand your needs DSS for Ironwood Applicable Elsewhere Create a useful product
Agenda – Day One • Present prototype models for Ironwood • How the model works • Inputs • Scenario Outputs • Breakout Groups • Needs and requirements for a DSS • Developing scenarios (Decisions and Uncertainties) • Discussion • Presentation on Helicopter Study
Agenda – Day Two • Presentation of additional scenario outputs • Presentation on treatment effectiveness at Saguaro National Park • Presentation to decision makers • Discussion Product • Factsheet – Workshop outcomes and scenario Results
How can a DSS help? • Resources are limited • Alternative actions are expensive • Lag time between actions and results • How to get the highest return on investment? $
Alternative decisions Inventory - $$$$$ Treatment - $$$$$$$$$ Maintenance - $$$ OR? Where? Inventory - $$$$$$$$$$$ Treatment - $$ Maintenance - $$$$
Multiple objectives • Public safety • Biodiversity • Tourism • Cost effective
Questions? • What if control could happen in neighboring areas? • What if intensive surveys could be conducted more frequently? • What if budget could be increased? • What if treatment effectiveness could be increased? What would the cost be?
Questions? • How much buffelgrass is invading from neighboring lands? • What if volunteers were not available? • What if budgets were interrupted so treatment would only happen every two years? • Where is the biggest fire risk? • Where would the most effective treatment to reduce fire risk?
Model development process • Biology of species • Growth, Spread and Mortality • Management activities • Effectiveness • Amount • Cost • Scenarios • Change management actives • Change management amounts • Change uncertainties
Current Buffelgrass Invasion • Based on survey data • Classified into categories listed
Ironwood Land Ownership • Remote = 1 mile from roads • Units here define management actions
Habitat suitability • Classifies landscape into three categories • Used to change max density, probability of establishment and spread
Scenarios run • No Management • Current Management • Double Budget • Manager allocated • Manage everywhere – reduced inventory • Mortality • Based on precipitation
No Management • No management • No mortality
Management Input Effectiveness by percent cover *Have updated values not yet incorporated
Double Budget • Intensive inventory frequency – 7 to 3 years • Backpack spraying – 200 to 300 acres • Added more costly contract hand pulling • Accessible – 30 acres • Remote – 10 Acres • Follow-up maintenance – 80 to 160 acres
Management Everywhere • Same ratio of mgmt as current scenario • Lower probability of inventory
Mortality and Growth • Index used to spatially alter probability of mortality and growth
Mortality • Same as current mgmnt + mortality
Updates to be incorporated • Inventory needs to be updated. • Affects the amount acres that are detected. When it is updated there will be more inventory occurring, and potentially more buffelgrass found. • Update the effectiveness of spraying • Explore inventory vs. control • Calibrate with Tucson Mountain data • Explore more scenarios