Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument

1. Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich

2. Why are we here? Understand your needs DSS for Ironwood Applicable Elsewhere Create a useful product

3. Agenda – Day One • Present prototype models for Ironwood • How the model works • Inputs • Scenario Outputs • Breakout Groups • Needs and requirements for a DSS • Developing scenarios (Decisions and Uncertainties) • Discussion • Presentation on Helicopter Study

4. Agenda – Day Two • Presentation of additional scenario outputs • Presentation on treatment effectiveness at Saguaro National Park • Presentation to decision makers • Discussion Product • Factsheet – Workshop outcomes and scenario Results

5. How can a DSS help? • Resources are limited • Alternative actions are expensive • Lag time between actions and results • How to get the highest return on investment? $

6. Alternative decisions Inventory - $$$$$ Treatment - $$$$$$$$$ Maintenance - $$$ OR? Where? Inventory - $$$$$$$$$$$ Treatment - $$ Maintenance - $$$$

7. Multiple objectives • Public safety • Biodiversity • Tourism • Cost effective

8. Catalina Study Area

9. Calibrating Spread

10. Questions? • What if control could happen in neighboring areas? • What if intensive surveys could be conducted more frequently? • What if budget could be increased? • What if treatment effectiveness could be increased? What would the cost be?

11. Questions? • How much buffelgrass is invading from neighboring lands? • What if volunteers were not available? • What if budgets were interrupted so treatment would only happen every two years? • Where is the biggest fire risk? • Where would the most effective treatment to reduce fire risk?

12. Model development process • Biology of species • Growth, Spread and Mortality • Management activities • Effectiveness • Amount • Cost • Scenarios • Change management actives • Change management amounts • Change uncertainties

13. State and Transition Model

14. Current Buffelgrass Invasion • Based on survey data • Classified into categories listed

15. Ironwood Land Ownership • Remote = 1 mile from roads • Units here define management actions

16. Habitat suitability • Classifies landscape into three categories • Used to change max density, probability of establishment and spread

17. Scenarios run • No Management • Current Management • Double Budget • Manager allocated • Manage everywhere – reduced inventory • Mortality • Based on precipitation

18. No Management • No management • No mortality

19. Management Input Effectiveness by percent cover *Have updated values not yet incorporated

20. Current Management

21. Double Budget • Intensive inventory frequency – 7 to 3 years • Backpack spraying – 200 to 300 acres • Added more costly contract hand pulling • Accessible – 30 acres • Remote – 10 Acres • Follow-up maintenance – 80 to 160 acres

22. Double Budget

23. Management Everywhere • Same ratio of mgmt as current scenario • Lower probability of inventory

24. Mortality and Growth • Index used to spatially alter probability of mortality and growth

25. Mortality • Same as current mgmnt + mortality

26. Detected vs. Undetected

27. Inventory and Control Costs

28. Management Costs

29. Management Efficiency

30. Updates to be incorporated • Inventory needs to be updated. • Affects the amount acres that are detected. When it is updated there will be more inventory occurring, and potentially more buffelgrass found. • Update the effectiveness of spraying • Explore inventory vs. control • Calibrate with Tucson Mountain data • Explore more scenarios