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Trends in Global Markets for North American Hardwoods. Dan Meyer Northern Editor September 6, 2006. Overview. Macro Trends Europe Sleep-Inducing Graphs Key Opportunities Market Summary Asia Canada/Mexico Others to Watch?. $1,180. $1,160. $1,137. $1,108. $1,059/MBF.
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Trends in Global Markets for North American Hardwoods Dan Meyer Northern Editor September 6, 2006
Overview • Macro Trends • Europe • Sleep-Inducing Graphs • Key Opportunities • Market Summary • Asia • Canada/Mexico • Others to Watch?
$1,180 $1,160 $1,137 $1,108 $1,059/MBF U.S. Lumber Exports
Key European Opportunities: Poland • Rapid growth since joining EU • Tariff reductions, free trade stance, investment in mfg. sectors, wage rates among lowest on continent—make it a low-cost mfg.centerfor Europe.
Key European Opportunities: Poland • Increased lumber shipments to Germany ending up in Poland. • Sizeable furniture industry and rapidly growing flooring industry—both heavily export oriented. • Polish wood furniture exports up 24% in 2005 to U.S.$1.44 billion.
Key European Opportunities: Poland • Poland’s mfg. competitiveness similar to Spain and Portugal’s positions at initial EU formation. • Poland’s industrial production growing at 10% annually. • N.A. lumber exports will increase significantly.
Key European Opportunities: Turkey • EU membership discussions opened in Oct 2005
Key European Opportunities: Turkey • Market potential similar to Poland’s; but won’t be realized as quickly. • Wood household furniture exports surged 54% in 2004 to $136 mil. • EU admission likely; maybe as soon as 2007.
Key European Opportunities: Turkey • Turkey’s geographic location at the crossroads of European, Asian and African trade routes. • Attractive location from which to source lumber and mfr. products for export to all three continents.
European Summary • N.A. lumber demand slid south; now shifting east. • We’ll see more lumber shipped to Poland via Germany. • Turkey shows Poland-like promise.
European Summary • Exports to France, Belgium will decline further. • Short-term outlook for many other EU-15 countries is good, but long-term pressures will limit sustained market strength.
Asian Summary • China 8x larger than next largest Asian market. • Price will remain buyers’ main concern • Fickle • Some say too difficult to deal with
Asian Summary • Japan will show steady economic improvement, and increased consumer spending and business investment. • Direct lumber shipments won’t improve
Asian Summary • Taiwan is fading • Modest growth in Hickory, Alder • Thailand is stagnant • Walnut up in 2006 • Korea is flat • Some promise for increased Ash
Asian Summary • Vietnam is market to watch • Yellow Poplar • Cherry • Ash • White Oak
North American Summary Growth Potential for 2006