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The Future of American Religion to 2050

The Future of American Religion to 2050. Vegard Skirbekk Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College (U. London) & Harvard KSG Belfer Center Anne Goujon IIASA. Context and Data. US Census Bureau Race Projections to 2050 No census question

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The Future of American Religion to 2050

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  1. The Future of American Religion to 2050 Vegard Skirbekk Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College (U. London) & Harvard KSG Belfer Center Anne Goujon IIASA

  2. Context and Data • US Census Bureau Race Projections to 2050 • No census question • But can use large surveys (GSS), plus census and immigration statistics • Pew 2007, 2008 surveys for small groups

  3. Methodology • Cohort Component Projections • Multi-State Projection (PDE) Software • Inputs (for each group, by 5 yr age bands and sex): • Base Population • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • Net conversion/apostasy per year • Net immigration per year • Mortality (standard)

  4. Immigration based on numbers acquiring citizenship in 2003-6 (Homeland Security) 1.2m per year Faith of immigrants computed from source countries x religious composition of source countries (CIA Fact Book) Catholic and Other overrepresented, Protestants underrepresented Resident population Net immigrants

  5. Fertility and Population Share, 2003-43

  6. Proportion of Jews and Muslims in the American Population and Electorate (Constant Scenario) Source: GSS; Author’s calculations

  7. White Voting Age Population

  8. Fertility and Population Share, 2003-43

  9. Ethnoreligious Categories by Religious Attitude (%) Source: GSS 2000-2006

  10. Total Fertility Rate by Religious Attitudes, 2003 Source: GSS 2000-2006 Traditionalist-Modernist Fertility Gap, Children Ever Born (CEB), for Women 40-59 Source: GSS 1972-2006

  11. Projected Trends in Opinion Under Various Scenarios

  12. Conclusions: Market Share • Main drivers to 2043 are immigration and secularization, fertility matters more long term • Conversion favours Fundamentalist Protestants but is not large enough to compensate for immigration of Hispanic Catholics and rise of No Religion • Fundamentalist Protestants will decrease in total, among whites, and among voters • Muslims will outnumber Jews by approximately 2020 • Jews, white Catholics and liberal Protestants will decline • Protestants decline from a majority in 2003 to 40 percent by 2043; Catholics may outnumber Protestants by mid-century

  13. Conclusions: Religiosity • Seculars will increase their share of the white population but not of the total population • Secularization will plateau by 2043 and will reverse thereafter. • Secular-Religious Fertility differences between partisans on opposite sides of 'culture war' issues are substantial and growing • Opinion on abortion is likely to become more pro-life • Attitudes regarding homosexuality will be stable, reflecting more liberal attitudes among younger cohorts but more conservative attitudes among demographically-growing groups

  14. The Future of American Religion to 2050 Vegard Skirbekk Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College (U. London) & Harvard KSG Belfer Center Anne Goujon IIASA

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