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The Impact of Power Plays in NHL Hockey, or: No Dogs Play Hockey

The Impact of Power Plays in NHL Hockey, or: No Dogs Play Hockey. Jordan Pedersen, Tom Geiger, and Waleed Khoury. Some Background. A team is said to be on a power play when at least one opposing player is serving a penalty AND The team has a numerical advantage on the ice

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The Impact of Power Plays in NHL Hockey, or: No Dogs Play Hockey

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  1. The Impact of Power Plays in NHL Hockey, or: No Dogs Play Hockey Jordan Pedersen, Tom Geiger, and Waleed Khoury

  2. Some Background • A team is said to be on a power play when at least one opposing player is serving a penalty AND • The team has a numerical advantage on the ice • Whenever both teams have the same number of penalties being served, there is no power play

  3. Methodology • Using League Data for this season and the preceding four seasons • Focusing on Rankings (based on points) and power play conversion percentages • Regular Season

  4. Refresher on 2-Sample T Test • Used to analyze whether the difference in means between two independent groups of data is statistically significant • 1-sample t-tests are for measuring the difference in mean for a single group versus a hypothesized mean

  5. Use of the Test • Test will be used to see if there is a statistically significant difference between power play conversion percentages for top 15 teams vs. bottom 15 teams (based on their Point total) • Therefore, our question is… • Does the ability to convert power plays really affect a team’s ability to win games?

  6. Current Season • Open up PP%Top and Bottom.mtw • We’ll be doing 2008-2009 • A surpriiiiithe?

  7. Mandatory Class Exercise • ¼ of the class does 2007-2008 • ¼ does 2006-2007 • ¼ does 2005-20061 • ¼ does 2003-2004 • 1: Ties and dogs were banned after the 2004-2005 lockout

  8. Relationship between Points (Not Goals) and PP% • Linear Regression Model • Remember, a team is awarded 2 points if they win, 1 point if they lose in OT/shootout, and 0 points if they lose in regulation

  9. 2008-2009

  10. 2007-2008

  11. 2006-2007

  12. 2005-2006

  13. 2003-2004

  14. A Note on Our Failure • We tried to compare shooting percentages on and off a power play, but the NHL is skimpy (unhelpful) when it comes to data • Shots on goal during power plays were unavailable

  15. Conclusions • In general, better teams tend to be better at converting power plays • But a direct correlation was not to be found • More sophisticated data is needed from the league • We attribute this lack of data to lack of dogs in the NHL

  16. Citations • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_play_(sport) • Tommy, AJ, and Catherine’s Presentation (for definition of 2-sample t tests)

  17. Food For Thought… • Why is this dog smoking and playing hockey? • What statistical model would most accurately predict this behavior?

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