John Waclawsky Ph. D. Services Architecture and Governance Motorola, Inc.

Titan against Titan: What Technology will Win? From: Heavily Centralized Control Paradigms To: An Increasing Decentralized World via Internet and Web Technology John Waclawsky Ph. D. Services Architecture and Governance Motorola, Inc.

Agenda • Commonality vs. Competition • Some Innovation Chemistry • Chemistry Migration Lessons • Innovation Eco-systems Model and Area of Common Benefit • Goals and Results • Technology Comparisons • Some Challenges …Always Something New! • Lessons Learned

ISO IETF Competition and Commonality Standards vs. De facto ETSI 3GPP W3C A Key Standards Perspective: Common mechanisms are good …for applications too? • Some applications can leverage standards …billing etc. • Belief: Common control into the application space will facilitate interoperability, easier application creation, more application utility and numerous new applications will emerge by extending commonality. This is a common perspective of IMS/SIP advocates • BUT: has IMS/SIP led to any new applications? “differentiation IS the game”.... Geoffrey Moore

Competition and Commonality (continued)Standards vs. De facto • de facto: Un-commonality is standard for applications • Standards typically commoditize products • tend to make products and services look more or less alike • Standards may be giving competitors some control or even veto power • Applications don't want to “talk” to each other for business reasons • Innovatorsalways look beyond standards for ways to lead Smell Test: Will competition stop? …a single solution /application / signaling / control / format / data protocol, or any other common way to serve customers in a non-competitive manner… Applications drive technology usage, not the selection of some common protocol or standard.

Where is Innovation Thriving?…and what is driving it, …as if we didn’t know! Consider the extended OSI model as “semi-permeable membrane for innovation molecules”! …a part of the Four Area Innovation Model

“extended” The upper three layers are mainly about competitive issues L10 - Technology Religion L9 - Politics L8 - Revenue and Profit Semi-permeable membrane • Model extended because: • Accelerating technology changes • Disruptions and redefinition • Relentless on-going innovation • Business decisions are colored by: • Politics/Ideology, • Financial considerations • Technology religion (driven aspects of a company’s or even an individual’s personality). The OSI Model L7 - Applications L6 - Presentation L5 - Session L4 - Transport L3 - Network L2 - Data Link L1 - Physical

Networking Protocol Layers Religion 1- System-Based 3 – Component-Based L10 Politics L9 Finance L8 Telco / Cable co TITAN s Internet Technology TITAN s L7 L6 L5 L4 L3 L2 L1 2 – Connectivity Innovation 4 – Connectivity Innovation Restricted Competition Open Competition

} } SMS PARLAY Parlay-X IM, eMail VoIP Web CAMEL/IN SIP-IETF TCP/UDP Network Management IP Ethernet RESULTS: Innovation Movement: Mostly “FROM” the Internet Restricted Competition Environment: Telco/Cableco Open Internet Environment L10 - Religion Layering OSI L9 - Politics ISDN L8 - Finance L7 - Applications L6 - Presentation L5 - Session ? SIP-3GPP L4 - Transport GSM/GPRS L3 - Network X.25 L2 - Data Link ATM, DSL DWDM, EDFA L1 - Physical

Telco/Cable co's physical connectivity • Internet services • Upper layers: highlight the Telco/Cable co struggle at services. • Lower Layers: Telecom industry innovation has been centered on basic transmission technologies (e.g., DWDM, EDFA, DSL, GSM) • Sometimes innovation stays within an eco-system and can be quite successful within it: SMS (what about IM), SIP (what about non-SIP) • Things change over time. • E-mail -> AOL -> Gmail L10 Layering OSI L9 ISDN L8 LTE IM, eMail L7 } SMS VoIP L6 Web L5 SIP-IETF ? SIP-3GPP WiMAX L4 TCP/UDP Network Management GSM/GPRS L3 IP X.25 Ethernet L2 ATM, DSL DWDM, EDFA L1 Innovation Migration Lessons Internet is willing to eat its own children as well as the children of others. It isn’t apparent that any telco/cableco’s innovations are eating any Internet children.

Networking Protocol Layers IP, TCP, Web…etc Benefit by following Benefit by leading Benefit by following Benefit by following Area of Common Benefit! (although unrecognized by some) Restricted Competition Open Competition 1- System-Based Internet Technology is becoming increasingly important to the “restrictive competition environment” by providing access to and interacting with the incredible number of web destinations L10 Religion L9 Politics L8 Finance L7 L6 L5 L4 L3 L2 L1

Early / Obvious Model Conclusions • Everyone needs the bottom four layers of the OSI modelThe split is over how to exploit the top of the extended OSI model • Incentive to follow successful lower layer standards and, as a result, allow network-connected products and services to enjoy access to the widest audience • Create new standards to extend connectivity when new technologies emerge or provide ways to better leverage the internet, such as WiMAX “connectivity is its own reward” was often echoed by the early Internet participants, and is embodied in Metcalfe’s law

Networking Protocol Layers Restricted Competition Open Competition Religion L10 Politics L9 • GOALS: • Standardizing communications including: • Interoperability between applications in their respective vertical markets, • Centralized design for end-user control • Total control of application behavior. • RESULTS: • Meeting goals rooted in existing thinking about networking • A highly-controlled, but much-reduced experimentation environment • Depressed innovation activity • From our innovation migration lessons, it is becoming more apparent the trend is that the Internet is the source of innovation • GOALS: • Standardize basic building blocks of communication, NOT application behavior or control of end users. • Everyone to benefits from connectivity. • RESULTS: • Experimentation for new applications, services and technology exploded • Innovation breeding ground spawning numerous high-market capitalization companies: Amazon, Google, eBay… • Enormous wealth engine - February 6th 2006 SIP Forum[1] presentation that concluded “The Internet is responsible for the largest creation of shareholder value in the shortest time in history.”[1] http://www.sipforum.com/ Finance L8 L7 L6 L5 L4 L3 L2 L1

Networking Protocol Layers Gnutella XMPP Skype Will SIP cross-over? A recent example is SIP Joost BitTorrent IMS possibilities? IMS Defacto Benefit by following Benefit by leading Benefit by following Benefit by following Restricted Competition Open Competition L10 Religion L9 Politics L8 Finance L7 Moving this way? L6 L5 L4 Area of Common Benefit The standardized lower levels have also helped solve the bootstrap problem for innovators. These layers facilitate the spread of new, unconventional products and services at the higher layers of the protocol stack. Via existing standardized lower networking layers, anyone can now download and install the software needed to use such new innovations driving concepts such as social networking. That's a key reason new innovations can reach critical mass so quickly. L3 L2 L1

Networking Protocol Layers Restricted Competition Open Competition System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Religion L10 Politics • System technologies about control: • IMS • Quality of Service (QoS) • Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) • RST Injection for TCP protocol • Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) • Digital Rights Management (DRM) • Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers. • Consider an evolution about relationships • Mashup’s • P2P • Encryption • People technology • Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts • Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds • Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source • Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews • Organizing content: Tags • Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter • Cloud computing (XMPP) • Traffic Scattering • Network coding • Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many are “perceived” to provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system. L9 Mashup’s P2P Finance L8 L7 L6 L5 L4 L3 • Other related issues: • Infrastructure costs! • Privacy concerns! • Missing services/functions? L2 L1

Networking Protocol Layers Restricted Competition Open Competition Religion L10 Application vs. No Application Is thinking about applications passé? Politics L9 Finance L8 Centralized: delivered and controlled by a server Distributed: Built on demand, distributed and controlled by the end user devices L7 L6 L5 e.g. IMS and SIP technologies are designed around an application infrastructure supporting paradigm Mashup’s and P2P technologies L4 L3 Is current core network controlled thinking about applications becoming obsolete? L2 L1

P2P (edge to edge)Anyone can offer a service to anyone else! • Mainly Involves: • Sharing of resources by direct exchange (NO man in the middle!), • Ability to self organize (NO control from the middle!), • Deal with intermittent connectivity (NO state maintained or master data base in the middle!), …of the peers, for the peers, by the peers

Networking Protocol Layers If so? …should we run language parsers underneath? Will IM be the future control paradigm? Restricted Competition Open Competition Religion L10 Control: of What? …and How? Politics L9 Centralized: IMS and SIP Distributed: P2P and IM Finance L8 L7 L6 L5 L4 L3 We are moving from an early technology world where we had to talk to machines in their language to an emerging world where machines will talk to us in our language L2 L1

Networking Protocol Layers BTW: this is all true for any kind of traffic Restricted Competition Open Competition Religion L10 Another Example: Circuit Voice vs. VoIP What about Lawful Interception (LI)? Politics L9 Finance Centralized: Circuit Switched network is easy • Data network: Session Border Controller (SBC)* as the point of convergence for VoIP packets. Implementing LI on SBC is the VoIP equivalent of wire tapping on a circuit switched network. *SBC is typically a VoIP session aware device that governs the manner in which VoIP calls are initiated, conducted and terminated in a network. Distributed: VoIP • IP provides numerous methods to ensure data security. • no standardized manner to distinguish voice packets • no telling which path the IP packet will take • what headers get added. L8 L7 L6 L5 L4 L3 L2 Decentralization is effecting LI too! L1

Networking Protocol Layers Restricted Competition Open Competition System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Religion L10 Politics • System technologies about control: • IMS • Quality of Service (QoS) • Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) • RST Injection for TCP protocol • Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) • Digital Rights Management (DRM) • Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers. • Consider an evolution about relationships • Mashup’s • P2P • Encryption • People technology • Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts • Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds • Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source • Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews • Organizing content: Tags • Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter • Cloud computing (XMPP) • Traffic Scattering • Network coding • Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system. L9 Finance L8 L7 L6 L5 Traffic Scattering L4 L3 • Other related issues: • Infrastructure costs • Missing services/functions • Privacy concerns L2 L1

Traffic scattering The world is increasingly connected Bluetooth(R) Cable TV 802.11a Internet What could end-users see? What could STB’s see? 802.11b/g Digital Rabbit ears GSM/GPRS Satellite TV CDMA TV/Radio IR RFID GSM/GPRS GPS CDMA UWB UWB WiMAX WiMAX UMTS UMTS 802.20 802.20 TV / Radio NFC NFC Etc. Etc.

Networking Protocol Layers Restricted Competition Open Competition System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Religion L10 Politics • System technologies about control: • IMS • Quality of Service (QoS) • Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) • RST Injection for TCP protocol • Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) • Digital Rights Management (DRM) • Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers. • Consider an evolution about relationships • Mashup’s • P2P • Encryption • People technology • Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts • Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds • Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source • Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews • Organizing content: Tags • Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter • Cloud computing (XMPP) • Traffic Scattering • Network coding • Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system. L9 Finance L8 L7 L6 L5 Network Coding L4 L3 • Other related issues: • Infrastructure costs • Missing services/functions • Privacy concerns L2 L1

Network Coding • Network coding is a field of information theory and coding theory and is a method of attaining maximum information flow in a network • The core notion of network coding is to allow and encourage mixing of data at intermediate network nodes. • In contrast to traditional ways to operate a network that try to avoid collisions of data streams as much as possible • A receiver sees these data packets and deduces from them the messages that were originally intended for the data sink. • This is an elegant principle that implies a plethora of surprising results http://searchnetworking.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid7_gci1267914,00.html http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=breaking-network-logjams&SID=mail Is current core network controlled thinking about packets becoming obsolete?

Networking Protocol Layers Restricted Competition Open Competition System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Religion L10 Politics • System technologies about control: • IMS • Quality of Service (QoS) • Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) • RST Injection for TCP protocol • Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) • Digital Rights Management (DRM) • Control technologies are mainly desired by companies in the restrictive competition eco-system but have little value for the end-user customers. • Consider an evolution about relationships • Mashup’s • P2P • Encryption • People technology • Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts • Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds • Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source • Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews • Organizing content: Tags • Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter • Cloud computing (XMPP) • Traffic Scattering • Network coding • Many of these technologies have demonstrated considerable end-user value (for example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many provide little or no value to the restrictive competition eco-system. L9 Finance L8 L7 L6 L5 L4 L3 • Other related issues: • Infrastructure costs • Missing services/functions • Privacy concerns L2 L1

QoSHow can QoS work today and in the future?….when you consider… • Emerging future: overlay techniques (P2P), mashup’s, traffic scattering, network coding. • Encryption or use packet-obfuscation • Lowest prioritization for all encrypted traffic? – Privacy is systematically discriminated against. • Most of the time the SERVERS ARE SLOW and NOT the network. • Low Utilization is a fundamental part of network design • Redundancy for reliability. Capacity for peak loads. What does it mean to run a link/box at 10%? • Race with Moore's Law • Link queue can empty faster than you can run instructions to make QoS decisions. • QoS adds complexity • Fiber capacity shifts bottlenecks from pipes to nodes and because of the enormous fiber speeds available, adding node queues to the mix of things that need to be QoS configured and managed doesn't appear to simplify the QoS challenges. • Where is the ROI? • etc. QoS is NOT an adequate substitute for capacity and potentially makes a bad situation much worse

Networking Protocol Layers • Evolution driven by Moore’s Law • Twisted light: excess of 560 Gbps on a single wavelength in a DWDM system today • In the near future it is expected that data rates in excess of 1000 Gbps per wavelength will be possible • Optical Orbital Angular Momentum (OOAM) has the potential to add an almost infinite number of phase states to the modulated signal and further increase the capacity to thousands of terabits. • The number of wavelengths (colors) on a fiber is currently around 80 and climbing • The number of fibers between Internet peering points is approx 200. • OK …you do the math! …looks like the optical to electronic bottleneck makes it impractical to practice “network management” in the core network http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1367-2630/9/9/328/njp7_9_328.html#nj250899s1 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=04388855 http://www.networkworld.com/news/2007/021507-dont-expect-video.html Restricted Competition Open Competition System-Based Innovation Component-Based Innovation Religion L10 Politics • Why this fixation about control? • It is rooted in scarcity concerns about the capacity of the physical layer infrastructure. L9 Finance L8 • This results in a quest to “manage all the traffic” at the higher layers to prevent network resource depletion • To avoid a network wide meltdown • Irrational fear? – I see this perspective hidden in the term “Network Management” which is a code word for control L7 L6 L5 L4 Is the real challenge managing scarcity? …or simply keeping up with technology’s ability to satisfy growing demand. L3 • Other related issues: • Infrastructure costs • Missing services/functions • Privacy concerns L2 L1

At the Heart of the thing known as “The Internet” • It’s an environment that fosters experimentation • Clearly "the place" for innovation of communication services • Seems to be about the absence of impediments • The lack of impediments seen in one eco-system and not the other appears to be making a huge difference in where innovation (and the associated wealth it generates) will be most successful. • More experimentation then more luck! More $$$! • A major part of innovation is what we can call unexpected usage (or luck). However, the luck seems to be on the Internet side these days. • Application-independent, • TCP/IP or UDP are the backbones of the end-to-end nature of the Internet. If history is any guide, a betting man would probably look for the next large market cap company to be about services and come from the Internet eco-system.

A Major Challenge for the Restricted eco-system Technology…. How can any technology which relies on extensive core network control and takes an application focus and consider packet information invariant, adapt to overlay techniques found in P2P networks, traffic scattering, network coding, the increasing use of encryption, the emergence of cloud computing, as well as trends related to dynamically composed and instantiated concoctions (formally known as applications) at the edge of the network? The web is becoming “THE” programming development platform. Now, many view the web as the ultimate programming platform that helps all of humankind

Reality Summary • Early, half-baked is rewarded better • striving for perfect is the enemy of good, and doing so is very time consuming, very expensive, and easily by-passed • Everyone wants to differentiate their products • People always dream of reaching de facto nirvana • Lock in your customers • mine your customer set with derivative products and advertising; • Politics (or group affiliation) overrides many choices • Economic incentives to succeed in the market are the major goals tied to differentiation strategies • Technology religion (personality preferences) will override the benefits of standards to product developers and people running companies focused on success.

Conclusions • Which Titan is winning?? • Restricted vs. Open – this debate is still being waged on the technology battlefield • …The Internet eco-system has spawned great wealth, a massive number of jobs and even helped governments to grow tax revenues across the planet. Understanding competition dynamics on innovation is critical for any company trying to anticipate where the technology is going, instead of chasing it

Advice ….Some Thoughts • It is about winning….. • You should ask for: …the serenity to accept the things I cannot change (attempts to control the Internet), the courage to change the things I can (business cases that ignore reality), • …..and most importantly… • …the wisdom to know the difference!

John Waclawsky Ph. D. Services Architecture and Governance Motorola, Inc.