Moutain Pine Beetle and Wildlife Habitat Supply

1. Moutain Pine Beetle and Wildlife Habitat Supply Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Mountain Pine Beetle, Forestry, and Species Occurrence Basic Model Structure & Implementation Yr 0 Yr 10 Predator Prey Yr 20 Cortex Consultants Inc. BC Ministry of Forests and Range Design Principles for HSM Rationale: ecological & habitat quality changes following widespread MPB-induced tree mortality are poorly known An overall conceptual influence diagram for modeling species occurrences. Blue indicates key ecological correlates as inputs derived from either inventory data or projected data. Orange indicates management levers as inputs nodes derived from policy or procedure rules. Intermediate summary nodes are indicated with gray or brown. Green indicates result nodes that are mapped. • Scoping to define: • Management questions & indicators • Scales (space-time) to represent change • Drivers of habitat change & uncertainty • Types of output • Conceptual modeling: • Apply modular design & aim for simplicity • Decompose species-environment relationships to life-requisites • Define interactions between species and management • Define scalar spatial-temporal relationships • Implementation leads to Alpha HSM model framework • Select/modify existing (tested) models where possible • Submodels can be: • Landscape (vegetation, natural & human disturbance) • Species specific (reproductive, forage, refuge, movement) • Multi-species (predator-prey, competition) • Management (access, mortality) • Validation leads to Beta HSM framework • Model implementation is achieved correctly • Verification leads to Gamma HSM framework • Test each component independently on subsets of study area • Peer review of model predictions/revision • Scenario analysis leads to decision support • projection of alternative management/ecological futures • communication of results & uncertainty Goals: Select a range of wildlife species exhibiting potentially +ve or –ve responses to habitat change Develop life-requisite-based habitat models for each species Infer species occupancyprobabilities in response to MPB-induced changes in forest structure and composition Illustrate utility of approach for the 40 million ha NCC Central Interior Ecoregion Modeling Approach (BBN) and Species Selection (n = 13) Modeling Results Species Habitat Relationships We assessed approaches to species distribution modelling for attributes compatible with cross-scale habitat supply/population estimation: • Selected approach: mechanistic/deductive rather than empirical/inductive • Projection platform: Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) combined with landscape state change simulations Species selected cover 3 gradients of response (habitat loss, predator-prey interactions, human disturbance): • Winners: moose, deer, elk • Losers: fisher, marten, grizzly bear, wolverine lynx, caribou, red squirrel, spruce grouse, sharp-tailed grouse, Lewis’s woodpecker Species Maps Habitat Supply Models • This example map depicts relative occupancy potential for spruce grouse in one of the 33 process units within the study area. Habitat Supply Management Alternatives Resource Inventory Disturbance Scheduler & Forest Estate Models Disturbance & Succession Inferred Pop’n Response Timber Supply & Landscape Conditions MPB Influence on Wildlife Highlights • Detailed species occurrence models included consideration of: • Life requisites • Natural and anthropogenic disturbances • Inter-specific competition • Intra-specific interactions (predator-prey) • Modeling framework was designed so predictions could be forecasted over time based on simulated disturbance scenarios Interpretation Within-stand: MBP-induced pine mortality results in changes in structural/compositional characteristics: • ‘effective’ structural stage -> seasonal forage for ungulates & bears • ‘effective’ canopy closure -> snow interception & understory growth dynamics • movements of ungulates among seasonal ranges (e.g., caribou) • forage availability • population dynamics through seasonal nutrition & exposure to predation & hunting mortality risk • ‘additive’ density & volume of deadwood -> nesting/foraging sites for primary and secondary cavity-users • Among-stands: MBP-induced pine mortality results in changes in access, habitat patch sizes, roads, and/or predators. In turn we can expect species will respond to changes in availability of, and proximity to, life requisites such as security, cover, or forage areas. Future • Alpha model validation • Migrate models from Alpha to Beta version • Apply Beta models and validate • Peer review and possible verification with empirical data • Develop forecasting scenarios based on MPB and/or climate change • Investigate possible paradigms for management Clients BC Ministry of Forests and Range BC Ministry of Environment Nature Conservancy of Canada Credits Don Morgan, Scott McNay, and Glenn Sutherland