Chris Greacen Integrated Resource Planning for Myanmar’s Electricity Sector Naypyitaw , Myanmar

1. Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) -- a tool for Myanmar power sector planning? Lessons from the USA Pacific Northwest Chris Greacen Integrated Resource Planning for Myanmar’s Electricity Sector Naypyitaw, Myanmar 11 Feb 2015

2. Source; U Win Khaing President Myanmar Engineering Society (MES) Member of National Energy Management Committee. http://www.iges.or.jp/files/research/climate-energy/mm/PDF/20131120/3_Khaing.pdf

3. Source; U Win Khaing President Myanmar Engineering Society (MES) Member of National Energy Management Committee. http://www.iges.or.jp/files/research/climate-energy/mm/PDF/20131120/3_Khaing.pdf

4. Outline • A brief history of the power sector in Pacific Northwest of USA • Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) • What is it? • What steps are involved? • Example: IRP and energy efficiency in the Pacific Northwest

5. A Brief POWER SECTOR HISTORY of the PACIFIC NORTHWEST usa

9. Columbia River salmon catch

10. Large dams in Pacific Northwest

11. History of Integrated Resource Planning • Pre-1980, utilities used “straight-line” load forecasts (a ruler) to make resource decisions

12. Straight-line demand forecasting led to huge financial commitments to very large power plants

13. IRP History-con’t. • Utilities and regulators ask, “Is there a better way?” • 20 Years ago WUTC adopted rules to require investor-owned utilities to prepare a Least Cost Planning or “Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). • consider demand elasticity • consider demand side resources

14. Source: Wilson, Rachel, and Bruce Biewald. 2013. “Best Practices in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning: Examples of State Regulations and Recent Utility Plans”. Regulatory Assistance Project. http://www.synapse-energy.com/ Downloads/SynapseReport.2013-06.RAP.Best-Practicesin-IRP.13-038.pdf

15. What is Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)? Simply put, IRP means meeting power sector objectives at the lowest cost. Consider a range of different options Include all costs (generation, transmission, social & environmental costs) Chose option the provides best benefit at lowest cost/risk profile

16. IRP Flowchart Objectives Defined ITERATION Data collection, systems analysis Demand forecast scenarios (by end use) Meeting electricity requirement: options T&D IMPROVEMENTS END-USE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS GENERATIONPLANTS UNIT COSTS OF ALTERNATIVES ($ / kWh) GWh YEAR B A C LEAST COST MIX $/kWh GWh Strategies Periodic Monitoring Source: D’Sa, A. (2005). "Integrated resource planning (IRP) and power sector reform in developing countries." Energy Policy 33(10): 1271-1285. Implementation

17. Source: Puget Sound Energy

18. Public participation matters Dixit, S., A. Chitnis, B. Jairaj, S. Martin, D. Wood, and A. Kundu. 2014. “10 Questions to Ask About Integrated Resources Planning.” Working Paper. Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute. Available online at http://www.wri.org/ publication/10-questions-integrated-resource-planning. South Africa’s IRP Before and after public participation

19. “Full Featured” IRP status the IRP process is required by law the process is subject to public review; regulators require integration of construction permit and utility ratemaking processes with the IRP process

20. Example: IRP and energy efficiency in the Pacific Northwest IRP objective: minimize cost to meet growing electricity demand

21. Washington State Fuel Mix 2013 WA State Department of Commerce: http://www.commerce.wa.gov/Programs/Energy/Office/Utilities/Pages/FuelMix.aspx

22. Variation in Hydro Generation

23. Resource Costs: Long Term Clean Coal Coal Gas Energy Efficiency Source: Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2012. (Pacific Northwest, USA) Online at http://www.puc.state.or.us/meetings/pmemos/2012/022412/NorthwestPowerandConservationCouncilHandout.pdf

24. Cost comparison for different resource options in Pacific Northwest, USA Source: Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 5th Plan.

25. T-5 Insulate roofs to keep cool in

26. Supply options in NW USA Source: The 5th NW Electric Power and ConservationPlan

27. Supply options in NW USA Source: The 5th NW Electric Power and ConservationPlan

28. Energy efficiency to meet over 60% of new demand Sixth Plan Resource Portfolio

29. Accomplishments have Exceeded Targets Every Year Since 2005

30. Average Utility Levelized Cost of Conservation Remains Low

31. Average Cost of Utility Acquired Savings Continues to Be Lower and Less Volatile Than Wholesale Market Electricity Prices May 1996 – March 2013 Average Wholesale Market Price (2006$)

32. Lessons Learned – Power System Planning • Energy Efficiency Reduces System Cost and Risk • Efficiency Resources Are A Low Cost (avg. 2.4 cents/kWh) Hedge Against Market Price Spikes • They’re Not Subject to Fuel Price Risk • They’re Not Subject to Carbon Control Risk • They Can Be Significant Enough In Size to delay “build decisions” on more expensive and higher risk generation • It takes REAL MONEY, DATA and ANALYSIS to properly size efficiency resources • Northwest invests about $15 per capita each year acquiring efficiency, several other US states are spending more

33. More information… Dixit, S., A. Chitnis, B. Jairaj, S. Martin, D. Wood, and A. Kundu. 2014. “10 Questions to Ask About Integrated Resources Planning.” Working Paper. Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute. Available online at http://www.wri.org/ publication/10-questions-integrated-resource-planning.

34. More information… Dixit, S., A. Chitnis, B. Jairaj, S. Martin, D. Wood, and A. Kundu. 2014. “10 Questions to Ask About Integrated Resources Planning.” Working Paper. Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute. Available online at http://www.wri.org/ publication/10-questions-integrated-resource-planning.

35. For more information Chris Greacen Palang Thai chrisgreacen@gmail.com www.palangthai.org

36. Small Power Producer Regulations Integrated Resource Planning for Myanmar’s Electricity Sector Workshop 11 February 2015 Naypyitaw, Myanmar Dr. Chris Greacen

37. Small Power Producer (SPP) regulations $ Thai “Very Small Power Producer” documents : www.eppo.go.th/power/vspp-eng/index.html Tanzania “Small Power Producer” documents: www.ewura.go.tz/sppselectricity.html

38. Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand • Built by government & community • 40 kW • Used to be off-grid; • Making arrangements to sell electricity to grid

39. Mwenga 4 MW hydroTanzania800 households in 15 villages (expanding to 4000) & sells to the grid

40. TPC, Moshi - Tanzania17.5 MW – selling 3-4 MW to main gridCogenerationSugarcane bagasse

41. Key features of Tanzania’sSmall Power Producer (SPP) regulatory framework • Up to 10 MW (export) • Licensing • Only required if > 1MW • Provisional license (developer’s choice) • If selling to utility… • Streamlined interconnection agreements • Standardized PPAs • Standardized tariffs

42. Key features of Small Power Producer (SPP) regulatory framework (continued) • If selling to retail customers… • SPP proposes a tariff based on cost of service • Exemption from retail tariff approval for projects under 100 kW • No regulatory approval necessary for tariffs to anchor customers > 250 kW • Rights for isolated mini-grid operators “when the big grid connects to the little grid.”

43. http://tiny.cc/SPPmyanmar

44. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/16571

45. Grid interconnection mini-grid power systems up to 200 kW https://palangthai.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/a-guidebook-for-minigrids-serc-lbnl-march-2013.pdf

46. For more information Chris Greacen Palang Thai chrisgreacen@gmail.com www.palangthai.org