Top Mega Trends in Russia

1. Top Mega Trends in Russia

2. Economy: Russia Beyond Moscow - The Next Game Changers, Economic Engines for Growth Russia’s economic hotspots – cities, regions Sources of economic growth – industries, products, services Diversification away from oil and gas towards innovative economy Social Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social Mobility Growing purchasing power of population and emergence of middle class; Social mobility Higher demand for intangible products – entertainment, services, investment Education – Federal Universities, National research centres Solid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in Russia Healthcare as a National Security Doctrine: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing From treatment to prevention National drug manufacturing Telemedicine and e-healthcare Health insurance and private healthcare Contents

3. Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors Moscow “Big City” project Vladivostok – mega hub in the Far East For discussion: Moscow - St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai-Delhi case-study) Infrastructure Development: the Silk Road of Modern Age and Beyond Europe-Western China Highway: Russia – Kazakhstan – China Development of Trans-Siberian Railway and era of high-speed rail Regional air traffic growth and new aviation hubs – drivers and restraints Modern Russia Modernization of obsolete infrastructure and manufacturing capacities E-government / e-services as an alternative to paperwork of the Soviet era Back to Russia Localization of manufacturing in Russia – hi-tech alternative to mass production in Asia Reverse brain drain Contents

4. Key Technology Developments Biotech (e.g. targeted drug delivery), nanotech, energy (e.g. floating nuclear station), LED lighting Technology leapfrogging (e.g. from 2G to 4G/LTE) Satellite technology for traffic management, weather control Hybrid and electric vehicles “Smart” is the New Green Smart meters, smart buildings, smart grid and smart cities Other applications - smart traffic-lights, smart bandages, etc. Mega Events Investments, infrastructure and technology, Russia brand promotion, mass sport industry: APEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012) Winter Olympics (Sochi, 2014) Formula 1 Grand Prix (Sochi, 2014) Soccer World Cup (2018) Contents

5. Social Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social Mobility Growing purchasing power of population and emergence of middle class; Social mobility Higher demand for intangible products – entertainment, services, investment Education – Federal Universities, National research centres Solid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in Russia Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors Moscow “Big City” project Vladivostok – mega hub in the Far East For discussion: Moscow - St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai-Delhi case-study) Modern Russia Modernization of obsolete infrastructure and manufacturing capacities E-government / e-services as an alternative to paperwork of the Soviet era Back to Russia Localization of manufacturing in Russia – hi-tech alternative to mass production in Asia Reverse brain drain Mega Events Investments, infrastructure and technology, Russia brand promotion, mass sport industry: APEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012) Winter Olympics (Sochi, 2014) Formula 1 Grand Prix (Sochi, 2014) Soccer World Cup (2018) Mega Trends for Skolkovo working groups

6. Guidelines and useful hints

7. Guidelines • Approach and methodology: create hypothesis based on economical, statistical data, press releases, companies web sites and annual reviews, blogs and other secondary sources on information. Some new trends and hypothesis besides mentioned in the short-list are always welcome but need to be discussed and proved. Macro to micro trends analysis. • Structure: hypothesis, some proving facts and data, analysis based on common sense, reliable scientific and economical articles and investigations expert opinions (may include the interviews made by the students themselves), visualization of ideas. • Frost & Sullivan role: short-list of Mega Trends preparation, assistance with some data and primary information. Moderation of discussions within working groups, assistance with data collection and analysis techniques. Assistance with data visualization. • Requirements to collection and formulation arguments for new/ existing Mega Trend • Every trend realization (in general) should be supported with: • Existing or planned project or technology R&D better with announced financial plans or intentions, proving the whole trend (time of realization, approx. amount of investments) • Announced government support, special legislation framework, government programs and initiatives, co-investment initiatives. • Some data (e.g. backward statistics or current and future situation analysis, experts point of view, etc) proving social, economic, technology, whatever, local or global trends. • Good examples or success stories proving the hypothesis (in Russia or in other countries as well). • And vice versa: if you think that of the trends for some reason won’t work for Russia you should be ready to prove it with some valuable facts.

8. To analyse: Middle class size (now and in 2020), its main characteristics (incl. distribution per country), related economic trends (demands, development, interdependency with economic processes, etc.) Social mobility trends: economic, geographic and infrastructure aspects (benefits, threats). Why do we need it? How it could be intensified? Higher demand for intangible products – entertainment, services, investment (new services, new markets and market opportunities) Current and Future Education systems for Generation Y (announced plans and reforms), necessities, main trends – globalization, education in Russia and abroad (statistics, predictions), social effects, opportunities, benefits. To think about: Social thinking: social networks (current statistics, trends), social innovations, personalization(new trends and applications) Solid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in Russia (traditional forms of education). Complex approach and reformation, new shape of high education: Federal Universities, National research centres. Social Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social Mobility

9. To analyse: Moscow “Big City” project: Announced plans and investments (opportunities, problems, concerns) Development strategy (infrastructure, transport system, social aspects) Investments and project realization period Regional impact. Is it possible? Why do we need it? Vladivostok – mega hub in the Far East: Complex development of Vladivostok before and after APEC 2012 summit Opportunities and problems for Vladivostok as a hub and connection point between Russia and Asia. Possible locations-competitors. Level of investments needed and announced (perspectives) Regional impact. Why is it so important? To think about: Moscow - St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai-Delhi case-study) Prerequisites for corridor creation (trends and examples), costs and future opportunities Project execution (plans, timing, possibility and necessity) Russian urbanization trends in general. Another examples of Mega Regions/ corridors in Russia. Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors

10. To analyse: Current and announced modernization programmes and initiatives (plans, investment level, goals, realization period) – state and private trends, Some industry examples: oil and gas (oil refining), and/or utilities (water/gas/electricity supply, wastewater), Expectations and impact on various industries (some related statistics could be useful) New technologies application in industry and economy (how they could influence on current situation or shape new trends), E-government implementation in Russia (current situation, statistics, perspectives, comparison with another countries - United Nations “E-government reports”, situation in different countries: leaders and best practices to understand main trends. To think about: “Strategy 2020” state programme, Business initiatives and expectations, Various sectors opportunities: space, energy, ITC, etc., Russia: current state vs future opportunities : cost of paper services and e-government approach (plans, budget spending). What do we actually gain and what we lose? Modern Russia

11. To analyze: Localization of manufacturing in Russia – hi-tech alternative to mass production in Asia region (trends, reasons, opportunities, threats), Different practical aspects: manufacturing capabilities, human capital, geographic position, infrastructure), Leading international companies and their plans in Russia: manufacturing localization, R&D, etc. Reverse brain drain process: Is it truly exist? Do people return or it’s just “brain circulation” (reasons, statistics, positive and negative sides)? Current trends and government plans and expectations To think about: Current position and Russian perspectives in global economy. Is “Back to Russia” possible and why? Global experience of the same processes. Reverse brain drain: globalization of modern science (volume of brain drain, cost for economy, conditions for return – to analyse if it’s possible or not). Global trends. Back to Russia

12. To analyse: Mega Events in Russia APEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012) Winter Olympics (Sochi, 2014) Formula 1 Grand Prix (Sochi, 2014) Soccer World Cup (2018) Different aspects: investments, infrastructure and technology (threats and opportunities) Impact to national economy (direct and indirect): tourism, production, investments Private and state approach and contribution, Global experience: success stories and bad examples (London, Beijing, Mexico-2010 celebration programmes) To think about: Mega events as a part of national promotion strategy: does it really work? Russia brand promotion: current image and perception, trends and the ways to improve Mega Events

13. Examples

14. Case Study: Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) – One of the Biggest Manmade Corridors; Completed by 2020 $90 1,483 billion km Estimated cost of completion; funding from Japanese and Indian governments on a 50:50 basis road and rail link length Investment Regions 3 7 million people states employment opportunities, 70%in manufacturing and processing to be integrated along the corridor 6 9 investment regions Industrial zones 7 emerging Mega Cities 3 ports, 6 airports and high speed freight lines each of 200 sq km size, projected tripling of exports in 5 years Source and Photo Credits: DMIC

15. Case Study: Jaypee Green Sports City—India's First $1B Urban Integrated City to be Completed by 2013 • The 2,500-acre Jaypee Greens Sports Complex in Noida, New Delhi, is comprised of apartments and villas, lakes and canals. social clubs, a motor racing track, a cricket stadium, and other international sports centres. Cricket Stadium Upcoming in-built cricket stadium, which boasts a capacity of 10,000 people. 18-hole golf course and 18 km of green boulevard across 215 acres of landscape, waterways, and recreational facilities. Golf Course and Green Park Motor Racing Track Buddh International Circuit, over 875 acres in length,has already hosted the very first F1 Motor Race in India in October 2011. Lake District Residential Lake District includes villas, town homes, and mid- to high-rise apartment blocks. Other Sports facilities 25,000-seat hockey stadium, a go-karting facility, and a sports academy have been planned. Country Homes RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL Country-style homes with a capacity to house a total of more than 1.5 lakh families. SPORTS FACILITIES • Total Investment • Sports City Complex: $820 million • Additional Contract Fee (Formula One): $175 million ($35 million p.a. for 5 years) • Important Dates • Tentative date of completion: 2013 Source: JaypeeGroup (Company Website)

16. E-Governance in India: Examples of Emerging G2G, G2C, and G2B Services in India MEDIUM INTERACTIONS SERVICES (Examples) IMPLICATIONS G2G • E-Training, e-Payroll, Budget Control, e-Funds Transfer • e Files, Decision Support System • Increase efficiency between different functional areas of government • Transparency for stakeholders in G2G transactions Installation of service centres, kiosks, Internet, fax, phone, e-mail, WAN, data servers, application servers Government to Government G2C • E-Delivery of Land Records, e-Payments for Utility Services, Electoral Services • E-Registration • E-Licenses and e-Permits • Vehicle Tracking System • Efficient delivery of a long range of public services 24/7 • One Stop Shop for all G2C and B2C services Government to Citizens G2B • E-Licensing • E-Permits • E-Procurement (Pre- and Post-Bid) • E-Revenue Collection • E-Business and e-Forms • Cut red tape and save time • Reduce operational costs for businesses • Increase buying power • Transparency in bidding process Government to Business Source: 11th Report, Second Administrative Reforms Commission, “Promoting e-Governance”, Government of India, 2008