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Whither Nanotechnology

Explore the potential of molecular nanotechnology and its impact on manufacturing cost, atom placement, and product precision, as we aim for groundbreaking technological advancements and innovative capabilities.

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Whither Nanotechnology

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  1. Whither Nanotechnology Ralph C. Merkle Xerox PARC www.merkle.com

  2. Seventh Elba-Foresight Conference on NanotechnologyApril, 1999Rome, Italywww.foresight.org/Conferences

  3. The goal: nanotechnology(a.k.a. molecular manufacturing) • Fabricate most structures that are specified with molecular detail and which are consistent with physical law • Get essentially every atom in the right place • Inexpensive manufacturing costs (~10-50 cents/kilogram) http://nano.xerox.com/nano

  4. Where we are today • We can make only an infinitesimal fraction of what’s possible • We spray atoms around almost randomly • We pay many millions of dollars per kilogram for the thin layer on top of a computer chip that actually computes

  5. Possible arrangements of atoms What we can make today (not to scale) .

  6. The goal of molecular nanotechnology: a healthy bite. .

  7. We must develop fundamentally new capabilities Molecular Manufacturing Systems We don’t have molecular manufacturing today. . What we can make today (not to scale)

  8. Should we actively pursue the development of molecular nanotechnology? • Is it feasible? • Is it valuable? • Can we do things today to speed it’s development?

  9. The good news It is now generally accepted that molecular nanotechnology is feasible and valuable. (This took a few decades)

  10. The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do not speak against the possibility of maneuvering things atom by atom. It is not anattempt to violate any laws; it is something, in principle, that can be done; but in practice, it has not been done because we are toobig. Richard Feynman, 1959 http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/feynman.html

  11. Most interesting structures that are at least substantial local minima on a potential energy surface can probably be made one way or another. Richard Smalley Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996

  12. The bad news There’s still a great deal of confusion and disagreement about what to do

  13. What needs to be done Experimental work to advance existing capabilities Theoretical work to clarify pathways and objectives

  14. Overview of the development of molecular nanotechnology Products Products Core molecular manufacturing capabilities Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Today Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products Products

  15. Issues Positional control Self replication Idiosyncratic versus systematic Making big things How long

  16. A proposal for a programmable molecular positional device

  17. Issues with positional control Speed Size Error rates Imperfect environment Tip characteristics

  18. Proposal for a self replicating device: an assembler http://www.foresight.org/UTF/Unbound_LBW/chapt_6.html

  19. Von Neumann architecture for a self replicating system Universal Computer Universal Constructor http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/vonNeumann.html

  20. Drexler’s architecture for an assembler Molecular computer Molecular constructor Positional device Tip chemistry

  21. Complexity of self replicating systems (bits) • C program 808 • Von Neumann's universal constructor 500,000 • Internet worm (Robert Morris, Jr., 1988) 500,000 • Mycoplasma capricolum 1,600,000 • E. Coli 9,278,442 • Drexler's assembler 100,000,000 • Human 6,400,000,000 • NASA Lunar • Manufacturing Facility over 100,000,000,000 http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/selfRep.html

  22. A C program that prints out an exact copy of itself main(){char q=34, n=10,*a="main() {char q=34,n=10,*a=%c%s%c; printf(a,q,a,q,n);}%c";printf(a,q,a,q,n);} For more information, see the Recursion Theorem: http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/selfRep.html

  23. English translation: Print the following statement twice, the second time in quotes: “Print the following statement twice, the second time in quotes:”

  24. Idiosyncratic vs systematic Idiosyncratic view: each new thing that we synthesize requires some new and unique method of making it which takes much time and effort to work out. Systematic view: new things are made by using old tools in different ways to rearrange standard parts.

  25. Is nanotechnology only about small things? Nanotechnology sounds like it’s about making small things. But it’s actually about the precision with which we make things of all sizes, including very big things.

  26. How long? • We don’t know • Trends in computer hardware suggest early in the next century — perhaps in the 2010 to 2020 time frame • How long it takes depends on what we do. A focused effort will greatly speed development.

  27. It’s possible to think that “nanotechnology” • Won’t involve positional control • Won’t involve self replication • Won’t be systematic • Will only make small things • Will take 100 years

  28. Can we abandon these principles without compromising the goal? • Positional control • Self replication • Systematic methods • Products of all sizes • A focused effort to develop the technology within our lifetimes

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