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Transmission Needs Analysis Scenario 5/7 Update

Transmission Needs Analysis Scenario 5/7 Update. December 7, 2012. Agenda. Review Scenario Characteristics Review Incremental Resources Review Base Case Upgrades Economic Analysis Key Lessons (S5/S7) LTSA Previews. Scenario Characteristics. Scenario 5: Drought

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Transmission Needs Analysis Scenario 5/7 Update

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  1. Transmission Needs AnalysisScenario 5/7 Update December 7, 2012

  2. Agenda • Review Scenario Characteristics • Review Incremental Resources • Review Base Case Upgrades • Economic Analysis • Key Lessons (S5/S7) • LTSA Previews

  3. Scenario Characteristics Scenario 5: Drought • Characterized by extended drought • Summer capabilities of existing water-consuming resources de-rated • New water-consuming resources sited primarily in the East • Water costs are assigned to water-intensive resources • Increased peak load Scenario 7: BAU – Hi Natural Gas • Characterized by a high natural gas price ($9.55 by 2016, $13.70 by 2022) • Resources retire in 2018 and 2022 for competitive reasons

  4. Resource Build: Scenario 5

  5. Scenario 5 Resources

  6. Base Case Thermal Reliability Upgrades – Scenario 5 (2022) • Water availability and higher LMP’s drive thermal/gas expansion units to areas East/South of Dallas and North of Houston. • New resources East and South of the Dallas Metro area caused base-case overloads • New resources North of Houston created increased congestion and overloads on the 345 kV imports North – Houston.

  7. Scenario 5: Base Case Reliability Upgrades *Note: Houston imports were upgraded in preparation of the base case, though “backed out” in reliability analysis. The upgrade of the existing North to Houston imports is likely unfeasible.

  8. Scenario 5: AC Stability Limitations *Assumes no incremental gas units are built in the LRGV

  9. Scenario 5: Most congested elements • Most Congested Elements in S5: • Twin Oak-Jack Creek, • Jack Creek-Gibbons Creek, • Gibbons Creek-Singleton, • Jewett-Singleton • (north of Houston region) • Hill Country-Skyline • (San Antonio region) • Dallas interface congestion

  10. Scenario 5: Economic Analysis

  11. Scenario 5: Key Lessons • Water availability and higher LMPs draw new resources East / Southeast of Dallas and North / Northwest of Houston • Increased peak loads increase stress on the 138kV systems in and around Houston / Dallas • Base case overloads are more prevalent on existing urban import paths • Heavy congestion North – Houston supports economic transmission expansion for expanded import capacity into Houston

  12. Scenario 7: Resource Build

  13. Scenario 7: Resources / Retirements

  14. Scenario 7: Base Case Thermal Reliability Upgrades • Large amount of wind generation at Panhandle area, load forecasted for 2022 and other incremental resources assumed in the scenario result in: • Major 345 kV line upgrades in Panhandle area to accommodate large amount of wind • generation, • Some 345 kV line upgrades around Houston area and other transmission upgrades • needed for urban areas primarily driven by load serving issue

  15. Scenario 7: AC Stability Limitations * Need for analysis in Scenario 7 because of massive build-out of wind in the Panhandle region

  16. Scenario 7: Base Case Reliability Upgrades

  17. Scenario 7: Most congested elements • Most Congested Elements in S7: • Panhandle interface limit • Singleton-Zenith and other 345 kV lines around Singleton area (north of Houston region) • Parker-Benbrook 345 kV line (west of DFW region)

  18. Scenario 7: Economic Analysis

  19. Scenario 7: Economic Analysis

  20. Scenario 7: Key Lessons • An increase in NG price favors renewable expansion • Favorable wind profiles drive interconnected wind on the CREZ system beyond full-build out design capability • Stability limitations for increasing transfers from the Panhandle to load require further study, new infrastructure • Increased congestion (due to urban retirements) supports economic transmission expansion for imports into Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio

  21. Questions?

  22. LTS Preview / Summary Data

  23. Renewable Resource Integration Retirement BAU -New Wind Drought Hi Nat Gas Environmental

  24. Upgrade Summaries

  25. Upgrade Summaries 1 – BAU 2 - Retirement 3- BAU / New Wind 5a –Drought 7 - Hi Nat Gas

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