The Economic Development of the Solar System as the Heart of a 21 st Century Spacepower Theory

1. The Economic Development of the Solar System as the Heart of a 21st Century Spacepower Theory Dennis Wingo Chapter Author, National Defense University Book on Space Power Theory

2. Spacepower Theory • Space Power Theory is the Outgrowth and Evolution of Previous Theories • Land Power Theory (Clausewitz, Sun Tsu) • Sea Power Theory (Mahan) • Air Power Theory (Mitchell) • Military Power is Founded on the Strength of Nation as a Whole (Economy or National Power)

3. Choices for the Future • “As we enter the first decades of the 21st century profound challenges confront the United States and the family of nations in transcending the limitations of hydrocarbon energy and other resources looming in this century.” • Do we retreat into a “One World View” of a limited view and limited resources or do we expand our horizons with the economic development of the solar system?

4. Marburger 2006 Goddard Symposium Speech • As I see it, questions about the vision boil down to whether we want to incorporate the Solar System in our economic sphere, or not. Our national policy, declared by President Bush and endorsed by Congress last December in the NASA authorization act, affirms that, "The fundamental goal of this vision is to advance U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests through a robust space exploration program.” (Marburger) • In order to clearly contrast the departure that this new policy represents, here is the equivalent statement by the National Academies of Science in 1961: • Scientific exploration of the moon and planets should be clearly stated as the ultimate objective of the U.S. space program for the foreseeable future. • The NASA VSE is STILL Torn Between These Two Statements

5. Why the VSE is Faltering • Without the Economic Development of Space Incorporated as a Core Value of the VSE It will Not be Funded To Completion • The Constellation Program at this Time has Only Narrow Scientific Goals and Only a Nod to the Moon on the Way to The Holy Grail of Mars • Learning to Live off the Planet with Local Resources IS a Scientific Goal (Spudis 2008)

6. Why the Moon First • “We go to Mars to Take Our Civilization There, We Go to the Moon to Help Save our Civilization Here” (Wingo 2004:Moonrush) • The Moon is Where We Learn to be a Multi-planet Species.

7. Where and What • The Lunar Polar Outpost is a Great Start, Though the North May Be Superior to the South (says a great grandchild of the Confederacy) • Mare ~430 km from the North Pole, ~1400 from the South Pole • Four Peaks of Eternal Sunlight in the North and Zero (80% but not 100) in the South

8. History of the Death of SEI • Too Expensive • Had to Have Station First • Had to Have Heavy Lift • Had to Have Nuclear Power • Today • We Have the Station for an Orbital Outpost • Heavy Lift? Maybe • Nuclear Power- Not Needed at the N Pole

9. Energy is the Key • The Development of the Moon Mirrors in Microcosm the Problems that We Face On the Earth in Macrocosm • Energy • Resources • Industry • Creativity

10. Energy • We Cannot Yet Afford Nuclear Within the Budget • 1 Megawatt of Solar Photovoltaic at the North Pole May Be the Tipping Point • Provides Enough Energy to Provide Multi Tons of Oxygen and Metals Per Year Leading to Lessoning The Transportation Requirements from Earth

11. Metals on the Moon • Many ISRU Processes Provide Metals as Well As Oxygen from the Regolith at the 1 Megawatt Level • Build Solar Thermal Reflectors to Multiply Effective Power • Build Habitats, Vehicle Chassis, and Heavy Equipment (Dozier Blades, Dump Truck Bodies, Landing Pads, Railroads) • Deriving Silicon Allows for More Power, which provides more materials which provides more power, which provides more materials (Tipping point)

12. Tipping Point Benefits • As more metals and Oxygen produced (hopefully water but not counted on)The Payloads from the Earth Undergo a Fundamental Shift • Subsystems (motors, computers, software, and high tech gear,) become the primary cargo as well as food [i.e. Fewer if any completed systems such as rovers, habs, and other heavy aggregate systems]

13. Tipping Point II • The Shift in Cargo Lessens if Not Eliminates the Need for Heavy Lift • As the cargos become parts not systems, they become smaller and able to be packaged, Also, ISS with 9 vehicles going to it by 2014 becomes a transshipment point to the Moon with reusable cislunar transportation systems becoming viable, which then justifies the development of an RLV, which makes heavy lift obsolete.

14. Cislunar Economic Development • With 1 megawatt of energy as the beginning, and a robust ISRU development, the Moon shifts to the Earth’s First Homeport Off the Planet • Ubiquitous Cislunar and Near Earth Operations • High Flight Rates • Robust Reusable Vehicles • Commercial Development of the Moon

15. The Moon in 2030 • 10,000 Tons of Metal Per Year • 25-100 People Living on the Moon • Large GEO Platforms • Large Libration Point Science Platforms • Mars Beckons

16. Mars from the Moon • “Establishing an extended human presence on the moon could vastly reduce the costs of further space exploration, making possible ever more ambitious missions. Lifting heavy spacecraft and fuel out of the Earth's gravity is expensive. Spacecraft assembled and provisioned on the moon could escape its far lower gravity using far less energy, and thus, far less cost. Also, the moon is home to abundant resources. Its soil contains raw materials that might be harvested and processed into rocket fuel or breathable air. We can use our time on the moon to develop and test new approaches and technologies and systems that will allow us to function in other, more challenging environments. The moon is a logical step toward further progress and achievement.” • President George W. Bush January 2004 • Were We Listening?