UNDP RBA MDG-Based National Development Planning Workshop Conducting an MDG Needs Assessments: Technical Issues Chandri

1. UNDP RBA MDG-Based National Development Planning Workshop Conducting an MDG Needs Assessments: Technical Issues Chandrika Bahadur, UN Millennium Project Abdoulie Sireh-Jallow, UNDP Zambia February 27- March 3, 2006

2. Agenda • Objectives of MDG based needs assessments • Overview of different costing methodologies • The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector • Implementing a needs assessment process www.unmillenniumproject.org

3. Motivation The Needs Assessment Exercise aims to flip the question: FROM: How close can we get to the MDGs under the current constraints? TO: What will it take to achieve the MDGs? www.unmillenniumproject.org

4. Principles of development strategies that are MDG based Typical strategy today MDG-based development strategy MDG target Level of MDG progress ? 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline YEAR YEAR www.unmillenniumproject.org

5. Objectives of Needs Assessment • Answer the question: “What would it take to achieve the MDGs?” • Translate the MDGs into operational targets • “Localize” the MDGs • Develop a strategy for increasing “absorptive capacity” • Strengthen coherence between planning and budget processes and guide programming of expenditures • NOT limited to MDGs; can be used as a framework for assessing needs of other relevant sectors for the country • Provide a monitoring and accountability framework • Support the national policy dialogue and negotiations with development partners www.unmillenniumproject.org

6. Approach to aligning national development strategies with the MDGs Needs assessmentthrough 2015 Long-term plan aligned with the MDGs MDG-based development strategy • Short-term 3-5 year strategy to launch 10-year strategy, including: • MTEF • Macro framework • “What needs to be done right now?” • Identify combination of scaled up inputs needed to meet MDGs • “What” & “How Much” • Identify combination of policies and programs to meet needs • “How To” www.unmillenniumproject.org

7. What is an MDG Needs Assessment? • Who andwhere are the poor? • Identifying the population in need, based on existing analyses • What needs to be done? • Based on current programs and sector strategies • Needs assessment from now until 2015 • Goods, services, infrastructure • How much will it cost and what are the human resource implications? • Local unit costs x population in need • Human resources required to meet each MDG www.unmillenniumproject.org

8. MDG Needs Assessment Approach 1.Identify interventions 2.Specify targets for each intervention 3.Estimate resource needs 4.Check results www.unmillenniumproject.org

9. Suggested Investment Clusters • Rural development • Urban development • Health systems, including HIV/AIDS • Education • Gender equality • Environment • Science, technology and innovation • Cross-national infrastructure • Public sector management www.unmillenniumproject.org

10. Agenda • Objectives of MDG based needs assessments • Overview of different costing methodologies • The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector • Implementing a needs assessment process www.unmillenniumproject.org

11. Comparing Costing Methodologies www.unmillenniumproject.org

12. Comparing Costing Methodologies www.unmillenniumproject.org

13. Comparing Costing Methodologies www.unmillenniumproject.org

14. Agenda • Objectives of MDG based needs assessments • Overview of different costing methodologies • The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector • Implementing a needs assessment process www.unmillenniumproject.org

15. MDG needs assessment approach www.unmillenniumproject.org

16. Target coverage rates for: • Primary Education • Secondary Education • Adult Literacy Country demographic data Capital and recurrent costs per student Education Needs Assessment Approach (1) Students reached by interventions TOTAL COSTS Cost components for key interventions www.unmillenniumproject.org

17. Education Needs Assessment Approach (2) Estimation of classrooms needed Direct and indirect financial costs Estimation of teachers needed Capacity Requirements _ _ _ = Total Education Needs www.unmillenniumproject.org

18. Primary school interventions (1/2) * Not included in MP preliminary cost estimates www.unmillenniumproject.org

19. Primary school interventions (2/2) * Not included in preliminary cost estimates www.unmillenniumproject.org

20. Post-Primary Interventions and Targets www.unmillenniumproject.org

21. Estimating Resource Needs: Education Needs Assessment Tool The Education Needs Assessment Tool allows users to translate intervention and target choices into quantitative estimates of financial and human resource needs Go to Education NA Tool  www.unmillenniumproject.org

22. Key Drivers of Cost and Variation The key drivers of cost and variation in a comprehensive country-wide needs assessment are: • Differences in population in need • Differences in choice of interventions • Differences in income levels www.unmillenniumproject.org

23. Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessments • “Absorptive capacity” constraints are real in the short term, but can be gradually relaxed through investments in human resources, infrastructure and management systems • Focus on interventions that require full or partial public financing • Include capital and operating costs for all sectors • Strive for maximum disaggregation • Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions can be modified depending on country contexts and specific needs www.unmillenniumproject.org

24. Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessments • Undertaken in national planning contexts • Target setting, identification of interventions, unit costs done in consultative manner, reviewed by technical experts • Periodic revision of targets/interventions based on new information and implementation of programs • Methodology can be adapted to suit local contexts, provided basic MDG assumptions remain- no “one-size-fits-all” www.unmillenniumproject.org

25. Limitations Of Needs Assessments • Planning, not implementation tool • Input into planning process, not a plan in itself • A necessary, but not sufficient step for achieving the MDGs • Like all long term assessment tools, imperfect in ability to estimate long term costs, requires iteration • Requires complementary efforts in policy formulation, institutional structures, local decision making and regular review and monitoring www.unmillenniumproject.org

26. Agenda • Objectives of MDG based needs assessments • Overview of different costing methodologies • The MDG needs assessment approach: a practical illustration from the education sector • Implementing a needs assessment process www.unmillenniumproject.org

27. From the Field – Some Reflections • NDP Goals & MDGs • Programmatic Vs Sectoral Approaches • Adaptations www.unmillenniumproject.org

28. From the Field – Some Reflections • NDP Vs MDGs • NDPs tends to have more goals than those of the MDGs • Consistency of the Methodology • Unit cost approaches www.unmillenniumproject.org

29. From the Field – Some Reflections • Programmatic Vs Sectoral Approaches • NDP/S depart from PRSPs (in most part) • Mainly sectoral • Integrate! www.unmillenniumproject.org

30. From the Field – Some Reflections • Adapting to the country-specificities • Build on data or studies that already exist • Adapt the techniques • MTEF/Budgets (more on day 4) www.unmillenniumproject.org

31. From the Field – Some Reflections MDG Needs Assessments 2005 2006 www.unmillenniumproject.org

32. Process of making national development strategies MDG based • High-level political commitment • Nationally-owned • Integrated into on-going processes • MDGs as outcome indicators • Inclusive with participation from key actors • Transparent • Regularly reviewed www.unmillenniumproject.org

33. Illustrative organizational structure Office of the President/Prime Minister/ Ministry of Planning and Finance Oversight Group (led by Ministry of Finance or Planning, participation from line ministries, representation from UNCT) Thematic (PRSP) Working Groups (led by line ministries, including civil society, donors and UNCT, among others, covering different investment clusters such as rural and urban development, health, HIV/AIDS, education, gender equality, environment, science and technology) www.unmillenniumproject.org

34. Example: the Process in Ethiopia Process • Existing PRSP technical teams brought into process • UN Agencies supported analysts in each sector • Government led the process and coordinated closely with UN Country Team and the World Bank Milestones • MDG needs assessment launched in August 2004 • MDG sector needs assessment drafts ready by November 2006 • Macroeconomic framework and synthesis work with support of World Bank • Draft PASDEP ready by December 2005 www.unmillenniumproject.org