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Global Inflation-Linked Bonds

Global Inflation-Linked Bonds. 8 February 2011. Global inflation-linked bonds - status. Developments in the past three months. Accumulated returns. Returns since end-October Global inflation-linked bonds have yielded -2,0% in return

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Global Inflation-Linked Bonds

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  1. Global Inflation-Linked Bonds 8 February 2011

  2. Global inflation-linked bonds - status Developments in the past three months Accumulated returns • Returnssinceend-October • Global inflation-linkedbonds have yielded -2,0% in return • Danish governmentbonds have yielded -1,8% in return • The Federal Reserve’s decision on ”QuantitativeEasing II” sparkedrising inflation expectations • In addition, strongerdemand (partlyinfluenced by a cold start to the winther) has boostedenergyprices • Recently, turmoil in Egyptcausedoilprices to rise furtherwithDatedBrentsurpassing $100 per barrel

  3. Performance overviewGlobal Inflation-Linked Bonds

  4. Current portfolio and key figures

  5. What is an Inflation-Linked Bond? (nominal) yield = real yield + inflation Example • Buy a Finish 10-year government bond: • Yield for 10 years: 2,7% • Indirectly the buyer accept: • Real yield: 1,1% (increase in purchasing power) • Expected inflation for 10 years: 1,6%

  6. Inflation Exposure is Needed in a Well Diversified Portfolio (When both equities and bonds post negative returns)

  7. Inflation expectations have risen

  8. Inflation has surprised on the upside – especially in the UK

  9. Why are Global Inflation-Linked Bonds Attractive? • Basic component in a well diversified portfolio • Different by nature from nominal bonds and equities • Diversify equities better than nominal bonds • Inflation risk is currently underestimated in the market • Plenty of slack in the Western world, inflationary pressures building in EM… implications for commodities, end of cheap labour? • Central banks currently give inflation second priority to growth due to the global credit crisis • Political interest in inflation “on the high side” has increased with increased issuance in government bonds and growth in public debt – and increased number of technically insolvent households

  10. Inflation in a fiat money system…. Source: Thomas J. Sargent, Professor of Economics, New York University

  11. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared to be read exclusively in conjunction with the oral presentation provided by Danske Capital. Readers should not replace their own judgement with any information or opinions herein and should contact their investment advisor whenever necessary. Any information or opinions contained herein are not intended for distribution to or use by any person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be unlaw- ful and, specifically, are not intended for distribution to or use by any "US Person" within the meaning of the United States Securities Act of 1934, nor any personal customer in the United Kingdom.

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