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Initial CERP Update

Initial CERP Update. Why the Initial CERP Update?. Implementation of CERP must be based on best science and information as envisioned in the Programmatic Regulations. New and/or updated information forms the basis for updating predictive models used for CERP implementation

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Initial CERP Update

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  1. Initial CERP Update

  2. Why the Initial CERP Update? Implementation of CERP must be based on best science and information as envisioned in the Programmatic Regulations. New and/or updated information forms the basis for updating predictive models used for CERP implementation We use models, as representations of reality, to help us reduce uncertainty CERP was formulated using the SFWMM v3.5; this model has been updated with new information (topography, land use, public water supply and irrigation demands) and is now version 5.4

  3. Restudy Assumptions • CERP projects • Non-CERP assumptions • CERP Update Assumptions • CERP projects • Updated non-CERP assumptions Alternative-specific data & assumptions are fed into • SFWMM v5.4 • 1965-2000 climate • Updated topo • Calib/verification • SFWMM v3.5 • 1965-1995 climate • Topo • Calib/verification a specific model version with its version- specific data which produces a simulated Alternative Plan CERP0/1 SFWMM v5.4 D13R SFWMM v3.5 About Modeling

  4. Data and Model Updates Yellow Book Components • Updated 2050 “without project” assumptions: • Revised demands and runoff in Caloosahatchee basin through improved local basin modeling • Updated topography in EAA and remnant Everglades • Some operational changes (eg. WSE Schedule vs. Run25) • Updated Public Water Supply (PWS) pumpages in Lower East Coast • Improved 2x2 model: • Simulation period extended from 31 years to 36 years • Re-calibration of model with new data Lake Okeechobee Ft. Myers WCAs Big Cypress National Preserve Everglades National Park Biscayne Bay Florida Bay Strategy for the Initial CERP Update +

  5. What we have completed… Restudy 1995 / 2050 Conditions and CERP 2000 / 2050 Conditions Contrast the existing and future without project conditions with a 31 yr POR Starting Point: The Comprehensive Plan (D13R / SFWMM v 3.5 with NSM v 4.5 and a 31 yr POR) CERP with SFWMM v 5.4 Contrast D13R v 3.5 and CERP v 5.4 with a 31 yr POR Results posted to Website CERP0 and CERP1

  6. CERP with SFWMM v 5.4 and CERP 2000 / 2050 Conditions RET / WQT evaluate CERP compared to base conditions and a 36 yr POR RET / WQT prepare Regional Evaluation Report ICU / CPR prepares Technical Documentation Report What we are working on now…

  7. What we have found… • The RET / WQT evaluation of the CERP simulation found areas of concern • Need to refine CERP simulation to better adjust operations for new performance measures and targets • Need to create a “CERP Special Analysis Team” based on Restudy concept of AET/ADT and “power modeling” • This is NOT a reformulation of the CERP

  8. Proposed next steps… • Establish Special Analysis Team, made up of RET / WQT tri-chairs, Restudy designers and IMC modelers • Define boundaries of refinement effort • Identify specific areas for refinement team • CERP simulation is refined by designers and modelers • IMC remodels CERP simulation • Model run is reviewed by team • CERP simulation is refined and rerun (if needed) • Model review is performed by team (if needed) • CERP simulation is provided to stakeholders / public for review • RET/WQT complete regional evaluation report • ICU / CPR completes Technical Documentation Report

  9. Model Update Process Planning & Integration REFINEMENTS IN MODELS & PERFORMANCE MEASURES, RESULTS OF CONTINGENCY PLANNING Evaluation Assessment PIR PROCESS REFINED PROJECT DESIGN & OPERATION REFINED CERP DESIGN & OPERATION CERP UPDATE MODELING ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PROCESS D-13-R RECOVER MONITORING & ASSESSMENT PLAN RECOVER EVALUATION & PROJECT SUPPORT Public Review CORPS & SFWMD REVIEW & APPROVAL

  10. Questions?

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