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C HAPTER 6

C HAPTER 6. Common Stock Valuation. Chapter Sections: Security Analysis: Be Careful Out There The Dividend Discount Model The Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model The Residual Income Model The Free Cash Flow Model Price Ratio Analysis An Analysis of the Proctor & Gamble Company.

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C HAPTER 6

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  1. CHAPTER6 Common Stock Valuation Chapter Sections: Security Analysis: Be Careful Out There The Dividend Discount Model The Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model The Residual Income Model The Free Cash Flow Model Price Ratio Analysis An Analysis of the Proctor & Gamble Company “Value matters. You ignore value at your peril.” Greg Ireland, mutual fund manager with over 35 years experience

  2. Common Stock Valuation • Stock Valuation • The process by which the underlying value of a stock is established on the basis of its forecasted risk and return performance • At any given time, the price of a share of common stock depends on investors’ expectations about the future behavior of the security • A fundamental assertion of finance holds that the value of a stock is based on the present value of its future cash flows (a.k.a. earnings) The worth of a company is primarily based on the earnings the company will produce in the future. But if we knew what was going to happen in the future, it would not be called the future, would it?

  3. Common Stock Valuation (continued) • Stock Valuation • “The most fundamental influence on stock prices is the level and duration of the future growth of earnings and dividends. [However,] future earnings growth is not easily estimated, even by market professionals.” – Burton Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street So, if someone were to ask you, “What is the most important factor in determining the future value of a company?” In a few words, you could say, “FUTURE EARNINGS!” (or FUTURE DIVIDENDS) But do any of us know what is going to happen in the future? “NO!” So is valuing stock going to be easy? “NO!”

  4. Security Analysis • Security Analysis • The process of gathering and organizing information and then using it to determine the value of a share of common stock • Intrinsic Value • The underlying or inherent value of a stock, as determined through security analysis The question is, “What security analysis methods or measures does one use to determine the intrinsic value of a company?” Future dividends? Potential capital appreciation? Price/earnings ratio? Financial ratios? Past price performance? Amount of risk? Value is in the eye of the beholder.

  5. Fundamental Analysis • Fundamental Analysis • Examination of a firm’s accounting statements and other financial and economic information to assess the economic value of a company’s stock • Examples of some of the Fundamentals: • The competitive position of the company • Growth prospects for company and its market • Profit margins and company earnings • What assets are available • The company’s capital structure • How much debt, how much equity Simply put, the value of a stock is influenced by the performance of the company that issued the stock.

  6. Financial Ratio Analysis • Financial Ratio Analysis • One method of security analysis involves looking at certain financial ratio measures • Financial ratios give us a quick and easy method for comparing one company to other companies within their industry or the stock market as a whole • The problem with financial ratios is that there is no single financial ratio that can adequately sum up or summarize the overall general state of affairs, situation, predicament, etc., that a company finds itself in The first financial ratios we will investigate will be price ratios. We will look at others later on.

  7. Price-to-Earnings Ratio • Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Review) • a.k.a. Price-earnings Ratio, P/E Ratio, P/E, PE • Current Price divided by Earnings per Share • Examples: • AT&T (T),Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) P/E = 26.3 P/E = 83.0 P/E = 10.8 P/E = 14.4 As of 1 Mar 2019 Current Market Price P/E Ratio = –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Earnings per Share (EPS) The most popular stock market statistic! Historically, P/E ratios were in the 5 to 12 range for mature companies and 14 to 20 range for growing companies. Greater than 20 was unusual. In the late 1990’s, it was commonplace. Now, P/E ratios are all over the map but still very high by historical standards. Some are astronomical. (Check out Amazon & Netflix.)

  8. Price-to-Earnings Ratio (continued) • Historically, • A company’s P/E Ratio was supposed to match its growth rate. If a company were growing at 20% per year, then a P/E of 20 was justified. During the Internet bubble, many companies had P/E ratios in the hundreds • eBay’s P/E was 10,000 for a time during the mania! • At that P/E, it would take eBay 10,000 years to earn its price • “Growth” stocks typically have high-P/E Ratios • “Value” stocks typically have low-P/E Ratios • But remember our discussion of “growth” vs “value” • A “value” stock might not necessarily be a good value The P/E Ratio tells you how long it will take in years (assuming no changes in earnings) for the company to earn back its price. A P/E of 3 will take three years. A P/E of 20 will take twenty years.

  9. Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio • Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio • Current price divided by current cash flow per share • Cash flow often differs from earnings per share • For several reasons – one major reason is… • Depreciation is not an actual cash expenditure • But there are many reasons cash flow & earnings differ • “Good quality” versus “poor quality” earnings Current Price Price-Cash Flow Ratio = –––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Cash Flow per Share During the Internet mania, many companies were reporting record earnings. At the same time, their cash flow was negative. Huh? How could that be? Example: Lucent Technologies

  10. Price-to-Sales Ratio • Price-to-Sales Ratio • Current price divided by annual sales per share • Historically, a higher Price-to-Sales Ratio suggested a higher sales growth • And a lower Price-to-Sales Ratio suggested a lower sales growth Current Price Price-to-Sales Ratio = ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Annual Sales per Share During the Internet mania, many analysts used Price-to-Sales instead of Price-to-Earnings since most all of the new companies never generated any earnings!

  11. Price-to-Book Ratio • Price-to-Book Ratio • Current price divided by book value • Historically, if the Price-to-Book Ratio was greater than 1.0, then shareholders believed that the firm was creating value above and beyond the physical assets of the corporation Current Price Price-to-Book Ratio = ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Book Value per Share The Book Value of a stock is the value of the assets the company possesses. Historically, it was fairly close to the price of the stock. Today, it is rarely close to the price of the stock.

  12. Applications of Price Ratio Analysis • To predict future stock price using price ratios, • Multiply a historical price ratio by the expected future value price-ratio denominator (“What? Huh?”) • Price-to-Earnings Per Share Example • Page 201, 7th Edition: Intel Corp (INTC) – Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Analysis Mid-2012 stock price $26.98 Mid-2012 EPS $2.31 5-year average P/E ratio 17.10 P/E EPS growth rate 7.6% Expected stock price = historical P/E ratio  projected EPS* $42.50 = 17.10  $2.31  (1 + 0.076) *projected EPS = current EPS * (100% + expected EPS growth rate)

  13. Applications of Price Ratio Analysis (continued) • Applications of Price Ratio Analysis (continued) • Price-to-Cash Flow Per Share Example • Page 201, 7th Edition: Intel Corp (INTC) – Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF) Analysis Mid-2012 stock price $26.98 Mid-2012 CFPS $3.65 5-year average P/CF ratio 8.00 P/CF Cash Flow Per Share growth rate 7.0% Expected stock price = historical P/CF ratio  projected CFPS* $31.24 = 8.00  $3.65  (1 + 0.070) *projected CFPS = current CFPS * (100% + expected CFPS growth rate) This is far from the Price-to-Earnings estimate

  14. Applications of Price Ratio Analysis (continued) • Applications of Price Ratio Analysis (continued) • Price-to-Sales per Share Example • Page 201, 7th Edition: Intel Corp (INTC) – Price-to-Sales (P/S) Analysis Mid-2012 stock price $26.98 Mid-2012 SPS $9.99 5-year average P/S ratio 3.00 P/S Sales Per Share growth rate 4.5% Expected stock price = historical P/S ratio  projected SPS* $31.32 = 3.00  $9.99  (1 + 0.045) *projected SPS = current SPS * (100% + expected SPS growth rate) Very close to the Price-to-Cash-Flow prediction

  15. Reality Check! • Can we reasonably assume that the formulas on the previous slides will give us realistic figures? • For many companies, yes • For many companies, no • But there are countless other factors at work • It is like trying to predict the weather – only worse! The major assumption of these models is that the price multiples will remain constant. However, we are using averages without taking into account the variances and standard deviations of the averages. (Remember them?) Is it reasonable to expect predictions from these models to be accurate if the variances of the averages are large?

  16. Reality Check! (continued) • For the record, the price of Intel one year later in mid-2013 was around $24 • Not so good, eh? Check out the previous editions • 3rd edition predictions: $19.61, $27.54, and $31.63 • The actual price one year later was $33.50 • 4th edition predictions: $50.84, $43.49, and $40.92 • The actual price one year later was $17.50 • 5th edition predictions: $25.47, $25.36, and $29.63 • The actual price one year later was $20.00 • 6th edition predictions: $20.92, $20.29, and $22.71 • The actual price one year later was $20.50 The only predictions that were anywhere close to the actual prices one year later were from the 6th edition. Does not give you much confidence in the price models, huh? Take heart, the predictions for Disney from the book were much closer to the actual prices. The moral?

  17. Dividend Discount Models • Shares of stock are valued on the basis of the present value of the future dividend streams the stock is projected to produce • a.k.a. DDMs, Dividend Valuation Models (DVMs), Discounted Cash Flows Models • Recall: The value of a stock is based on the present value of its future cash flows • Therefore, dividend discount models should be extremely popular, right? During the 1990’s, investors who adhered to these types of models were considered old fashioned and outdated. But those investors weathered the 2000-2002 downturn very well. Dividends have become important again. “Dividends don’t lie.” Music: India from Bensound.com

  18. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Dividend Discount Model (Purest incarnation) • Value of stock = present value of all expected future dividend payments • Example 6.1: Page 181, 7th edition • Three annual dividends of $100 per share • Required rate of return = 15% • ($100/1.15)+($100/1.152)+($100/1.153) = $228.32 But how many companies pay three annual dividends and then go out of business?! Plus, we keep using this term “present value.” What does present value mean anyway?

  19. What is “Present Value?” • Present Value • The value today of a lump sum (or series of payments) to be received at some future date • It is the opposite of future value! (a.k.a. the inverse) • Did you work on the optional future value calculations? • Future value of $10,000 in 10 years at 8% • $10,000 * 2.1589 = $21,589 (1 + 8%) 10 years • Present value of $21,589 in 10 years at 8% • $21,589 * 0.4632 = $10,000 1 1 $10,000 * 2.1589 = $21,589 (1 + 8%) 10 years Present value and future value are just two sides of the same coin. In finance, present value tells us what the future value is worth now.

  20. Present Value & DDM (continued) • Did the formula for the DDM scare you? • This formula has the present value calc built into it • We mortals simply use the Present Value tables • Just as we used the Future Value tables in Chapter 1 • The formula becomes: Value = Dividend1*PVM1 + Dividend2*PVM2 + Dividend3*PVM3 + etc PVM1 is the present value multiplier for the rate of growth for one year, PVM2 is the multiplier for two years, etc.

  21. Present Value & DDM (continued) • Let’s do the same example over again • Using the Present Value Multipliers from the Present Value Table on the class web site • http://wonderprofessor.com/123s19/Chap06/Chap06_PresentValueTable.pdf • Three annual dividends of $100 per share • Required rate of return = 15% Value = ($100*0.870) + ($100*0.756) + ($100*0.658) = $87.00 + $75.60 + $65.80 = $228.40  $228.32 (from slide 18) What is the present value of the future stream of dividends? At 15%, $100 in 1 year is worth $87, in 2 years $75.60, 3 years $65.80. The sum of the present values of the future dividend cash flows equals our perceived value of the stock.

  22. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Zero Growth Model (Not covered in our book) • Assume dividends will continue at a fixed rate indefinitely into the future • Value of stock = ─────────────── • Example: • Annual dividend = $3.00 per share • Required rate of return = 6% • $3.00 / 6% = $50.00 per share Annual dividends Required rate of return Does the Zero Growth Model look familiar? It is simply another way to view Dividend Yield.

  23. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Zero Growth Model (Not covered in our book) • Assume dividends will continue at a fixed rate indefinitely into the future • Value of stock = ─────────────── • Dividend Yield = ─────────────── Annual dividends Required rate of return Annual dividends Market price of stock Investors who emphasize the Zero Growth Model are valuing the stock almost exclusively for its dividend yield.

  24. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Zero Growth Model (Real-life Example) • Consolidated Edison – ED (Utility income stock) • Current market price is $82.66 per share (1 Mar 2019) • Currently paying $2.96 per year in annual dividends • The question is, “What is our required rate of return?” • Let’s first use 8% • Value = $2.96 / 8% = $37.00 • The stock is overpriced if our required rate of return is 8% • What about 5%? • Value = $2.96 / 5% = $59.20 • The stock is still too expensive if our required return is 5% With a market price of $82.66, the stock is yielding 3.59%. The Zero Growth Model works well for stable, income-producing stocks.

  25. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Constant Perpetual Growth Model • Assume dividends will continue to grow at a specified rate perpetually into the future • Value of stock = ─────────────────── • Example 6.3: Page 182, 6th edition • Annual dividend = $10 per share (Next year’s=$10.50) • Annual dividend growth rate = 5% per year • Required rate of return = 15% • ($10 * 1.05) / (15% - 5%) = $10.50 / 10% = $105 • The stock should be worth $105 per share Annual dividends * (1+Constant growth rate) Required rate of return – Constant growth rate Good for companies with consistent dividend growth.

  26. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Constant Perpetual Growth Model (Real-life Example) • 3M (MMM, blue chip specialty, formerly Minnesota Mining and Materials) • Current market price is $207.49 (1 Mar 2019) • Currently paying $5.76 annual dividends • Assume dividends growing around 8% per year • Our required rate of return is 13% • ($5.76 * 1.08) / (13% - 8%) = $6.2208 / 5%  $124.42 • Not a great buy if we require 13%, huh? • What if our required rate of return were only 10%? • ($5.76 * 1.08) / (10% - 8%) = $6.2208 / 2%  $311.04 • What a deal! • Note: The model is very sensitive to our choice of our required rate of return Do you think 3M is a good value? (Hint: How often do you use Scotch Tape or Post-It Notes?)

  27. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Constant Perpetual Growth Model (Real-life Example) • McDonald’s (MCD, blue chip) • Current market price is $185.05 (1 Mar 2019) • Currently paying $4.64 annual dividends • Assume dividends growing around 8% per year • Our required rate of return is 13% • ($4.64 * 1.08) / (13% - 8%) = $5.0122 / 5%  $100.22 • McDonald’s doesn’t quite measure up to our 13% rate • What if our required rate of return were only 10%? • ($4.64 * 1.08) / (10% - 8%) = $5.0122 / 2%  $250.56 • The model says MCD is undervalued if we only require 10% Ya’ know, you can make a whole lot o’ money selling people fat, sugar, and salt.

  28. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Constant Perpetual Growth Model (Real-life Example) • Target (TGT, domestic large cap retailer) • Current market price is $72.94 (1 Mar 2019) • Currently paying $2.56 annual dividends • Assume dividends growing around 8% per year • Our required rate of return is 13% • ($2.56 * 1.08) / (13% - 8%) = $2.7648 / 5%  $55.30 • So much for being bombarded by the color red! • What if our required rate of return were only 10%? • ($2.56 * 1.08) / (10% - 8%) = $2.7648 / 2%  $138.24 • Maybe we ought to spend more time researching TGT … Yeah, I know. Target does not have a reputation for being the most elegant store in the neighborhood. But it is pretty darned profitable!

  29. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Constant Perpetual Growth Model (Real-life Example) • Pfizer (PFE, blue chip pharmaceutical) • Current market price is $43.36 (1 Mar 2019) • Currently paying $1.44 annual dividends • Assume dividends also growing around 8% per year • What if our required rate of return is 13% • ($1.44 * 1.08) / (13% - 8%) = $1.5552 / 5%  $31.10 • Ah, Pfizer does not look so good if we want 13% • How about 10%? • ($1.44 * 1.08) / (10% - 8%) = $1.5552 / 2%  $77.76 • If we are happy with 10%, Pfizer appears to be a great deal Do people stop taking their medications just because the economy is in recession?

  30. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Constant Perpetual Growth Model (Real-life Example) • Altria (MO, blue chip tobacco) • Current market price is $52.75 (1 Mar 2019) • Currently paying $3.20 annual dividends • Assume dividends also growing around 8% per year • Same required rate of return of 13% • ($3.20 * 1.08) / (13% - 8%) = $3.456 / 5%  $69.12 • Wow! Our model says that Altria is worth $69.12 if we expect 13%. What a buy! • If you conveniently ignore the fact that tobacco kills 400,000 Americans each year Would you buy Altria? (Hint: Who do you think will win big when marijuana becomes legal, eh?) Hey!

  31. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Constant Perpetual Growth Model (continued) • The Constant Perpetual Growth Model is very sensitive to the assumed growth rate of dividends • The recent dividend growth rates of 3M, McDonald’s, Target, Pfizer, and Altria are all 8% or higher • McDonald’s 8.2%, Pfizer 8.5%, Altria 12%, 3M 12.9%, Target 13.8%! • But the model does not work if the required rate of return is equal to or less than the dividend growth rate (You get division by zero or negative prices) • Therefore, we should actually raise our expected rates of returns for all of these companies! • All are actually better buys than what the model is telling us for our 10% or 13% rates of return Note: These are blue chip companies with long histories of rising dividends. But they are not alone. Check out ExxonMobil, Proctor & Gamble, United Technologies, Abbott Labs, Abbvie, Johnson Controls, Microsoft, and Ford.

  32. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Constant Growth Model • Assume dividends will continue to grow at a specified rate for a specified number of years • This model takes the Constant Perpetual Growth Model one step further, adding a term to account for constant growth for a number of years • Just as the Constant Perpetual Growth Model evolved from the Zero Growth Model, adding an additional term to account for the constant growth of dividends ¡Aye, Paquito! Do we have to know how to do this?! (No.) Added term to account for growth for a number of years Constant Perpetual Growth Model

  33. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model • a.k.a. Variable Growth Model • Assume dividends will continue to grow at a specified rate into the future (presumably the fast-growth stage) and then grow at a second (presumably slower growth rate once the company matures) Many decades ago, Benjamin Graham warned against using overly sophisticated mathematical models to value stocks. This model may look very impressive, especially to those who love math, but it has some serious problems. It is very difficult to accurately predict future dividend growth during the initial fast growth stage of a stock. Usually companies do not pay significant dividends while they are growing quickly.

  34. Dividend Discount Models (continued) • Observations of the Dividend Discount Models • How do you use them for a company that isn’t paying any dividends? • The simple answer is, “You can’t!” • Constant perpetual growth is usually an unrealistic assumption (except for a very small number of companies) • Dividend growth rates are very difficult to estimate • With large cap, well-established companies, historical growth rates may be useful • But with fast growing companies in new industries, it is almost impossible The problems of DDMs notwithstanding, repeat after me: “The value of a stock is based on the present value of its future cash flows.”

  35. Discounted Cash Flow Model • Uses present value of expected dividends and the present value of the expected future price to value a share of stock • Value of stock = present value of future dividends + present value of the price of stock when we plan to sell • We use the present value multipliers from the table • Not covered specifically in our text • But it is really just the pure form of the DDM with the present value of the expected price of the stock as our final cash inflow • (P.S. It is my favorite Dividend Discount Model) As with the other DDMs, this model is very sensitive to our estimates and our choice of required rate of return and, hence, can be very far off the mark. Music: Raga Music Ceremony, Samuel Corwin, from freemusciarchive.org

  36. Discounted Cash Flow Model (continued) • Example 1: • Assume it is January 1, 2019. Pretzels Unlimited is currently selling for $22 per share and will pay $2.00 per share in dividends in 2019. PU expects to increase their dividends to $2.20 in 2020, $2.30 in 2021, and $2.30 in 2022. We will be selling the stock at the end of 2022 and we expect the price to be $27 per share at that time. Our required rate of return is 12%. • Value of stock = present value of future dividends + present value of price of stock when you plan to sell Value = ($2.00*0.893)+(2.20*0.797)+(2.30*0.712)+(2.30*0.636) + ($27.00*0.636) = = [ $1.786 + $1.7534 + $1.6376 + $1.4628 ] + $17.172 = = $6.6398 + $17.172 = $23.8118  $23.81 If our required rate of return is 12%, this is a pretty good stock to buy.

  37. Discounted Cash Flow Model (continued) • Example 1: • Pretzels Unlimited in Table Format Here is the problem in spreadsheet format. I think it is much easier to comprehend and calculate in this format, yes?

  38. Discounted Cash Flow Model (continued) • Example 1 (Simplified): • Pretzels Unlimited in a More Simplified Table Format Adding the dividend and the stock price in the last year saves us a couple of manual calculations but more importantly, it also allows us to use a special spreadsheet function to calculate …

  39. Discounted Cash Flow Model (continued) • Internal Rate of Return (a.k.a. IRR) • The Internal Rate of Return is a measure of what rate of return we expect to get from a series of cash flows, including positive and negative flows • Someday, when you take an upper-level or graduate finance or investment class, you will learn how to manually compute Internal Rate of Return • Hopefully, you will not have a sadistic professor who will require you to calculate it manually more than once! • We are simply going to enter the numbers into a spreadsheet formula and press , okay? In other words, we required a 12% rate of return from Pretzels Unlimited, but what do our numbers tell us will be our expected rate of return?

  40. Discounted Cash Flow Model (continued) • Internal Rate of Return (a.k.a. IRR), continued • The spreadsheet formula is: • =IRR(values,approximate-rate-of-return) where • values is the block of cells containing the cash flows, both positive and negative, and • approximate-rate-of-return is our guess as to what the Internal Rate of Return will be Let’s take a look at the example spreadsheet on the class web page …

  41. Discounted Cash Flow Model (continued) • Example 2: • Genes ’R’ Us (symbol GRUS) is currently selling for $21 per share. It pays no dividend. We believe that GRUS will sell for around $50 per share in five years. Our required rate of return is 13%. How can we determine if this is a good investment? • With no dividends, which model can we use? • The Discounted Cash Flow Model can still be used! • Value of stock = present value of future dividends + present value of price of stock when you plan to sell Value = $0.00 (from dividends) + ($50.00*0.543) = $27.13 Unlike the other DDM’s, the Discounted Cash Flow Model can still be used if there are no dividends. Very cool!

  42. Other Valuation Models • Residual Income Model • Similar to the Constant Perpetual Growth Model but instead uses earnings in place of dividends • Allows us to value a company that is not paying dividends • Free Cash Flow Model • Takes the Residual Income Model one step further by taking into account non-cash expense items such as depreciation We will skip these for now and maybe come back to them later. I think you have enough on your plate for now, yes?

  43. Sources of Information • Okay, Paiano, this is all great, but just where are we supposed to get all this historical information, anyway? And just who decides what next year’s earnings per share, sales per share, cash flow per share, dividends per share, etc., etc., etc. are going to be, let alone the expected price of a stock in 3 to 5 years?! • Before the Internet (BI?), this information was not readily available • Normally, you would ask your broker for it • Or you would use one of the securities industry’s trusted information sources • Traditionally, the most respected source was …

  44. The Value Line • Still one of the most respected and trusted sources of data and analysis • Traditionally, it was often the only source many investors used for data and analysis • Along with the company’s materials • Expensive ($598 per year, www.valueline.com), but can be obtained for free at various libraries (See class web site) I am a big fan of Value Line, especially their Timeliness and Safety indicators. One study (which ignored transaction costs and tax consequences) only used their Timeliness indicator. It showed how you would have beaten the market handsomely over a twenty year period by just buying and selling stocks as they received and lost their #1 Timeliness designation.

  45. The Value Line (continued) • Can you find… • The Value Line indicators? • The future price projections? • The historical data? • The cash assets, receivables, inventory, and other assets? • The description and analysis of the business? • The historical annual rates? • The insider and institutional buying & selling? • The amount of debt and number of shares outstanding? • The company’s financial strength, stability, price growth, and earnings predictability ratings? Value Line Example: McGraw-Hill, Page 206 (6th edition)

  46. The Value Line (continued)

  47. The Value Line (continued)

  48. The Value Line (continued) • Let’s put The Value Line to the test • In late 2009, the price of McGraw-Hill was $28.73 • Their price prediction for early 2013 was in the range from around $48 to $68 • On February 15th, 2013, McGraw-Hill’s price closed at $44.95 • Not too bad, eh? Actually, pretty darned good! • When they made this prediction at the end of 2009, the stock market had rallied from the depths of the 2008/2009 crisis but many people were still predicting the end of the world • By the way, some of them are still predicting the end of the world Now let’s look at The Value Line prediction for McGraw-Hill from the 4th edition

  49. The Value Line (continued)

  50. The Value Line (continued)

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