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Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys

Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys. Kevin Morgan School of City and Regional Planning Cardiff University. Overview. Basic socio-economic trends Threats and opportunities Strategies: old v new Scenarios: awful v hopeful. Basic socio-economic trends.

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Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys

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  1. Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys Kevin Morgan School of City and Regional Planning Cardiff University

  2. Overview • Basic socio-economic trends • Threats and opportunities • Strategies: old v new • Scenarios: awful v hopeful

  3. Basic socio-economic trends • Socio-economic trends show Valleys in relative decline • Valleys need to be conceived as part of a City-Region, but not a CITY-region • The trends suggest the following: • The city has out-performed the Valleys • The city needs the Valleys and vice versa • The city cannot save the Valleys • The city cannot thrive if the Valleys decline

  4. Total employment change forUK city-regions

  5. Total employment change for UK city-regions

  6. Regional hinterland share of city-region employment growth

  7. Population change for selected areas (%)

  8. Commuting flows into Cardiff

  9. Commuting flows out of Cardiff

  10. Hidden unemployment?

  11. Threats and opportunities • Economic threats include: • high levels of economic inactivity • very poor skill sets • very poor connectivity • very poor housing choice • Social/cultural threats include: • long term limiting illness • culture of low aspirations • getting out/getting on

  12. Opportunities • Major opportunities include: • low cost housing close to city/nature • outstanding natural environment • surprisingly resilient stock of social capital • lack of civil, political & religious strife

  13. Strategies: Old problems • Absurd polarisation of state/market – public versus private conflict very acute in Wales • Confusion of means/ends – partnership (a means to an end) has been elevated into an end in itself • Collective failure – the key institutions in Wales (central and local government, business, universities etc) have failed the Valleys • Devolution dividends – limited to date by cosy and undemanding partnership between WAG and local government (symbolised by saga of performance improvement grant, paid when performance was bad)

  14. Strategies: New opportunities • More innovative strategies needed and WHQS will test our capacity to innovate • Registered Social Landlords – these are local regeneration companies in disguise • Success will depend upon: • local management skills • deploying the power of purchase • crafting new supply chains • embedding the local pound to plug the leaky bucket

  15. Scenario 1: The awful future

  16. Scenario 1: Age group projections

  17. Scenario 2: The hopeful future

  18. Scenarios: awful v hopeful

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