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Addressing Demographic Challenges for Portugal's Development

Discussing demographic decline in Portugal and recommendations for policies to address it, looking into economic catching up and policies for low-density areas.

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Addressing Demographic Challenges for Portugal's Development

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  1. Demographic challenges in Europe at different scales-the case of PortugalEduardo Anselmo de Castro Session workshop Shrinkingregions – how to fosterdevelopment in depopulatedareas European Week of Regions and Cities 8 October2019 Brussels

  2. EUROPEAN OVERVIEW EU28 – Evolution 2020-2040 • Central scenarioof United Nationsstatistics: • Populationwilldecrease 2% • Working age populationwilldecrease 11% (0.6% per year) • Possibledecrease in averageworking time (0.65 per year) • Total decreaseofworkforcesupply (1.25% per year) • Total decreaseofworkforcesupply per inhabitant (1.15% per year)

  3. EUROPEAN OVERVIEW Annual average growth of apparent labour productivity in some west countries 1960-2011

  4. EUROPEAN OVERVIEW EU28 – Evolution 2020-2040

  5. REGIONAL OVERVIEW Factor analysis at NUTS III level

  6. The Europe of demographic decline

  7. The Europe of lagging economy

  8. The peripheral and low density Europe

  9. The case of Portugal Demographic and economic perspectives - 2040 Null net migrationscenario Net migrationrequired per yearnull (bydefinition) Moderatescenario Net migrationrequired per year: 50 000 Optimisticscenario ?? Net migrationrequired per year: 85 000

  10. Peripheral Portugal Variationof Total population 2040 – moderatescenario

  11. VariationofYoungpopulation2040– moderatescenario

  12. VariationofElderlypopulation2040 – moderatescenario

  13. Variationof GDP 2040 – moderatescenario

  14. POPULAtiondensity2010/2040 – moderatescenario

  15. Conclusions Regional policies to adress 3 mainproblems (territorial cohesion): • Stop demographic decline • Economiccatchingup • Policies for lowdensityareas

  16. Regional policies 1. Stop demographicdecline • Comprehensive policies • Positive net migration • Investment • Qualityoflife • Tayloredpolicies • Germany/Portugal • A commonproblem • Differentcontexts • Different policies

  17. Regional policies 2. Economiccatchingup • Technologychange • Changes in productionorganization • Exploitationofendogenousresources New opportunities for developingregions

  18. Regional policies 3. Policies for low density areas • Network ofaveragesizecities • Teleworking • Teleservices • New lifestyles • Extensiveproductionofenergy

  19. Conclusions More notes about the border region Portugal-Spain • The problem is common to both countries • It requires common policies • In the Iberian Summit in Valladolid (nov-2018) it was signed an agreement to develop common policies

  20. More notes about the border region Portugal-Spain • It is necessary to develop integrated policies addressing 3 dimensions: • Investment • Quality of life • Attraction of in-migration Basic principles • Without workforce supply firms will not invest • Without firms investment net migrations will be negative • Without a good supply of services people will leave • Natality policies will take more than 20 years to have effect Demography Economy Regional attractiveness

  21. More notes about the border region Portugal-Spain • How to promote the border? • International urban centers – in the few possibilities • Axes of development along motorways connecting both countries • Removing context costs • Legislation • Transportation • Public services • Development projects astride the border • With few exceptions, Spanish-Portuguese border is an empty space • Historically: • Portugal is facing Atlantic • Spain is facing the Europe and Mediterranean • The border is a marginal thing – in contrast with most cases in Europe

  22. More notes about the border region Portugal-Spain Recent examples in the Portuguese case • Specific fiscal incentives – firms and individuals • Promotion of regional high-learning institutions • New agro/forest/tourism models • Plans to develop pilot projects: • The village of the future • Promoting new centralities

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