BRAC ON THE HORIZON

1. BRAC ON THE HORIZON Sheila Clarke McCready DEFCON National Conference February 11, 2012

2. BRAC ON THE HORIZON • President Obama will propose significant force structure reductions as part of the Fiscal Year 2013 (FY 13) Department of Defense (DOD) budget. • DOD Secretary Panetta announced the Administration will request corresponding reductions in military facility infrastructure through use of Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC). • DOD officials indicate the FY 13 DOD budget will request two rounds of BRAC, presumably in FY 13 and FY 15.

3. BRAC: DOD Leaders Speak • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey: • “We’ve got to make it clear, if you withhold my ability to balance this thing, you could create some problems you don’t want to face downstream.” • “We’re going to need to get our infrastructure under control.” • “If we’re adjusting the size of the force, we think we should ask Congress for a BRAC.” • “By the way, I didn’t pass the Budget Control Act,” he said. “I didn’t say, ‘Hey how about hitting me with a bill for $500 billion?’ ” • Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta: • "We cannot afford to sustain infrastructure that is excess to our needs in this budget environment.“ • “I’ve been through BRAC. I know its weaknesses and its failings. … But I have to tell you there is — there is no more effective process to make it happen than using the BRAC process.” • “Make no mistake: The savings that we are proposing will impact on all 50 states and many districts, congressional districts, across America.”

4. BRAC: Military Services Speak – Or Not • Chief of Staff of the Army, General Raymond Odierno: • “In the continental United States and Alaska and Hawaii, you might see a reduction in the installations. But I don’t think that you’ll see a big installation being asked to close. … We think we have the right footprint,” • Chief of Staff of the Air Force, Gen. Norton A. Schwartz: • “Since 2005 our inventory of aircraft, for example, has declined in the neighborhood of 500 aircraft. And so the presumption is — I think it’s a fair presumption — that there’s yet more excess infrastructure.” He feared the Air Force could be hit hard by a new BRAC despite its plans to reduce its force on a much smaller scale. • Chief of Naval Operations, Jonathan Greenert: Silence • The Navy is preparing a force structure study over the next several months that will be based on the new strategic guidance the Pentagon released. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert has a strategic view now from the commander in chief. He’s got a budget that is coming from the Congress. Okay, let’s figure out what kind of Navy matches those two together. • Commandant of the Marine Corps: Silence

5. BRAC: Congress’ Mixed Reaction • Chairman McKeon, House Armed Services Committee, “Kill it!” BUT he also said, “I’m not saying we don’t have excess properties and things we could do away with.” • Ranking Member Smith, House Armed Services Committee, “without question we’re going to have to do base realignment.” • Chairman Levin, Senate Armed Services Committee, “I have been a strong supporter of BRACs in the past. But I’m not able to support BRAC domestically until we reduce bases in particular in Europe.” • South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham, a Senate Armed Services panel veteran, says that lawmakers can’t call for overhauling the military while also opposing base closures. “We can’t have it both ways.” • Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad of North Dakota, “BRAC is a painful process with questionable cost savings.”

6. BRAC: AFGE Responds • BRAC is premature – need to first know the full impact of sequestration or increased revenue for DOD. • Must close overseas bases first. • Avoid mistakes of the past – huge upfront costs with savings that may never materialize. • Need short and long term savings to justify. • Do not selectively predetermine BRAC sites by “starvation” and arbitrary civilian downsizing to reduce military value. • Fight measures to reduce retirement benefits, actions which create a double hardship for those forced to retire early.

7. BRAC: History • The last round of base closures in 2005 affected 800 military sites and cost $35 billion through fiscal 2011 while yielding only $15.4 billion in savings, according to Defense Department figures provided to Congress last year. • By comparison, during the four earlier BRAC rounds — in 1988, 1991, 1993 and 1995 -- the Defense Department cut its infrastructure by about 20 percent, yielding a net savings of $29 billion through fiscal 2003, with rough expectations at the time to save another $7 billion annually, according to a May 2005 Government Accountability Office report. By 1998, the cumulative savings generated by those rounds surpassed the costs.

8. BRAC: Situational Awareness- $ • After a decade of war, DOD faces inevitable downsizing as troops are removed from Iraq and Afghanistan. • The President has called for a 76% reduction in overseas contingency funding over the next 7 years. • Additionally, Congress passed and the President signed the Budget Control Act, mandating $487 Billion in reductions in defense spending over a 10 year period. • DOD is cutting $259 Billion over the next 5 years. • Failure to reach an agreement on the long term budget puts DOD at risk for another $500 Billion reduction over the next 10 years as part of the Sequester process.

9. BRAC: Situational Awareness - Sequestration • Secretary Panetta: “ My hope is that when members understand the sacrifice involved in reducing the defense budget by half a trillion dollars, it will convince Congress to avoid sequestration, a further round of cuts that would inflict severe damage to our national defense for generations.” • Democrats want to include higher taxes. • Republicans want entitlement reforms and say higher taxes should be off the table. • President has said he would veto any attempt to get rid of the automatic cuts which are set to kick in as a part of the sequester proposition unless full alternative savings, including revenue increases, are found.

10. BRAC: Situational Awareness-Force Structure • Reduce Army end strength by 72,000, at least 8 and up to 13 combat brigades. Focus will be on light and flexible. • Cut the Marine Corps by 20,000. • Reduce the Air Force by 10,000 personnel across the Total Force—the active duty component, Air National Guard, Air Force Reserve, and USAF civilian cadre. • Disestablish 6 (10% of the 60) Air Force tactical-air fighter squadrons and 1 training squadron. • Retire 27 C-5s and 65 C-130s. • Divest 38 C-27s. • Retire 7 Navy Cruisers. • Retire 2 Amphibious Ships. • Delay the Joint Strike Fighter. • Cancel Humvee Recapitalization Effort.

11. BRAC: Strengthen Your Base-Protect Your Job • Strengthen the Military Value and Political Position of Your Military Facility. • BRAC is often political at every stage of the process, beginning with the development of the initial list of bases for closure proposed by the military services and ending with the vote of the BRAC Commission. • There are factual, data driven components that are considered with significant weight when determining military value. • Historically, certain factors are considered: cost, efficiency, military necessity based on mission, and unique capabilities. • Other intangibles, such as quality of life and work environment, are always considered. • AFGE members should unite to address these factors systematically.

12. BRAC: Steps You Can Take • Energize and Organize Elected Officials • Partner with Your Local Chamber of Commerce and Prominent Civic Organizations • Work with Management • Maximize Your Strengths and Minimize Your Weaknesses • Coordinate with your NVPs and National Office • Try your best not to compete with AFGE represented bases.

13. BRAC: It’s Political - Energize Your Elected Officials • Local, Regional, State, and Federal Officials are all important components of the campaign to strengthen and save your base. • Members of the US House of Representatives and US Senate • Interface with DOD about workload, rates, military value • Develop relationships with key decision makers • Impact force structure, funding and policy • Governors, State Representatives and State Senators • Generate statewide support for your facility • Provide military incentive funding • County Officials, Mayors and City Councils • Host community events • Pass resolutions of support • Serve as a gateway to higher levels of government

14. BRAC: COLLABORATE – PARTNER WITH CHAMBER OF COMMERCE & CIVIC GROUPS • Get the community involved in promoting your base! • Initiate a unified grassroots campaign to protect the local facility (and community) from downsizings or BRAC. • Inform all about adverse events such as personnel reductions or force structure changes. • Develop promotional materials to brief Pentagon, White House, Congressional and eventually BRAC leaders. • Identify senior retired military and civilian leaders to network on behalf of your facility. • Seek support from local colleges and universities. • Identify allies from past BRAC rounds. • Encourage and generate positive press.

15. BRAC: A House Divided Will Not Stand – Work with Management • A reputation for poor labor-management relations is one of the fastest ways to have your facility targeted for closure. • Both management and labor must work together to overcome difficulties for the sake of the workforce and the community. (This is not a one-sided recommendation.) • Now is the time to build your management relationships with both senior career and military leadership.

16. BRAC: Put Your Best Foot Forward - Maximize Your Strengths & Minimize Your Weaknesses • Encourage quality work and efficiency – union members’ jobs may depend on the reputation of their work.  • As much as it is up to you, increase your competitive edge and reduce your rates. • Know your competitors both in industry and the military and do a better job than they do.  • Educate AFGE district personnel of the importance of your facility and the threat of BRAC.  • Do your part as individuals to save your base.

17. BRAC ON THE HORIZON: Influencing the Outcome • Another BRAC round is probable in the foreseeable future. • At a minimum, major reductions in civilian personnel at DOD facilities are forecast.  • AFGE locals can take positive action now to minimize the impact by strategically addressing specific elements. • The greatest probability of success in reducing civilian job losses are actions taken in advance of any adverse decision.  • Historically, military facilities enjoying the greatest across-the-board unity are the ones most likely to survive BRAC. • Political activism and early involvement by base employees have been critical elements of success.  • AFGE locals can and should take steps NOW to reinforce their facilities and save jobs.