Azmat Hayat Khan

1. EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT AzmatHayat Khan Director Pakistan Meteorological Department http://www.pakmet.com.pk

2. PMD Seismology Meteorology Hydrology

3. PMD A KEY OBJECTIVE • Early Warnings of hazards due to Meteorological, Hydrological & Geophysical Phenomena such as Tropical Cyclones, Heavy Rains, Floods & Tsunamies etc.

4. The Early Warning PMD The provision of timely & effective information through identified institutions, that demands individuals exposed to hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response

5. Components of Early Warning System PMD • Risk Knowledge • Monitoring & Warning Service • Tools & Technologies for Monitoring • Capacity to analyze info. • Capacity for reliable prediction • Dissemination & Communication • Response Capacities

6. PMD

7. PMD

8. Improved Data Acquisition System An integrated observing system composed of remote-sensing, telemetric and automatic observation platforms has gradually become in shape, which are space-based, airborne and land-sited, so as to measure continuously multiple parameters of the climate system from all dimensions, with higher spatial and temporal resolution and with higher accuracies.

9. Automation of Meteorological Observing Network Astore Balakot Muzaffarabad Parachinar Bannu D.I.Khan Zhob Sibbi Central data archiving Station Automatic Weather Stations Khuzdar Larkana Nawabshah Jiwani Chhor

10. PMD RADAR NETWORK OF PMD 5 cm radar at Islamabad IBD DIK RHK KHI 10 cm radar at FFD Lahore Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore LHR

11. WEATHER & PRECIPITATION MONITORING USING THE EARTH SATELLITES PMD is maintaining satellite ground stations (HRPT, DVB, SADIS) at Islamabad, Quetta and Karachi.

12. Automation of weather Data analysis PMD

13. Automation of weather Data analysis PMD

14. Adoption of New tools and technologies for effective Role

15. internet Client GrADS Matlab client libraries IDL data appears to client as local file, in a standard format (i.e, NetCDF, etc.) etc.. NWP Facilities datasets in any format supported by WMO Formats PMD High Speed Server performs analysis operations supports extended request types for analysis, upload GrADS data GRIB data manages sessions, translates dataset names NetCDF data etc.. Result cache holds temporary data (uploaded, generated by a previous operation, or transferred directly from another server) for use in remote analysis data and requests EncapsulatedAnalysis Requests

16. Meteorological service for Hazard Mitigation Flood Warnings Cyclone Warnings Drought Monitoring Fisheries/Marine Safety Meteorological Information Flash flood monitoring Heat Wave /Cold Wave Prediction Energy Fog /Rain prediction for road safety Water resource management Agromet Advisories

17. LINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIES PMD AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF DEFENCE FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICES MINISTRY OF WATER & POWER AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS R & D & RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES MINISTRY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING & CLIMATOLOGY PLANNING DIVISION & DISASTER MITIGATION ORGANIZATIONS

18. D.O. No. F.1-3-97/FAM Ministry of Water & Water Federal Flood Commission, Riaz Ahmad Islamabad the 15.10.1997 Chairman Dear Doctor Sahib I feel honoured to acknowledge the accuracy of Meteorological Department’s recent flood forecast during August, 1997 record rainfall. Early warnings and consequent pre-releases from Mangla Dam saved the country from flood damages of the tune of approximately 5 billion rupees. With best regards, sd/ (RIAZ AHMAD)

19. D.O. No. F.1-3-97/FAM Ministry of Food, Agriculture & Livestock Government of Pakistan, Mian Abdul Sattar Laleka Islamabad the 28.12.1998 Minister My Dear General Sahib I feel pleasure in informing you that this year the country has been able to save about Rs. 70-80 crores on account of pesticides sprayed on cotton crops, because of the precise and timely weather forecast / advisories of Met. Office. I have already briefed the Prime Minister about this overwhelming success. With best regards, Yours sincerely (Abdul Sattar Laleka)

20. Water & Power Development Authority • National Power Control Centre • No.CENPCC/2080 Islamabad the 27.02.1999 • Director General, • Meteorological Department • H-8/2, Islamabad • Subject: IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER REPORTS FOR LOAD FORECAST. • Thanking you for the proposal attention to our requests. It will be appreciate to explain that daily weather reports help this centre in accurate Load Forecasts for the day. Based on Load Forecasts demand is placed on IPP’s thermal units. • On 2-7-1998 WAPDA saved Rs.12.3 million for not demanding HUBCO unit, as your report had a forecast of Rain at Lahore, which proved correct. • Concerned with weather of each city related to Load in turn, the undersigned shall be grateful if you supply us every minute weather details. • (HABIB ULLAH) • Chief Engineer NPCC

21. PMD Weather Services For MOUNTAINEERING

22. PMD PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System

23. Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Karachi PMD PMD has recently establishment a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) at Karachi with a backup support at its main forecasting office Islamabad.

24. Tracking of TC PMD • PMD made use of various tools and techniques in order to better predict the behaviour of the system (deep depression) especially prediction of track. • Climatology (data, history, precedents) • The synoptic situation • Upper air pressure profile (Isohypse and Isallohypse at different heights) • Upper air wind profile • Satellite imagery/products • Model outputs and Analysis of other regional and global centers, and etc.

25. (Global Maritime Distress & Safety System (GMDSS) PMD PMD AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY UNDER GMDSS AS PER WMO CHARTER

26. PMD Details about Cyclone 03B – YEMYIN (24th -26th June, 2007)

27. Information dissiminated regarding Cyclone 03B First Bulletin June 22, 2007 at 1300 PST Sindh: A strong Monsoon weather system (deep depression) over India is likely to approach Sindh coast in next 36-48 hours. Widespread, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in Sindh especially in Southern Sindh and coastal areas including Karachi. Sea conditions will be extremely rough along Sindh coast. Fishermen are advised to stop fishing activities from 24th afternoon till 27th afternoon. Irrigation authorities may reduce the canal discharges. Balochistan: Later the Monsoon weather system is expected to move towards Balochistan coast. It may produce heavy to very heavy rainfall in Balochistan especially in coastal areas including Gawadar, Jiwani, Pasni, Ormara, Lasbella etc. Hilly areas especially in Southern Balochistan may experience flash floods. Due to very rough sea conditions, fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea from 25-28 June, 2007. Special Bulletins were regularly issued on subsequent development and movement of the tropical cyclone until its dissipation on June 26, 2007.

28. PMD June 26 0300 PST UPDATE: Weather Advisory No.5 for Sindh / Balochistan (Tropical Cyclone Warning) Tropical Cyclone 03B (YEMYIN) now lies at about 100 km* from Karachi and likely to move in a North-Westerly direction in the next 6-12 hours and likely to intensify further and cross Balochistan coast in the evening of 26th June 2007 between 62.0° E 65.5° E Tropical cyclone is likely to cause widespread destruction and coastal flooding along Balochistan coast due to extremely heavy rainfall, gale winds and associated storm surge. Evacuation from coastal towns of Balochistan is highly recommended.

29. First Track Forecast By PMD Observed Track Modified Track Forecast By PMD Tracking info for Tropical Cyclone 03B Time Lat/ Lon Wind(mph) Storm type Pasni

30. PMD Details about Cyclone 02A – GoNU (4th -7th June, 2007)

31. TROPICAL CYCLONE-02A (GONU) WATCH ADVISORY NO:02  This morning Tropical Cyclone 02-A (GONU) moves towards Coast of Oman. It is likely to continue to move in northwesterly direction, during next 12 hours, towards Coast of Oman. Presently none of land areas of Pakistan is under threat. However, the sea conditions are likely to become very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea beyond 20 km from Sindh Cast during next 36 hours. Fishermen of Balochistan coast especially of Gawadar and Jiwani coastal areas are advised to suspend their fishing activities from Tuesday morning Date : 04/06/2007 Time: 2000 PST

32. Cyclone Annimation

33. PMD Early Warning Information Dissemination Flow-chart PMD NDMA PDMA Federal Ministries / Departments / Armed Forces Electronic & Print Media DDMA TMA UCs Communities

34. PMD FLOOD FORECASTING & DISSIMINATION SYSTEM

35. HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND FLOOD FORECASTING PMD Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore is a specialized unit of PMD for this purpose. • Responsibilities • i. Flood Forecasting • ii. River stream flow forecasting • iii. Water Management at Dams specially during Monsoon

36. PMD Flood Forecasting System • 10-cm Doppler Radar at (FFD) Lahore • QPM Radar at Sialkot • Nationwide Network of Weather Surveillance Radars. • Satellite Ground Station • Computer Models • Meteorological Analysis Centre

37. PMD REMOTE SENSING REMOTE SENSING of the rainfall amounts from upper catchments of rivers as input data to the rainfall-runoff models is done through

38. PMD (RANGE & HEIGHT 3D) RANGE 450 KMS

39. FLOOD CATEGORIES

40. CATEGORY - I FLOODS

41. F.F.D LAHORE

42. F.F.D LAHORE

43. F.F.D LAHORE

44. F.F.D LAHORE

45. F.F.D LAHORE

46. F.F.D LAHORE

47. F.F.D LAHORE

48. CATEGORY - II FLOODS

49. D

50. D