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An observation stragegy over the Atlantic

An observation stragegy over the Atlantic. Presentation to SOT meeting Goa, India 26 Feb 2002 By François Gérard, Météo-France. European Meteorological Services. Organisations. Networking². ECMWF (Forecast). EUMETSAT (Space Observation). ECOMET (Data and products Exchange).

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An observation stragegy over the Atlantic

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  1. An observation stragegy over the Atlantic Presentation to SOT meeting Goa, India 26 Feb 2002 ByFrançois Gérard, Météo-France SOT - Goa - 2002

  2. European Meteorological Services Organisations Networking² ECMWF (Forecast) EUMETSAT (Space Observation) ECOMET (Data and products Exchange) EUMETNET EUCOS (Ground basedobservation) EGOS (Oceanobservation) WMO framework (Reqs, guidelines, etc) European Co-operations in Meteorology SOT - Goa - 2002

  3. What is EUCOS? • An observing system designed for the support of short-term GNWP (24-72h) over Europe ; • An evolutive system ; • Technical evolutions in ground based observation techniques ; • Expected space segment evolutions ; • Evolving requirements of GNWP • A mechanism for co-operative definition, implementation and operation of that observing system; • An implementation Programme (1999-2001) having led to the above through • observing system experiments and sensitivity studies, • cost benefit assessments, SOT - Goa - 2002

  4. 26-12 2nd Storm 26-06 27-12 28-12 25-18 24 1st Storm Present oceanic undersampling SOT - Goa - 2002

  5. TO EUCOS extension over sensitive areas • HYPOTHESIS: • Addition of profileor level data in sensitive areas may improve efficiency of the system. • TOOLS: • Climatology of sensitive areas • Pilot projects (ASAP) • Ceiling : 5 M€/yr EUCOS-0.5 Extension with new profile and level data in areas sensitive forweather predictionover Europe Present system SOT - Goa - 2002

  6. Winter sensitivity maxima confirmed Maximum sensitivity layer : 700 – 400 hPa WINTER, North SUMMER, North … Results for the North Europeis alsoasensitive Area !! Eastward shift of maximum sensitivity patterns in summer Towards an area also identified by case studies SOT - Goa - 2002

  7. Guidelines for EUCOS over the Ocean • Increase significantly the number of profiles over the identified sensitive areas by : • Activating additional ASAP and AMDAR units : • From 3000 to 9000 TEMPSHIP messages…. • Approx 5 000 000 AMDAR messages… • Developing of new observation strategies for these systems ; • Surface data (buoys, ships) to be maintained ; • Assess the operational feasibility of targeted observation : • Robotic aircraft demonstration (Aerosonde), • Stratospheric balloons; SOT - Goa - 2002

  8. Variable operation mode MODE 2 MODE 2 MODE 3 MODE 3 MODE 1 EUCOS Programme

  9. Results of the experiment SOT - Goa - 2002

  10. Conclusion of the experiment • Implementing-location dependent operations is feasible and recommended; • The E-ASAP ships are implementing this observation strategy; • Next steps : • Test a time dependent operations using targeting tools, • An experiment is planned under EUCOS for end 2002 or beginning of 2003 SOT - Goa - 2002

  11. Surface observation today Need to co-ordinate and target surface observation SOT - Goa - 2002

  12. Surface Pressure sensitivity North SUMMER WINTER SOT - Goa - 2002

  13. EUCOS requirements… • From NWP requirements • The signal of surface pressure is small on the average, but is likely to increase according to developments in data assimilation and physics modelling • Impact of data from buoys (and ships) on synoptic forecast is obvious on some cases • Results call for developing targeted observation from buoys : • Winter / Summer deployment ; • On request Activation / Desactivation ; • Targeted observation strategies to be developed SOT - Goa - 2002

  14. CONCLUSIONS • Sensitivity and impact studies enable to identify where to increase the observation effort over the Atlantic; • Implementing location-dependent observation from ships is feasible; • Time-sependent targeting has still to be demonstrated : • EUCOS studies programme; • THORPEX offers a framework; • Co-operation increases cost-efficiency of obs systems SOT - Goa - 2002

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