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CPUC Potentials, Goals and Targets (PGT) Study Update

CPUC Potentials, Goals and Targets (PGT) Study Update. October 12, 2012. 2012 Potential Study. Potential Study Overview Potential model based on EE measures historically present in the portfolio or emerging technologies Economic potential is all technical potential that exceeds 0.85 TRC

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CPUC Potentials, Goals and Targets (PGT) Study Update

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  1. CPUC Potentials, Goals and Targets (PGT) Study Update • October 12, 2012

  2. 2012 Potential Study Potential Study Overview • Potential model based on EE measures historically present in the portfolio or emerging technologies • Economic potential is all technical potential that exceeds 0.85 TRC • Gaps and opportunities • Measures that have historically not screened at 0.85 TRC are excluded from economic potential model • Market potential takes a business as usual view of delivery • Based largely on willingness ands awareness analysis of traditional market approaches • Does not model new market transformation strategies or institutions • Inclusion of new technologies or other solutions, such as behavioral initiatives, is limited • Some whole house configurations are being modeled but complete” solutions across trades and vendors prevents “comprehensive, deep” retrofits not modeled • Static compliance rate used in modeling impact from codes

  3. 2012 Potential Study - Incremental Annual Market Potential • Incremental Annual Market Potential • Total technical potential is about 22% of sales. Economic Potential is about 18% of sales. • Annual incremental market potential in 2013 – 2014 is about 1.5% of total IOU sales. • Measure typically found in voluntary programs moving to code, potential for voluntary programs reduced. Incremental Annual Market Potential Impacts 2010 - 2024 by Measure Type Category

  4. 2012 Potential Study – Commercial Sector • Emerging HVAC and lighting technologies provide out year market potential for the commercial Sector • Savings from operational changes (i.e. behavioral changes, commissioning, etc.) largely undefined.

  5. 2012 Potential Study – Residential Sector • Emerging technologies not apparent for residential markets • Estimates for savings from behavioral are low, approaches to achieving behavioral changes are largely undefined

  6. Goals and Targets Study for 2015 Portfolio • Next phase of the goals and targets project considers an expansive scope of California EE enterprise activities.

  7. Goals and Targets Study for 2015 Portfolio The 2015 goals project will address several issues not covered n the 2013 – 2014 goals project Will seek to define how various market drivers will influence how AB 32 objectives are attained or not achieved.

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