1 / 38

The Economy

The Economy. And its possible impact on education and public service?????. Presentation on September 25 and 26, 2008. Dr. Mark V. Joyce, New Hampshire School Administrators’ Association Special Acknowledgement to Russ Thibeault from Applied Economic Systems. The National Economy.

nuri
Download Presentation

The Economy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Economy And its possible impact on education and public service?????

  2. Presentation on September 25 and 26, 2008 Dr. Mark V. Joyce, New Hampshire School Administrators’ Association Special Acknowledgement to Russ Thibeault from Applied Economic Systems

  3. The National Economy • What are the trends? • How may they impact public services?

  4. NY Times 9/24/08

  5. NY Times 9/24/08

  6. USA Today 9/25/08

  7. USA Today 9/25/08

  8. What can we learn from these current trends? Are these indicative of NH? What might the impact be on NH? NHSAA

  9. The NH Economy and its Impact on NH School Districts • What are the current conditions? • What might be ahead? • What can school leaders do to stay ahead of the impact? NHSAA

  10. What are the Current Conditions? • What’s the history of expenditures? What is the historic rate of increase? • Where have costs risen? • Where does the money come from? NHSAA

  11. Expenditures Rise Twice Rate of Inflation Applied Economic Research

  12. Major Categories All Increase Applied Economic Research

  13. All Major Categories Rise Rapidly Applied Economic Systems

  14. Special Programs=Fastest Rate of Increase Applied Economic Research

  15. Education Expenditures Rise, Despite Declining Enrollment Applied Economic Systems

  16. What are the Revenue Sources? Where do they come from? Are they predictable and sustainable? NHSAA

  17. Overview of NH Taxes Interest and Dividends Inheritance and Estate Business Profits Business Enterprise Communications Services Electricity Consumption Meals and Rental Tobacco Real Estate Transfer Timber Gravel State Education Property Utility Local Property Tax NH Department of Revenue

  18. Who really pays for Public Education? Lets look at the increase from 2000-06

  19. Property Taxes Fund The Increase Applied Economic Research

  20. Cost Shifting Applied Economic Research

  21. Reliance on Property Tax Soars as Other Revenue Sources Fall Short Applied Economic Systems

  22. Educational Funding FY 07 St Ed Tax Local State Gen NHSAA

  23. Is the tax obligation spread evenly? Do all communities need state adequacy aid? NHSAA

  24. Total Tax Payment NHSAA

  25. Declining State Revenues NH Center for Public Policy Study NH think tank says $495M budget hole possible 09-04-2008 NH think tank says $495M budget hole possible By Norma Love, Associated Press Writer  |  September 4, 2008 CONCORD, N.H. -- A think tank says New Hampshire could be dealing with up to a $495 million budget hole in three years depending on the economy and steps lawmakers take to address the problem.The New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies says in a report the deficit could be as little as $156 million or as much $495 million. http://www.nhpolicy.org NH Center for Public Policy

  26. NH Center for Public Policy

  27. What might be ahead? A few qualitative observations…. NHSAA

  28. Some Qualitative Observations • State revenues are stressing out (See NHCPP) • Real estate transfer tax is down 15% • Business profits (if not all revenues) tax will probably disappoint • Demographics are unfavorable • Enrollment is declining and population is aging—fewer school advocates • In 1950’s 50+% were in public school K-12; in 2009 100% must be serviced in public schools • Increase in age 55+ housing • “Special needs” students (IDEA, 504, at-risk and more) are on the rise • Falling property values portend higher tax rates • Does not affect spending, per se, but taxpayers are sensitive to the rate • This is contrary to the recent experience of rising values and falling rates, despite higher spending • Slower pace of new construction • Emergence of “tax caps” Applied Economic Research and NHSAA

  29. Some Qualitative Observations Continued….. • Counties (and towns and cities) may demand a larger chunk to fund social services, especially nursing homes, jails, health services, fuel and more • Rising energy costs will compound the impact of rising health insurance and NH Retirement cost pressures • Increased scrutiny of expenditures by public • Weight of the national economy on credit and bond markets will impact public agencies • Renewed efforts to shift and/or reduce state obligations (E.g CACR, reduced aids…..) • And more………….

  30. What can school leaders do to stay ahead of the impact? How do we protect vital services to children and communities? NHSAA

  31. Leaders can….. Realize and understand current conditions. Be transparent with all public groups With both deliberations and possible impacts Explain current revenue streams - especially to Legislators Model “stewardship” efforts Share (and be open to) proven and new ways of saving costs and extending public resources. NHSAA

  32. Is this an opportunity or “bump in the road”? Is this a chance to add needed reforms and improvements that will lead to long-lasting positive impacts on improved student services?

More Related