1 / 24

AGM & Conference of the CAIB

AGM & Conference of the CAIB. FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES. Status of USA Economy. American jobless 10 million, most in 25 years Huge current account deficit - about 6% of GDP, way above the 3% sustainable level Credit crunch and reduced disposable incomes

nuru
Download Presentation

AGM & Conference of the CAIB

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AGM & Conference of the CAIB • FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

  2. Status of USA Economy • American jobless 10 million, most in 25 years • Huge current account deficit - about 6% of GDP, way above the 3% sustainable level • Credit crunch and reduced disposable incomes • Uncertainty regarding the future!!

  3. Status UK Economy • UK jobless 1.8 million • the pound above $2.11 in November 2007 • Nov 11, 2008, the pound fell 0.2 per cent to $1.5580 • Worries over the outlook for the economy • Investors abandoning UK financial stocks.

  4. Aviation Status – UK • British Airways reported a 92% slump in first-half profits yesterday due to high fuel costs and the banking crisis. • BA said it would cut capacity next summer, usually the busiest period for carriers, as it signalled a pessimistic outlook for 2009

  5. Aviation Status – UK & USA • XL Leisure Group termination of service from London Gatwick to Barbados, St Lucia and Antigua • BMI termination of service from Gatwick to to Barbados and Antigua

  6. Aviation Status - Caribbean • December 2008, U.S. airlines have scheduled 17% less service to the Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, compared with December 2007 (Source: OAG flight schedules) • Reduction in service to international markets—including regional turboprop service, mostly by American Eagle, to neighboring Caribbean destinations.

  7. Aviation Status - Caribbean • October 2007, there were 418 weekly flights to international markets; October 2008, only 268 weekly flights (35.9% reduction from 2007). • Number of seats per week to these international markets reduce 34.6% in just one year, from 28,742 last October to 18,799 in Oct 2008 • The cutbacks come at a time when the Caribbean is seeing huge investment and expansion in physical plant.

  8. Aviation Status - Caribbean • Jamaica has entered an agreement with the US legacy carrier American Airlines, to guarantee well over 2,000 additional seats per week to the island • AA service to Grenada and St. Lucia • New nonstop service fro France to the Bahamas from December 2008

  9. Tourism and Economic Impact • Jamaica expects a 30 per cent decrease in stopover arrivals for the upcoming winter tourist season • "We are feeling it here in The Bahamas in a very substantial way. "People are working one and two days a week, many aren't working at all, some have been laid off and others will be laid off." (P.M. Ingraham of the Bahamas)

  10. Tourism and Economic Impact • "What has happened in the world is going to take quite a while to go away.“ (P.M. Ingraham of the Bahamas) • The current situation is quite different from that which existed at 9-11. Then it was an issue of fear and the effects were mostly felt in the USA and Britain to a lesser extent but, people still had money to travel. Today, the issue is one of economic and financial uncertainty, primarily as they relate to jobs and incomes and, these concerns are global.

  11. Tourism and Economic Impact • UN World Tourism Organization (WTO) World Tourism Barometer projects that the first five months of the year were strong enough to propel overall global tourism growth by two percent for the year. • The current troubled economic scenario is expected to continue into 2009

  12. Prognosis for the Future • Past experience has shown that travel and tourism always rebounds from cyclical downturns - sometimes even stronger than before. • governments should provide a supportive policy framework to help stimulate demand and ensure that travel and tourism continues to generate employment

  13. A Look at Trends • international arrivals in 1950 • estimated 806 million in 2005 • average annual growth rate of 6.5% • International tourist arrivals reached 903 million in 2007 • International tourism receipts grew to US$ 856 billion

  14. Projections for Growth • Long-haul travel worldwide projected to grow at 5.4 per cent per year over the period 1995-2020 • international tourist arrivals worldwide 1.6 billion forecast by 2020

  15. Projections for Growth • WTO projects that by 2020 the top three receiving regions • Europe (717 million tourists) • East Asia and the Pacific (397 million) • the Americas (282 million) • Africa (77 million) • the Middle East (69 million) • South Asia (19 million)

  16. Opportunities • Marketing the Caribbean as a single destination • Review and strengthen regulatory framework for investment • Further diversify tourism product - sports, health, culinary, MICE, ancillary services and • markets – India, China, South America • Create vehicles and instruments for greater local participation in tourism investment

  17. Opportunities • Prepare implementable Tourism master Plans to guide the development of the sector • Undertake airline capacity studies to ensure that plans for aviation support plans for expansion in the accommodation sub-sector • Re-focus on tourism public education and awareness

  18. End of Part 1

  19. Projections for Growth • Worldwide, international tourist arrivals grew at around 5% between January and April 2008, compared to the same period of 2007

  20. MARKET PERFORMANCE • United States • Grew by an average 2.8% per annum since 2002 • Up by 1.5% during Jan-Jul 2008 • Unexpected hikes in oil prices almost crippled some airlines • AA: Reduced seating capacity from Sept. – Jan; also down for Europe; fares significantly up • Air Jamaica, Delta and Continental increased capacity; • BMI termination of service to Barbados and Antigua • Tour operators: Bookings down across the board

  21. MARKET PERFORMANCE • CANADA • Grew by an average 10.4% per annum since 2002 • Up by 17.7% during Jan-Jul 2008 • Still among stronger economies in G8; projected GDP growth: 3.1% in 2006 & 2007 • Best performing Caribbean market mainly to Cuba & Dom Rep • Expected to retain resilience in the coming year.

  22. MARKET PERFORMANCE • EUROPE • Grew by an average 3.0% per annum since 2002 • Up by 11.5% during Jan-Jul 2008; • Year started remarkably well but dived; affected by galloping oil prices, etc • General outlook for weak 2008/9 winter

  23. January – September 2008* • Jan-Jul % change • 2008 2008/’07 • Occupancy 67.6% -2.3% • Room Rate $182.71 -7.4% • RevPAR $123.60 -9.5%

More Related