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Tabulation and Dual System of Estimation (DSE) Pres. 9

Tabulation and Dual System of Estimation (DSE) Pres. 9. Tabulations & Dual System of Estimation (DSE). Tabulations: Initial tables Estimated number of non-movers Estimated number of out-movers Estimated number of matched non-movers Estimated number of matched out-movers Estimated in-movers

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Tabulation and Dual System of Estimation (DSE) Pres. 9

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  1. Tabulation and Dual System of Estimation (DSE)Pres. 9 United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009

  2. Tabulations & Dual System of Estimation (DSE) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Tabulations: Initial tables Estimated number of non-movers Estimated number of out-movers Estimated number of matched non-movers Estimated number of matched out-movers Estimated in-movers Estimated number of erroneous inclusions in the census Estimated number of correctly enumerated persons

  3. Basic Tabulations for Coverage Analysis United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Tabulations for coverage estimates (by age group & sex) E-sample estimates of population enumerated in the census P-sample estimates of total population Census omissions & census omission rates Census erroneous inclusions & census erroneous inclusion rates Preliminary DSE of True Population Net census coverage error and net coverage rate Gross census coverage error & rate Final DSE of True Population

  4. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Omissions not a complete story in evaluating a census Census, as earlier stated, can contain duplicates Census can erroneously enumerate some one who should have been enumerated elsewhere Fictitious persons - in some cases Net coverage error Therefore need to estimate True Population

  5. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009

  6. ) Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Chandrasekaran-Deming estimator (1949) assuming independence

  7. ) Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) Where C = census count II = number of persons with insufficient information CE = estimated number of correct enumeration from the E-sample Ne = estimated number of people from the E-sample Np = estimated number of people from the P-sample M = estimated number of persons from the P-sample population who matched to the census United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 The form of DSE used in PES is as follows:

  8. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Coverage rate This is the matched population relative to estimated PES population The DSE is usually applied within substrata/subgroups formed e.g. sex and age - groups

  9. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Erroneous inclusions rate This is equal to the total number of persons erroneously included in census relative to the Census population estimated by E-sample

  10. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Matched population Matched population = Matched non-movers + estimated matched in-movers (thus, in practice, the number of in-movers is assumed to be the same as that of out-movers) Census population estimate Census population = Matched non-movers+ matched out-movers + population erroneously included in the census+ population correctly enumerated in the census but missed in the PES

  11. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Estimated PES population • PES population = Census + omission – Erroneous • PES population = Number of non-movers + in-movers Omission population • Omissions = PES population - (Census – erroneous) = PES population - Census + Erroneous

  12. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Omission rate Is the missed population between the census and PES relative to PES population

  13. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 True population True Population = estimated PES population multiplied by population from the census after subtraction of erroneous enumerations and divided by matched population between the census and the PES

  14. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Net coverage error The difference between what should have been counted, thus True Population and what was counted in the census Net Coverage rate The measure is the total net error relative to the DSE estimate of the true population (an important indicator of the quality of census coverage)

  15. Dual System of Estimation (DSE) (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Gross coverage error The sum of Omissions and Erroneous Inclusions Gross coverage error rate per unit enumeration This is the absolute gross error relative to census enumerated population

  16. Evaluation of Content Error United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009

  17. Examples - Tabulations for Content Error Estimates United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Sex as reported in the census and as reported in the PES for matched persons Age as reported in the census and as reported in the PES for matched persons Family relationship as reported in PES for matched persons NOTE: PES should check content errors only for those items that support PES procedures

  18. Evaluation of Content Error United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Net difference rate (NDR) The NDR is the difference between the number of cases in the census and number of cases in the PES that fall under a category (e.g. age-group) relative to the total number of matched persons in all response categories

  19. Evaluation of Content Error (contd.) United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009 Index of inconsistency It is a relative number of cases for which the response varied between the census and PES. In a n x n table, numbers in diagonal cells show consistency (agreement). Off diagonal numbers represent inconsistency. This is calculated for each response from a category

  20. Evaluation of Content Error (contd.) Other measures include: • It is Aggregate index of inconsistency • Gross difference rate • Rate of agreement United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009

  21. How to interpret content error measures United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009

  22. Thank You! United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009

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