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Gary A. Parkhurst, GISP Advisor: Dr. Todd Bacastow GEOG 596A: Capstone Peer Review Spring 2014

Predicting the Geographical Landscape of United States born professional hockey players in the year 2025. Gary A. Parkhurst, GISP Advisor: Dr. Todd Bacastow GEOG 596A: Capstone Peer Review Spring 2014. Overview. Question & Motivation Background Assumptions Data Discovery Methodology

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Gary A. Parkhurst, GISP Advisor: Dr. Todd Bacastow GEOG 596A: Capstone Peer Review Spring 2014

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  1. Predicting the Geographical Landscape of United States born professional hockey players in the year 2025. Gary A. Parkhurst, GISP Advisor: Dr. Todd Bacastow GEOG 596A: Capstone Peer Review Spring 2014

  2. Overview • Question & Motivation • Background • Assumptions • Data Discovery • Methodology • Anticipated Results • Timeline • References • Acknowledgements

  3. Question & Motivation • Question • Does Florida youth ice hockey consistently competing and winning National Tournaments signal a larger trend of youth ice hockey in “non-traditional” areas? • Why this topic? • Undergraduate degree in sport management • Worked 2 years in professional hockey for the Pittsburgh Penguins • Coach multiple youth hockey teams in Florida • Teams from Florida are competing and winning on a National Level against teams from traditional Northern states – why? • I believe that GIS and it’s impact on sports is in its infancy. Florida Fire Ants Mite A National Championship team photo in Edina, Minnesota. (March 2014) • Recent Notable Florida Youth Hockey Teams • Tampa Scorpions Tier 2 U16 AA – 2013 National Champions • Florida Alliance 2004 AAA - #1 Nationally ranked Independent team in the United States • Florida Fire Ants 2005 Mite A – 2013/2014 AAU National Champions

  4. Background – GIS & Sports

  5. Background – Professional Hockey • Professional Players: For the purpose of this study, a professional player is defined as any player who played at least one game in one of the five professional leagues in North America. • Professional Leagues: There are 5 professional hockey leagues in North America. • National Hockey League (NHL) • American Hockey League (AHL) • East Coast Hockey League (ECHL) • Central Hockey League (CHL) • Southern Professional Hockey League (SPHL) • Total of 100 Professional teams across all 5 leagues • 2,843 players played Professional Hockey during the 2013/2014 season • Miracle on Ice: The 1980 United States Olympic Team and their improbable gold medal introduced ice hockey to Non-Traditional states across America. 1980 United States Olympic Team 2014 United States Olympic Team Minnesota - 32% New York – 24% Michigan – 12% Wisconsin – 12% Connecticut – 8% New Jersey – 8% Missouri – 4% Minnesota - 60% Massachusetts – 20% Michigan – 10% Wisconsin – 10%

  6. Background Professional Teams National Hockey League American Hockey League East Coast Hockey League Central Hockey League Southern Professional Hockey League 2014 Professional Ice Hockey Players (per state) 52 - 123 9 - 15 27 - 51 1 - 8 16 - 26 0

  7. Assumptions • Increase of Players - Assume you will see an increase in the number of U.S. born hockey players from non-traditional hockey states (like Florida) in the next decade. • Culture Change - Assume the culture has been transplanted to warm weather states from parents that have relocated from northern states. • Demographics – Ice Hockey is a very expensive sport to develop elite players. Demographics can be used to study areas that have developed elite players in the past and apply that to predict similar areas in non-traditional markets .

  8. Data Discovery • Literature Review • Identify previous studies • Newspaper Articles • Magazine Articles • Polling Data • Florida hockey parents poll to determine place of birth and transplantation of hockey culture • Athlete Demographic Data • Professional Hockey players place of birth • 25 year NHL draft history of U.S. born selected players • Miscellaneous Data • Census Data for anomaly areas • U.S. Ice Rink database

  9. Data – Literature Review This article is printed in the April/May 2014 USA Hockey Magazine. USA Hockey sponsors “Try Hockey For Free” days around the country to attract youth to the sport. A total of 28,446 kids in the United State took advantage of this USA Hockey initiative. USA Hockey publishes a magazine for all of their registered members. The magazine is published every two months and profiles stories related to USA youth hockey while also promoting participation. Article in the Sun Sentinel profiling a youth hockey player who was potentially making history in being the first born and raised Floridian ice hockey player to be selected in the National Hockey League draft. I found multiple articles similar to this in the past few years. Florida geographic parents poll

  10. Data – Hockey “Culture” Poll • Goal: To determine if the “hockey” culture from the Northern states has permeated to the Southern states by way of parents of youth hockey players. • Find website to design and publish a poll while also tracking the results • Distribute through social media and regional hockey directors to parents of youth hockey players in Florida • Gather, Analyze and Visualize results

  11. Data – Athlete Demographics • Collect & Analyze Athlete Demographic information • Collect birth place information for all players that played at least one game in one of the five professional ice hockey leagues in North America during the 2013/14 season. • Collect all NHL draft information for the last 25 - 30 years. This information is important to perform a temporal analysis 2013 Draft Results – 1st Round (Picks 1-16)

  12. Data – Miscellaneous • Collect & Analyze Miscellaneous Information • Identify the location of all ice rinks within the United States. These will need to be geolocated. Normalize ice rinks by population. • Collect Census data for anomaly/call out areas identified through research. I will most likely need to use zip codes since I do not have street level addresses. • Identify a dependable batch geocoder. Listing of all Ice Rinks located within the United States.

  13. Methodology – Temporal Comparison 1980 – 1999 NHL Draft Density (Notional Data) 2000 – 2013 NHL Draft Density (Notional Data) • Temporal Comparison of United States born ice hockey players drafted in the National Hockey League draft. • Use historical data to track the geographic evolution of U.S born ice hockey players. • Measure historical growth in non-traditional markets and predict future growth. • Animated output to show progression.

  14. Methodology- Identify & Investigate Anomalies 2000 – 2013 NHL Draft Density (Notional Data) California Florida • Questions • Can Census data be used to find demographic data that contributes to these anomalies? • Do like conditions exist in both traditional and non-traditional areas? • Has an NHL team in this market recently won a Stanley Cup? Has the team consistently won producing a culture of winning in the city resulting in attracting new fans to the game? • Have external factors such as the influence of USA Hockey contributed to growth with programs aimed at growing the game?

  15. Methodology – Point Pattern Analysis (PPA) Clustered Dispersed Random • Point Pattern Analysis of selected areas • Use Nearest Neighbor Distance Analysis to determine the spatial arrangement of points within the defined area of study. • Identify whether the points are Clustered, Dispersed, or Random. • Use Monte Carlo method to randomly generate iterations of patterns in order to assess our observed phenomena. • Use PPA for a comparison analysis on both traditional areas (Minnesota) and non-traditional areas. (Florida)

  16. Anticipated Results • Expect to see a rise in players from warm weather states making an impact on professional hockey and major division I ice hockey programs. • Expect to see that the northern culture of ice hockey has been transplanted to southern “warm” weather states by parents of current youth ice hockey players. • Expect that the ice rink normalized by population will show that there is more ice available for northern kids. • Expect that using buffers around cities that have won a Stanley Cup is not a good indicator for an increase in production of professional ice hockey players from that area. • Expect the Point Pattern Analysis to demonstrate clustering around established ice hockey rinks.

  17. Timeline • Presentation • Identify appropriate platform and audience to present findings. • Analysis & Final Prep • Perform Point Pattern Analysis • Identify Anomalies • Finalize results • Complete Project • Data Discovery • (Cont) & Analysis • Identify previous studies • Newspaper Articles • Magazine Articles • Finalize Poll Results • Start Analysis • Data Discovery • Professional Hockey players demographics • 25 year NHL draft history of U.S. born selected players • Design & Distribute Poll

  18. References "2013 NHL Draft." Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 24 Apr. 2014. Web. 06 May 2014. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NHL_Draft>. "A Record Number of Kids Give Hockey A Try." USA Hockey 1 Apr. 2014: 08. Print. "American Hockey League." The American Hockey League. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Apr. 2014. <http://theahl.com/>. "Central Hockey League." Central Hockey League. N.p., n.d. Web. 10 Apr. 2014. <http://www.centralhockeyleague.com/>. "COLORBREWER 2.0." ColorBrewer: Color Advice for Maps. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Apr. 2014. "East Coast Hockey League." The ECHL. N.p., n.d. Web. 25 Apr. 2014. <http://www.echl.com/>. "Free Online Surveys." Create a Free Online Survey, Web Poll or Quiz. 1 Million+ Users!N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Apr. 2014. <http://freeonlinesurveys.com/>. Gorten, Steve. "Boca Teen Could Make History in NHL Draft." Sun Sentinel. N.p., 21 June 2010. Web. 25 Apr. 2014. "Ice Rinks Listing in the United States (USA)." Ice Rinks Listing in the United States (USA). N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Apr. 2014. <http://www.local-data.com/ice-rinks/>. McGrew, J. Chapman., and Charles B. Monroe. An Introduction to Statistical Problem Solving in Geography. Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2000. Print. "NHL.com - The National Hockey League." NHL.com - The National Hockey League. N.p., n.d. Web. 1 Apr. 2014. Richards, George. "On Frozen Pond." South Florida's Newest Export: Hockey Players. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Apr. 2014. Routen, Barbara. "Brandon’s Fire Ants Win National Ice Hockey Championship." TBO.com. N.p., 8 Apr. 2014. Web. 08 Apr. 2014. Shaw, Warren. "Canadian Prep School Accepts Florida Youth Hockey Player." Examiner.com. N.p., 11 Apr. 2011. Web. 25 Apr. 2014. "SPHL Southern Professional Hockey League | Www.thesphl.com | Pointstreak Sites." SPHL Southern Professional Hockey League | Www.thesphl.com | Pointstreak Sites. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Apr. 2014. <http://www.thesphl.com/>. Trotter, Dave. "Florida 500: The History of Ice Hockey in Florida." The Political Hurricane Florida Political Blog. N.p., 6 Jan. 2013. Web. 25 Apr. 2014. Warrener, Andy. "Youth Hockey Winning despite Limitations." Tampa Bay Times. N.p., 18 Apr. 2014. Web. 18 Apr. 2014.

  19. Acknowledgments • Dr. Todd Bacastow • My wife and kids

  20. Questions? Contact Information Gary A. Parkhurst gpark91@gmail.com

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