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Inflation and Monetary Policy Analysis

Explore the relationship between money supply, inflation, and government policies through historical data and economic theories. Understand the impact of monetary authorities on inflation rates and the implications of various policy approaches.

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Inflation and Monetary Policy Analysis

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  1. Chapter 24 Money and Inflation

  2. Money and Inflation: Evidence • Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon • Whenever a country’s inflation rate is extremely high for a sustained period of time, its rate of money supply growth is also extremely high • Reduced-form evidence

  3. FIGURE 1 Money Supply and Price Level in the German Hyperinflation Source: Frank D. Graham, Exchange, Prices and Production in Hyperinflation: Germany, 1920–25 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1930), pp. 105–106.

  4. Views of Inflation • Money Growth • High money growth produces high inflation • Fiscal Policy • Persistent high inflation cannot be driven by fiscal policy alone • Supply Shocks • Supply-side phenomena cannot be the source of persistent high inflation • Conclusion: always a monetary phenomenon

  5. FIGURE 2 Response to a Continually Growing Money Supply

  6. FIGURE 3 Response to a One-Shot Permanent Increase in Government Expenditure

  7. FIGURE 4 Response to a Supply Shock

  8. Origins of Inflationary Monetary Policy • Cost-push inflation • Cannot occur without monetary authorities pursuing an accommodating policy • Demand-pull inflation • Budget deficits • Can be the source only if the deficit is persistent and is financed by creating money rather than by issuing bonds

  9. Origins of Inflationary Monetary Policy (cont’d) • Two underlying reasons • Adherence of policymakers to a high employment target • Presence of persistent government budget deficits

  10. FIGURE 5 Cost-Push Inflation with an Activist Policy to Promote High Employment

  11. FIGURE 6 Demand-Pull Inflation: The Consequence of Setting Too Low an Unemployment Target

  12. FIGURE 7 Interest Rates and the Government Budget Deficit

  13. FIGURE 8 Inflation and Money Growth, 1960–2008 Source: Economic Report of the President; www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.txt.

  14. FIGURE 9 Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 1960–2008 Source: Economic Report of the President.

  15. FIGURE 10 Unemployment and the Natural Rate of Unemployment, 1960–2008 Sources: Economic Report of the President and Congressional Budget Office.

  16. The Discretionary/Nondiscretionary Policy Debate • Advocates of discretionary policy regard the self-correcting mechanism as slow • Policy lags slow activist policy • Data lag • Recognition lag • Legislative lag • Implementation lag • Effectiveness lag

  17. The Discretionary/Nondiscretionary Policy Debate (cont’d) • Advocates of nondiscretionary policy believe government should not get involved • Discretionary policy produces volatility in both the price level and output

  18. FIGURE 11 The Choice Between Discretionary and Nondiscretionary Policy

  19. Expectations and the Discretionary/Nondiscretionary Debate • If expectations about policy matter, discretionary policy with high employment targets may lead to inflation • Nondiscretionary policy may prevent inflation and discourage leftward shifts in short-run aggregate supply that lead to excessive unemployment • Must be credible • Constant-money-growth-rate rule

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